November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

Very cool loop of the massive cold contrast of Nov 1950:

 

https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/status/793403087016828929

[westMJim]

This is a wrap up for GRR for the month of October.

 With October 2016 now in the record books it’s time to look and see how it was here in Grand Rapids. For the month, the mean temperature was 54.7° (+3.7°) Making it the warmest October since 2008.  The warmest high was 79° on the 5^th and the coldest low was 33° on the 32th making this October the first time since 1971 that GRR did not officially have a 32° reading in October and we have a good this year being the latest year without a 32 reading since 1940 (November 6^th) in fact the all-time record of November 14^th 1918 is in play.  There was 6.15” of precipitation (+2.89”) and no snow was reported at GRR.  On a side note there are still a lot of leaves on the trees and the color is still good. This is by far the latest I can remember this many leaves still on the trees this late in the year.  I have a good reference point as we just had Halloween and my birthday is November 7^th

[westMJim]

Very cool loop of the massive cold contrast of Nov 1950:

 

https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/status/793403087016828929

November 1950 was one massive flip. At GRR (the old airport) November 1st high was 81° on November 11th the high was 30° with 3.5" of snow and THEN on November 24th the high was 11° and it then dropped all the way down to -10° with 7" of snow on the ground. The lows of -9 on the 24 and -10 on the 25 are the only times it has been reported to be below 0 in Grand Rapids in November.

[Grizzcoat]

Both DSM and MSP are going to smash the records  for the  Latest Initial Occurrence of 32F degrees or lower--

 

DSM was 33F on Oct 13th. Doesn't count. The record is NOV 11th 1882. It's going to be crushed. Interestingly the latest initial occurrence of 28F or lower is 11/26/2009. Winter of 09/10 here was awesome with the snowiest DEC on record at 28.3 -- until the NWS a few years ago decided to add some snow to the 26.9 that happened in 2000 that moved 2009 into 2nd place. Shystiers...

 

MSP is NOV 7th 1900 for the latest initial occurrence of 32F or lower...  going to be smashed...

[gosaints]

torching away

[westMJim]

I am getting ready to go outside and enjoy the nice November day. It’s now up to 71° with a 60° DP can you day warm and a touch humid in November?

[james1976]

Both DSM and MSP are going to smash the records for the Latest Initial Occurrence of 32F degrees or lower--

 

DSM was 33F on Oct 13th. Doesn't count. The record is NOV 11th 1882. It's going to be crushed. Interestingly the latest initial occurrence of 28F or lower is 11/26/2009. Winter of 09/10 here was awesome with the snowiest DEC on record at 28.3 -- until the NWS a few years ago decided to add some snow to the 26.9 that happened in 2000 that moved 2009 into 2nd place. Shystiers...

 

MSP is NOV 7th 1900 for the latest initial occurrence of 32F or lower... going to be smashed...

Are in dsm area?? Sorry if i asked before lol.

[james1976]

Yup local met last night said all of Nov is supposed to be above avg. We'll see

[Tom]

Getting gas in Iowa City! Not as boring of a drive as I thought. Davenport/Cedar Rapids area was kinda nice with the hills. On to DSM!

[Grizzcoat]

Are in dsm area?? Sorry if i asked before lol.

Yep-- just 20 minutes to the W. 

[james1976]

Getting gas in Iowa City! Not as boring of a drive as I thought. Davenport/Cedar Rapids area was kinda nice with the hills. On to DSM!

Wait til u get to Nebraska lol

[Grizzcoat]

Getting gas in Iowa City! Not as boring of a drive as I thought. Davenport/Cedar Rapids area was kinda nice with the hills. On to DSM!

Too bad I'am working mids and will be crashing soon. I'am 5 minutes from I-80 and wouldn't mind meeting you.- Safe travels where ever that takes you. 

[OKwx2k4]

The 12z GFS caught the cold wave again and brings it down hard on day 7ish. May not get to set my latest frost record after all and may do the 32 and 28 on the same day. I like it and I kinda believe it based on patterning. Let's get it into the day 5 range though.

[Niko]

People out in shorts jogging, playing ball, riding bikes...wow. Tomorrow will be a cooler day, but still above normal.

[james1976]

The 12z GFS caught the cold wave again and brings it down hard on day 7ish. May not get to set my latest frost record after all and may do the 32 and 28 on the same day. I like it and I kinda believe it based on patterning. Let's get it into the day 5 range though.

Yeah and it has a cutoff L with some snow for a few of us. GFS all over the place. However....gotta say its been showing a system around the 11th for several days now.

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah and it has a cutoff L with some snow for a few of us. GFS all over the place. However....gotta say its been showing a system around the 11th for several days now.

Yeah, I saw the date wrong. I think it was day 10 or 11.

[jaster220]

Did lunch at Lake Michigan and I'll say it felt like summer again - truly hard to not play hooky the rest of the day! A flip now's gonna be brutal if it happens.

[Niko]

Did lunch at Lake Michigan and I'll say it felt like summer again - truly hard to not play hooky the rest of the day! A flip now's gonna be brutal if it happens.

When it gets brutally cold, its gonna be a shocker to our system.

[Tom]

Passing up DSM! 73F with high cirrus clouds dimming the sunlight. Feels like early summer. Grass is still so green here with more bare trees than back home. Onto the "Omaha dome"...

[Niko]

As far as colors are concern, I am at peak right now and if the wind blows really hard at some point, then, I will be at bare. Although, there are some trees that are already bare.

[jaster220]

November 1950 was one massive flip. At GRR (the old airport) November 1st high was 81° on November 11th the high was 30° with 3.5" of snow and THEN on November 24th the high was 11° and it then dropped all the way down to -10° with 7" of snow on the ground. The lows of -9 on the 24 and -10 on the 25 are the only times it has been reported to be below 0 in Grand Rapids in November.

 

When I first moved to TC circa 1990, an older gent was rambling about how they were out on a frozen GT Bay at Thanksgiving at some time in the past. Now, that bay rarely freezes in the coldest of winters, so I thought he'd lost some marbles over the years. But, since the internet has allowed so much history and knowledge I see that indeed he was most likely talking about 1950. There was obviously some very cold air available really early that autumn for that month to even have been possible! Really fascinating stuff 

[jaster220]

Actually, while 1950 probably holds long-term November chill records, November of 2005 is a more contemporary example of a solid flip. I was living/working near Saginaw that year and it was 71ºF on the 5th, and then only managed 20ºF on the 25th! Coldest Turkey Day I can remember in my life outside of my years in the Northland.

 

 

[jaster220]

More folks seeing deja-vu all over again:

 

 

[westMJim]

While not up to the 1950 standards on the warmth.

 

The high at the airport so far of 73° will make this the warmest November 1^st since 1990 when it reached 74.  While the record high for today here in Grand Rapids is very warm 81 set in 1950 (that is the all time record high for the month) but todays high (so far) of 73 will be good for 4^th place behind the 81 in 1950, 76 in 1944 and that 74 set in 1990.  But note just last November GRR had 4 days in a row of 73, 76, 75, 72 and then a day of 67° that probably was the longest streak of such warm days in November.

[Tom]

Driving through Omaha! Now I know why NE is called..."the good life"

[jaster220]

 Hot off the BSR presses:

 

 

 

[james1976]

Storm rolls thru where?

[Tom]

@ CentralNeb, Approaching your home town of Kearney! I must say, if it wasn't 67F outside now, it looks like a winter storm is approaching with the sun setting behind a thick deck of cirrus clouds, as well as all the bare trees around here and brown vegetation. This state isn't as boring as say, NM or the TX Pan Handle. Next stop Colorado!

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks we kinda of like it. Actually went to college in Kearney (unk) and live and teach in Holdrege 30 miles southwest. Safe travels. Watch the landscape change as you head west. Less and less trees

[Tom]

Thanks we kinda of like it. Actually went to college in Kearney (unk) and live and teach in Holdrege 30 miles southwest. Safe travels. Watch the landscape change as you head west. Less and less trees

Whoops! My bad. Thought it was Kearney. Anyway, I can imagine what that blizzard last year did to the landscape out here and the highways! Hope you get some snow soon!

[Niko]

More folks seeing deja-vu all over again:

 

20161101 BAMwx on Nov 1950 flip to cold.PNG

Nice analog!

[Niko]

 Hot off the BSR presses:

 

20161101 BAMwx using BSR.PNG

I would like to see a huge blizzard unfold right after Thanksgiving. I know it will affect travelers out there, but, on the other side of the coin, it would be a cool phenomenon.

[Niko]

@ CentralNeb, Approaching your home town of Kearney! I must say, if it wasn't 67F outside now, it looks like a winter storm is approaching with the sun setting behind a thick deck of cirrus clouds, as well as all the bare trees around here and brown vegetation. This state isn't as boring as say, NM or the TX Pan Handle. Next stop Colorado!

How long is your projected trip Tom? Are you driving non-stop?

[Tom]

How long is your projected trip Tom? Are you driving non-stop?

2-3 days, we plan on stopping somewhere outside of Denver, then head towards the mountains thru Aspen, Grand Junction and then south on hwy 550 towards Durango, CO. Never took this route before, it's supposed to be very scenic. Hope there is some snow on the mountains!

 

If it's nice in CO, might spend another night and then down to NM/AZ the next day.

[OKwx2k4]

I have a stupid and random question. Has anyone ever noticed how the chart we're all familiar with on "global warming" mirrors the last 100 years of global corn production? Weirdness.

[Grizzcoat]

06Z Gfs much cooler to even cold in the long range compared to recent runs. I hope it's a trend that continues on future runs... Also  Euro EPS Control has an interesting system in its long range....

[james1976]

06Z Gfs much cooler to even cold in the long range compared to recent runs. I hope it's a trend that continues on future runs... Also Euro EPS Control has an interesting system in its long range....

I wonder if there will be a system somewhere with such a drastic temp change.

[james1976]

06Z Gfs much cooler to even cold in the long range compared to recent runs. I hope it's a trend that continues on future runs... Also Euro EPS Control has an interesting system in its long range....

What was it showing for a system? GFS is trying to get something with the cold dump around 14-15th.

[Grizzcoat]

A little ways out and too warm,, but it is interesting with cold air coming

[jaster220]

Storm rolls thru where?

 

The correlation is a trough/storm in the central CONUS. I looked for the overlay map but can't find it. I'll post it if I do.

 

I wonder if there will be a system somewhere with such a drastic temp change.

 

Could be more than one system. By that, did you mean a major system or monster system feeding off the early season temp contrasts? I believe that is what the image of the strong storms in the Bering Sea was getting at. Projected out about 18 days later would equal a strong low pressure over the CONUS on/around the 25th.