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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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I'm sure that this Hashtag will age like milk! 😆

However! The Climate Prediction Center's Monthly Outlook suggests above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures for November for the PNW!

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Since the summer I’ve had a feeling.

E4A13C2E-B0F5-419F-8E76-AE778039F193.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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Pretty ridiculous the euro actually shows more snow than the gfs does for my house. I’ve definitely lost a bit of skepticism regarding the chances of something legit happening but lots of time left for things to change. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

I'm actually not listening to anything tonight....I'm so stoked.  Usually Pink Floyd.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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One day actually has a high of 34 degrees…3 sub 40 highs. We will see what the EPS has for us. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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The EPS is way better vs the 12z.  Way stronger and further east with the crucial part of the block.

1667714400-Lx7uElQu94k.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Listening to Gaga, Madonna, Fleetwood Mac. Eclectic combo, I know 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

1667800800-aLBEtxPF9bA.png

455626803_TigerWins.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

1667800800-aLBEtxPF9bA.png

Looks like it’s about 3 miles too far west. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Listening to Gaga, Madonna, Fleetwood Mac. Eclectic combo, I know 

Great combo. I'm all about the retro synthwave music which takes a lot of inspiration from this. Would love to be in a proper snow-ready vehicle, driving down the road with neon lights in the snow all around.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

Might have some water. Don't smoke. Been working off/on with several works in progress bass beats/instrumentals with one epic piano production, strings, and bass. Trying really hard to find some focus and purpose in life again.

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3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

OG Tiger before he was assaulted by his Swedish wife😁

The guy really should've gone full Derek Jeter and stayed single for a long time.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I have new front brakes and tires. I'm ready to rock.

Me too, I installed new spark plugs, brakes, new wipers for rain/ice/snow, antifreeze. I'm so ready. Only thing missing is new tires but I usually just call in from work or school. Granted it's a Mustang so I'm gonna have quite a ride in snowy conditions regardless haha! 

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The EPS is way better vs the 12z.  Way stronger and further east with the crucial part of the block.

1667714400-Lx7uElQu94k.png

That's a great sign. It wouldn't surprise me to see the next few EURO runs trend colder with the air making its way into the Columbia River Basin like what the GFS is showing.

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Might have some water. Don't smoke. Been working off/on with several works in progress bass beats/instrumentals with one epic piano production, strings, and bass. Trying really hard to find some focus and purpose in life again.

Been working with chord progressions that have that suspended resolutions.

I wish Michael Snyder could reach an agreement to use the NFL on Fox theme for his intro with major regional events like this one being depicted.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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  • Longtimer

Don’t forget to dress appropriately next week! 

CE248702-9FB2-4FA6-A238-67F7D6D99190.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z EPS looks like modified arctic air spilling into the Columbia Basin Day 7 to 7.5... Confirm?

It does.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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If I had a virtual bar, I would open it up right now for everybody here. Can't send my vodka through the interwebs tho.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 13 (Most recent: Dec 2, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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Another Nina with an exceptional November event was 1921.  That winter was absolutely fantastic overall.  The others are 1955 and 2010.  Both had top tier events later in the winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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22 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So what the fuckk is everybody drinking, smoking, listening to for the night shift tonight?

I have two coding projects due for class later today while having the Xmas playlist go in the background, it's on Let It Snow right now.

But it's real hard to focus right now lol ☃️

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All those moments will be lost in time. . .
like tears in snow.
 ❞

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EPS shows a double surge of cold.  The second round is much improved over the 12z run.  Very exciting.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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@Rubus Leucodermis talked about this the other day and many others as well…sometimes the gfs isn’t accurate in terms of surface details and snow maps (definitely still way overdoing it likely) but it can catch onto pattern changes way before the other models do. Seems like there’s a distinct possibility it was right again but also just egregiously bad at surface details like temps/snow maps ect. Same thing happened in December 2021. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

@Rubus Leucodermis talked about this the other day and many others as well…sometimes the gfs isn’t accurate in terms of surface details and snow maps (definitely still way overdoing it likely) but it can catch onto pattern changes way before the other models do. Seems like there’s a distinct possibility it was right again but also just egregiously bad at surface details like temps/snow maps ect. Same thing happened in December 2021. 

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another Nina with an exceptional November event was 1921.  That winter was absolutely fantastic overall.  The others are 1955 and 2010.  Both had top tier events later in the winter.

2010 was fun. 

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I think the GFS doesn't recognize the Canadian Rockies or something. lol

Oh yeah it has some serious issues…but there’s times like these where it catches onto the pattern in the extended range better for whatever reason. Not always but there’s been some noteable cases of this before. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-34

Coldest min-24

Sub 40 highs-3

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-10

Total snowfall-5.2”

Monthly rainfall-0.56”

Wet season rainfall-7.76”

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4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

2010 blast was a rarity. I had back to back morning lows of 11 degrees. It was a true northern blast with no backdoor cold support at all. No Gorge wind. Notta.

I remember following that. There was more snow then forecasted. It was dumping snow and windy, it was crazy 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2010/11/humility.html?m=0

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In case anyone was wondering, here are the top 10 coldest highs for BLI, SEA, and PDX in the first half of November. Even if we squeak out a high below 40F we would be in relatively rarified air.

(Edit: For some reason BLI is missing high temp data for 1955/11/12 and 1955/11/13)

781995510_ScreenShot2022-11-01at12_45_05AM.png.0212d2c77f31da1c7355fcbfefcb5742.png

2025719545_ScreenShot2022-11-01at12_45_31AM.png.d95a898ecfa65aa76962bedd51a58e9c.png

2054015946_ScreenShot2022-11-01at12_48_55AM.png.ae5a90d0bfadd36595972539732c50c0.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 7.3"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75"

2022-23: Tr (11/7: Tr, 11/29: Flakes, 11/30: Flakes, 12/1: Flakes, 12/2: Tr)

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