November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Anti Marine Layer]

Must suck to live in Utqiagvik. Tomorrow is their last sunrise/sunset until January 23

[Cascadia_Wx]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I thought they tied it the 2nd time in November 2014? 

I doubt it. Though it is possible. I would be surprised if this month isn't our most anomalously cold overall. Though if we have a January at the 1961-1990 baseline we will probably all want to throw a parade. 

It was nice talking to you today Andrew 

[High Desert Mat?]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I thought they tied it the 2nd time in November 2014? 

I doubt it. Though it is possible. I would be surprised if this month isn't our most anomalously cold overall. Though if we have a January at the 1961-1990 baseline we will probably all want to throw a parade. 

If I recall correctly it was mid December of 2013 and somewhere in the February 10th range of 2014 right after the big snows here. I think between the 7th and 9th I recorded about 32”. Then it cleared and got cold. I remember it vividly since it happened right after the Hawks won the super bowl. Great year. Then I had my daughter March 8th, a month later. 

[TacomaWx]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall though, if winter is a roll of the dice, then how many times do we get to roll? In an active year it just seems like we get a lot more rolls. 

I agree…the active route is overall better. 

[TacomaWx]

Could go from one of the wettest falls I’ve recorded last year which fell just slightly short of 2016…to one of the driest this year. We need 4.60” of rain to pass 2018 (8.70”) and right now it’s not looking like we will get there…currently at 4.10”. 

[MossMan]

PNA still looking to dip a bit. 

[Skagit Weather]

30 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Must suck to live in Utqiagvik. Tomorrow is their last sunrise/sunset until January 23

I mean it's not all bad up there. Since July 1st they've had two whole days with a high above 60F! That's almost enough to go outside without a coat!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I mean it's not all bad up there. Since July 1st they've had two whole days with a high above 60F! That's almost enough to go outside without a coat!

I go outside without a coat if it's like 45F.

[Terreboner]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

PNA still looking to dip a bit. 

That's not bad at all.  A lot of favorable members in there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

51/26 at SLE 48/23 at EUG today I believe… chilly. 

[Cloud]

South Buffalo is about to get shellack with lake effect snow for the next 48 hours w/ 2-4 FEET of snow. This prompted the NFL to move the Buffalo home game to be moved to Detroit. 

[Cloud]

3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

People wanted the Pacific shut down.  They wanted a winter with a blocky pattern.   Now that we are getting it, they're complaining. 

Quite amazing really. lol 

[Snownerd3000]

16 minutes ago, Cloud said:

South Buffalo is about to get shellack with lake effect snow for the next 48 hours w/ 2-4 FEET of snow. This prompted the NFL to move the Buffalo home game to be moved to Detroit. 

No Fun League strikes again. 

[Snownerd3000]

13 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Quite amazing really. lol 

We only want blocking that benefits us

[Cloud]

16 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

No Fun League strikes again. 

This is why college football will always be great.. Look how fun this looks. It was a beautiful snowstorm in Michigan yesterday. And the commentating was perfection. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks I had a max gust of 42 according to my weather station.  By the looks of the mess in my yard and the blown over fence (not rotten) that might be low.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Terreboner said:

That's not bad at all.  A lot of favorable members in there.

We're going to be fine.  The ensemble means are advertising a major retrogression of the blocking coming up.  Our cold blocky winters usually feature the blocking jumping around between 170W and 130W or thereabouts.

[Seattle]

Looks like 51/36 at KSEA today with light to steady east wind all day. Looks like it should be a touch cooler tomorrow to return highs to the 40s.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am okay with a January 2013-esque month. At least it was legitimately cold. January 2022 on the other hand was just a waste, couldn't even get a decent inversion. 

This month has been fine because at least we had the active start... As long as things break down and get active again next week. 

Overall though, if winter is a roll of the dice, then how many times do we get to roll? In an active year it just seems like we get a lot more rolls. 

Hasn't this been the snowiest starting cold season on record for your location?  Pretty good start for sure.  People already forget the gargantuan trough we had earlier in the month.

Up here this month has featured two significant wind events already as well.  The west wind blast in Snohomish County and now the east wind blast today.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Looks like 51/36 at KSEA today with light to steady east wind all day. Looks like it should be a touch cooler tomorrow to return highs to the 40s.

The weekend is supposed to be pretty nippy as this cool continental air settles in here and an inversion develops.

[snow_wizard]

BTW...they updated the winter forecast today and it's still the same for D, J, F and actually a higher likelihood of below normal for J, F, M than the previous version.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

BTW...they updated the winter forecast today and it's still the same for D, J, F and actually a higher likelihood of below normal for J, F, M than the previous version.

Doesn’t the MJO look to trend pretty quick out of 7 to 8?

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Doesn’t the MJO look to trend pretty quick out of 7 to 8?

The forecasts have been showing it might collapse after getting to 7.  It is very hard to predict anything beyond 10 days or so.

[Dave]

Snowing in Green Bay for the Thursday night football game. It's on Amazon but you can also stream it here for free:

https://twitch.tv/primevideo

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Its your favorite time of the week.  Latests weeklies.  I'm a novice but looks like Dec looks great and the heights around Christmas look primed for snow.  

The weeklies have the PNA sustained around -1 for weeks.  Don't think I've seen it that low in the way out period.  Strong signal.

[Phil]

Yowza.

 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

People wanted the Pacific shut down.  They wanted a winter with a blocky pattern.   Now that we are getting it, they're complaining. 

At least there’s a chance for winter bliss given blocking. Zonal flow is an automatic game over.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100%. People say they want a blocky winter like 2013-14. They remember the 7-10 days of good stuff, I remember it was the most boring winter imaginable with literally nothing to track and nothing decent for weeks on end. 

There are some great uber blocky winters on record.  1916-17, 1936-37, 1948-49, 1978-79 (although the snow was lacking on that one), 1984-85, 1992-93, and others.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least there’s a chance for winter bliss given blocking. Zonal flow is an automatic game over.

People are getting impatient and it's only November.  Very blocky winters are a nearly constant theme of blocking reinventing itself over and over again.  It gives us a shot at having snow followed by a long period of clear and cold.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

At least there’s a chance for winter bliss given blocking. Zonal flow is an automatic game over.

I get what you're saying, but for my location zonal flow is perfect, as long as temps are not above normal. 

I'm just saying that a blocky winter will end up being dry and more often than not the block is set up right over us.

[gusky]

IDK how many people here are on Twitter, but if it dies here's a link to a weather Discord that Dakota Smith made that I might be helping out with 

https://discord.gg/vHRREstT 

[Anti Marine Layer]

43 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yowza.

 

Needs to head your way

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Came home to a Douglas Fir branch through the roof and into the bathroom. 
 

 

[Doinko]

Strongest gust at PDX since January 2021 with 48mph today

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I go outside without a coat if it's like 45F.

shorts and flip flops wx

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

shorts and flip flops wx

You can wear flip flops down to freezing for sure.

Currently 25F outside.

[bainbridgekid]

Sunday’s Buffalo Bills game was just moved to Detroit. I’m determined to experience one of these epic lake effect snowstorms one day.

[The Cats Meow]

It's been blocky all summer and fall.  No reason to think the pattern won't persist.

The goods are coming.  Eventually the block will hit the sweet spot and the cold will come crashing down.  Probably all the way to southern California.

It's going to be epic.  I just feel it.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

There are some great uber blocky winters on record.  1916-17, 1936-37, 1948-49, 1978-79 (although the snow was lacking on that one), 1984-85, 1992-93, and others.

anything in this century?

[Dave]

18 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Came home to a Douglas Fir branch through the roof and into the bathroom. 
 

 

That sucks. At least it's dry at the moment.