November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[umadbro]

Almost but not quite. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

There is no cold air to work with unfortunately 

It's still early. Looks like plenty to me just move it west. 

[umadbro]

Lots of cold rain. Nothing to get excited about. Unless you live above about 1000’. No reason to hype it more than it is.

[Gradient Keeper]

The GEFS improved dramatically and the past 2 EPS runs have improved as well. No reason to think the 00z tonight won't continue that. I guess we'll find out in about 1 hour.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

Fun times coming up.  Right now anywhere from cold to really cold looks pretty likely for the end of the month.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

There is no cold air to work with unfortunately 

The block just has to setup in the right place for a couple days and it will get there.

[snow_wizard]

Fraser outflow late in the run.  Amazing how these cold configurations just keep coming since the big change.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The block just has to setup in the right place for a couple days and it will get there.

At this point the 500mb stuff is the big deal.  Details always change.  Besides it gets cold on this run anyway.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[smerfylicious]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

There is no cold air to work with unfortunately 

Just needs to crack a cold one

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

That's pretty big...

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Deweydog]

Jan you airy.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[ShawniganLake]

This still has a “close but not quite” feel to it. 

[Snownerd3000]

13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

That's pretty big...

That wants to pinch off for our kona low

[Nov1985]

27 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Unfortunate. 

Ya, that low off BC is everything in terms of pulling the cold west. Quite a change in the past two runs. Here is the past 4 runs for that time frame. It might be Friday before the Monday night fcst settles.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

This still has a “close but not quite” feel to it. 

It always does, well some very rare exceptions, but unless there is solid model agreement showing arctic air moving south of the Canadian border within 72 hours, it always feels like that to me.

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

This still has a “close but not quite” feel to it. 

Yeah, to me looks pretty similar to what we just saw except at this point the last cold spell was looking absolutely frigid. But I'll hope for favorable trends.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS out very far yet?

6z NAM in 15 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, to me looks pretty similar to what we just saw except at this point the last cold spell was looking absolutely frigid. But I'll hope for favorable trends.

Looks pretty similar for sure.  Troughs digging in but are never really able to tap into the good stuff.  Lots of time for favourable trends still. 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

EPS out very far yet?

6z NAM in 15 minutes

Somewhat

[Nov1985]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It always does, well some very rare exceptions, but unless there is solid model agreement showing arctic air moving south of the Canadian border within 72 hours, it always feels like that to me.

Exactly. All the impactful events seem to have a lot of uncertainty. And the sure things seem to go bust. The best hints seem to reveal themselves 72 - 84 hours out. Even Feb 2019 had some doubts the night before those six snowfalls over 10 days...

[Kolk1604]

Out to hour 276 looks good to me

[Gradient Keeper]

Digggggg!!!!!!!!

[Kolk1604]

Yeah I'm a ways out there but I think next week is worth watching 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Patience is a virtue 

[Kolk1604]

Correction. Next week and the following week

[Slushy Inch]

Amazing EPS run. Pretty ideal trough location.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Correction. Next week and the following week

Better than last EPS

[Kolk1604]

This got my attention. Check out the surface anomalies 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

This got my attention. Check out the surface anomalies 

GEFS agrees this will be a lasting pattern.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

36 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Ya, that low off BC is everything in terms of pulling the cold west. Quite a change in the past two runs. Here is the past 4 runs for that time frame. It might be Friday before the Monday night fcst settles.

Thanks.  This is the kind of analysis that this forum needs. 

[Kolk1604]

I'd say that's a pretty solid signal 15 days out 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Tons of mountain snow on the way!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten

With the kickoff being returned from the endzone!

[HuskyMaestro]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten

And we're up 13-3 in the first quarter after the "just almost there but not quite" team scored a field goal. Great start, and still plenty of ball game for things to mesh out. 

[Nov1985]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Currently we got the ball on our 35-40 yard line with a first and ten