Jump to content

November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Nov1985 said:

Exactly. All the impactful events seem to have a lot of uncertainty. And the sure things seem to go bust. The best hints seem to reveal themselves 72 - 84 hours out. Even Feb 2019 had some doubts the night before those six snowfalls over 10 days...

I can't agree with this enough.  Often I laugh at the posts that foretell weeks of doom and "winter cancel", only to have "winter back on the table" in the next set of runs.  We almost never know what's gonna happen next week verbatim, especially so when any cold air is involved.  Best to just enjoy the ride and stay real.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I was up for this. Wow, talk about a BAD BEAT and arguably the biggest upset in WC history. 

Wow!

Can I ask a favor? Any chance we can keep the WC talk on these early matches to a minimum? I'm one of the few "'Muricans" 🌭 that loves soccer and will be trying to watch every match...also a weather 🌭 and love tracking stuff on this board.. :) TIA!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Looks like Maine or NH

There are a lot more deciduous trees in Maine or NH though. Sweden is mostly Tiaga forest and the northern parts definitely have a very tundra like feel with a lot of rocky soil and short shrubs.

  • Like 5

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The “winter cancel” followed by “this is going to be January 1950/1969 redux!” Is just like the cryptosphere. Bitcoin is going to zero!! Two days later, 100k by end of year!!!

 

in all seriousness, my expectations are super high this winter, all things considered.

  • Like 7
  • lol 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

8E2AD856-A7AE-4F90-A538-F670FD698B8F.jpeg

I'm surprised you're the only one who mentioned the 06z GFS. It's the first run I've seen so far that actually made me a bit excited. Looks like snow and sustained cold even if most of the snow is at the very end of the run.

  • Like 4

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Please forgive my novice brain (or stupidity) is that indicating it's going to be 5*F in Olympia? Am I reading that correctly or nah? 

since its a 264hr GFS surface temp map, the only thing its indicating is that it WONT be 5f in Olympia at this time

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

Please forgive my novice brain (or stupidity) is that indicating it's going to be 5*F in Olympia? Am I reading that correctly or nah? 

Below zero just south of Olympia.  FYI  Do not take GFS surface temps seriously in the long range.

Really nice improvement on the 6Z GEFS this morning.  😯 

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. 

 

I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. 

Thank you for asking that. I've wondered about that as well. Like they used to say in class. If one person has a question, odds are there are others too.

  • Like 4

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Everleigh said:

And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. 

 

I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. 

Please accept my apologies - that wasnt my intent and you are absolutely correct. Not every post needs a snarky/sarcastic response and I can do better. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. 

 

I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. 

I don't think it was meant to be rude or anything, just making fun of the GFS.

And some subzero temps in SW WA too!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Everleigh said:

And this is why I hardly ever ask a question here, cause I know I'll get something like this as an answer. Won't be making that mistake again, thank you. 

 

I understand it's far out. I understand that is very un-likely to actually happen. I wanted to know if I was reading the map correctly. I am not super experienced with all the different maps, and some I just don't know how to read. 

Yes. You were reading the map correctly.  Sometimes it is difficult to know if you are looking at surface maps vs upper level maps and actual temps vs anomalies.  Don’t be discouraged to ask questions. Most people on here have learned their weather knowledge from this very forum. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yes. You were reading the map correctly.  Sometimes it is difficult to know if you are looking at surface maps vs upper level maps and actual temps vs anomalies.  Don’t be discouraged to ask questions. Most people on here have learned their weather knowledge from this very forum. 

This forum has been really helpful. I had no idea how to read any maps less than a year ago

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Randyc321 said:

Didn't you used to be a positive, kind of excitable poster?  Your posts are fairly grim lately

Nah I like to be positive and I am feeling really positive about this winter actually. I just know at some point our really good run is gonna end too. I try to balance positivity with reality. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Thank you for asking that. I've wondered about that as well. Like they used to say in class. If one person has a question, odds are there are others too.

You were reading the map correctly. It’s just that the GFS tends to way overdo the cold air advection into the western lowlands when cold snaps are being modeled. It often calls for historically cold readings (that almost never materialize). It’s one of the reasons why we give it the “goofus” nickname. That said, it is also often the model that is the first to pick up on a coming cold spell. So it’s not totally useless; it just needs to be interpreted and not taken at face value.

It's one of the reasons why model output is called model guidance and not model forecasts.

  • Like 3
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...