November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SouthHillFrosty]

GFS shows snow for Vancouver in only 100 hours…..

[Doinko]

Unfortunately the block looks slightly weaker on this run after Day 6 but the first trough is colder which is great to see

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Slushy Inch]

Wow even the Canadian model looks awesome.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

GFS shows snow for Vancouver in only 100 hours…..

Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off.

 

[Cloud]

In today’s episode of plane vs wind. Jeebus, that was close to a wing strike.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Op showing poor run to run consistency after Day 5, but that isn't new.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off.

 

Time for another upgrade...

[SouthHillFrosty]

Cancelled 

[Doinko]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Cancelled 

It's on its way!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM through Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the 00z GFS. Day 8

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Time for another upgrade...

It’s infuriating how much worse they’ve gotten with snow. It used to be you knew unless they whiffed on a low placement that if a model showed significant sticking snow to sea level it would at least be cold enough for snow in the air and probably cold enough for snow to stick on the hill. Now they routinely spit out 4-8” of phantom snow that couldn’t physically happen.

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off.

 

That’s probably because it’s not exactly snowing in Vancouver/Abbotsford  at that time. 
 

 Closer view. 

[Gradient Keeper]

It's not even December and we're doing this! C'MON!!!!

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEM through Day 7

Rob, how many times has the GEM been right over the other main models, i. e. the gfs and euro, during these kind of episodes tho? 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got up to 52 here today with a respectable .73" of rain.

 

Update on my wife:  We had the doctor send off her biopsy for molecular/DNA analysis (so far I've seen a $900 charge hit our insurance for that one, not sure if more is to follow).  We went in for the pre-op appointment today, and the results from the analysis also showed up today.  Her cancer risk went from 40-ish% down to 3%!!

After a lot of discussion with the doctor, we decided to take a wait and monitor approach.  The type of cancer she is at risk of having is a slow mover, so routine ultrasounds should pick up any issues early enough, and there is a 25% chance the surgery could throw her thyroid function out of whack, plus the risks that go along with ANY surgery.

It's not 0% we really want to hear, but 3% is a way better than 40%....breathing a huge sigh of relief here tonight!

 

[Doinko]

Never mind my previous comment, the Aleutian block is back by day 9 with another cold trough over us

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

That’s probably because it’s not exactly snowing in Vancouver/Abbotsford  at that time. 
 

 Closer view. 

The Weatherbell map he posted showed it snowing in Vancouver at that same frame. For some reason their maps are much more comically generous with snowfall than other website’s.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

That’s probably because it’s not exactly snowing in Vancouver/Abbotsford  at that time. 
 

 Closer view. 

really making me re-think my weatherbell sub. The high res maps seem to be terribly done. 

[Kolk1604]

48 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Well lol I'm glad you approve. I appreciate it. One might think that I must drink a lot, or smoke some crazy stuff, but nope. I'm a natural, WHICH might actually be worse. Yeah.

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 3 minutes

Love your passion bro keep it up! 

[Doinko]

1044mb Arctic High north of the border with arctic air surging south

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Doinko]

 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Uncancel! 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, selkirks said:

*Finally* getting some light, very wet snow in south Spokane, after a full day of teasing.

yeah, flopped here, mostly rain,  not much accumulation.  North and West of town got it good

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

really making me re-think my weatherbell sub. The high res maps seem to be terribly done. 

Does pivotal have any long range models like weeklies? 

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Quite the N-S gradient 

[Nov1985]

 Past 4 runs 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The Weatherbell map he posted showed it snowing in Vancouver at that same frame. For some reason their maps are much more comically generous with snowfall than other website’s.

I see it and doesn’t make a lick of sense considering the temps output. Even by 3-h QPF. Pivotal actually have done a great job upgrading their res output for paid subs. 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Rob, how many times has the GEM been right over the other main models, i. e. the gfs and euro, during these kind of episodes tho? 

Good question. I know it did pretty good back in December 2008, but otherwise seems the GFS and EURO/EPS get the most focus for model accuracy at Day 5. I do think the GEM scores higher than the GFS Day 5-7 though.

6z GFS in 4 hours 58 minutes

[joelgombiner]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It's not even December and we're doing this! C'MON!!!!

It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Skagit Weather]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I love it when temperatures drop 21 degrees over my house from one run to the next!

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Good question. I know it did pretty good back in December 2008, but otherwise seems the GFS and EURO/EPS get the most focus for model accuracy at Day 5. I do think the GEM scores higher than the GFS Day 5-7 though.

6z GFS in 4 hours 58 minutes

Ryan Maue used to post time series charts of "model skill" charts on twitter, so you can see how well the models are doing over time. Model skill is some index of how well predictions match observations. Would be cool if someone could track model skill for this region in particular. 

[snow_wizard]

Much better CAA on this run for the first shot.  Really nice.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

This is looking serious now.

[Doinko]

Strong east wind and cold highs