November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. 

Ehhh...Seattle on average hits its minimum high and low temperatures before astronomical winter starts so might as well go by the meteorological definitions. No one thinks March 20th is still winter, but a lot of people think December 20th is.

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. 

I don't like that. The first day of winter needs to be the start of meteorological winter. 

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Does pivotal have any long range models like weeklies? 

You’d still want to go to WBx for these. Pivotal Plus is still limited to states zoom, this does include EPS and GEFS, 18z euro access and soundings, and NWS Blend. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Strong east wind and cold highs

 

 

Ya just beat me to it, and thanks outstanding. Yep! Intense low level blast!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ya just beat me to it, and thanks outstanding. Yep! Intense low level blast!

Those two ridges look primed to merge and drop another very cold trough on the NW in the clown range too

[TacomaWx]

Winter starts on December 1st on this forum. 

[TacomaWx]

Still too early for me to hop on the believe train but nice to see things are still looking good. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

31 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off.

 

It’s that famous terrain bleed from the nearby mountains.

[Nov1985]

In the 00Z this Wednesday evening low stalls/wobbles a bit around the Olympics before crossing too far north for snow for most of Puget Sound. Will be a track to watch if it stays in future models runs. If could be fun if it moves slow and stays west and south.

[snow_wizard]

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Ehhh...Seattle on average hits its minimum high and low temperatures before astronomical winter starts so might as well go by the meteorological definitions. No one thinks March 20th is still winter, but a lot of people think December 20th is.

The coldest day used to be January 18th.  The stuff in recent years has really skewed that.  With all of these cold Februarys recently the date will probably start to get later again.

[RentonHill]

GEFS down to -7.9 for the 28th now

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still too early for me to hop on the believe train but nice to see things are still looking good. 

The MJO wave has made me have more faith in this one happening.  7 almost always gets us cold.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Still too early for me to hop on the believe train but nice to see things are still looking good. 

I’m all in! We are set! 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEFS down to -7.9 for the 28th now

Just amazing how the models keep trending colder and longer with this.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

In the 00Z this Wednesday evening low stalls/wobbles a bit around the Olympics before crossing too far north for snow for most of Puget Sound. Will be a track to watch if it stays in future models runs. If could be fun if it moves slow and stays west and south.

Tons of chances with this.  Reloads always present two possibilities for snow as well as the chance with the initial cold shot.

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. 

Meteorological winter starts in 9 days

[Gradient Keeper]

Not bad. GEFS

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The MJO wave has made me have more faith in this one happening.  7 almost always gets us cold.

The overall pattern and cold air getting into BC seems pretty likely at this point…but still a lot of model volatility right now. Some of the models just don’t show the cold air punching in yet. 

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Ryan Maue used to post time series charts of "model skill" charts on twitter, so you can see how well the models are doing over time. Model skill is some index of how well predictions match observations. Would be cool if someone could track model skill for this region in particular. 

 Maue = barf

[High Desert Mat?]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is looking serious now.

You mean cereal. 

[RentonHill]

Lots of GEFS members just keep getting colder after the first shot

[snow_wizard]

We could be in for a long wild ride this winter.  The blocking is off the charts this season.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The overall pattern and cold air getting into BC seems pretty likely at this point…but still a lot of model volatility right now. Some of the models just don’t show the cold air punching in yet. 

They did the same thing last December also on holding back the cold until the event got relatively close.

[High Desert Mat?]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m all in! We are set! 

Did you say wet? 

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Winter starts on December 1st on this forum. 

Might actually 

 

9 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

In the 00Z this Wednesday evening low stalls/wobbles a bit around the Olympics before crossing too far north for snow for most of Puget Sound. Will be a track to watch if it stays in future models runs. If could be fun if it moves slow and stays west and south.

Nov 2010 vibes 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 Maue = barf

I remember there is something about the guy people don't like, but I can't remember what it is.

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

They did the same thing last December also on holding back the cold until the event got relatively close.

Yeah, not saying it won’t happen. The potential is there. I just still have January 2020 PTSD and keep my hopes in check. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS settles into a cold/dry offshore flow pattern later on.  Classic behavior in our coldest winters.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, not saying it won’t happen. The potential is there. I just still have January 2020 PTSD and keep my hopes in check. 

I get it.  On the other hand the models are really pouring it on now.  We are in the home stretch on the first shot.

GEM is totally on board with the first cold shot, but not the subsequent cold.

[snow_wizard]

Places that have snow on the ground could have some really cold temps if this run verifies.  Sadly we will have no idea who will do well with snow for days yet.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS settles into a cold/dry offshore flow pattern later on.  Classic behavior in our coldest winters.

Looks dry after hour 260ish. Would like to get at least 2-4 inches before we go into an extended cold pattern but we’ll see!!!

[RentonHill]

Man GEFS is good. It never overdoes the cold…right????

[snow_wizard]

Another thing to really like about the models right now is a big fat SE ridge has come into the picture.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Man GEFS is good. It never overdoes the cold…right????

Not nearly as often as the operational.

[selkirks]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like the GFS settles into a cold/dry offshore flow pattern later on.  Classic behavior in our coldest winters.

Meanwhile...

Cold is great but we need precip too!

[SouthHillFrosty]

We end with a rain/snow mix at hour 384

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS is cold. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We end with a rain/snow mix at hour 384

Are you sure?  Hour 384 is bone dry on what I'm looking at.