November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

850s fall of a cliff!

Weathermodles is stuck at hour 174... alright so it's not so great 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nope

I’m in the purpley grayish blueish color…I don’t know that that color is but it’s not green and that is all that matters! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2010!!!

I like that one! 

[Slushy Inch]

[Snownerd3000]

Looks great! Where do we sign to lock this in?

[Kolk1604]

MossyMan we gonna be bros the next couple weeks k? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Looks great! Where do we sign to lock this in?

No one move. It might disturb the atmosphere. 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

[bainbridgekid]

Block looks kinda funky, but the hammer sure drops at day 8. 516 thicknesses for PDX and 510 near BLI at hour 198.
 

 

[Kolk1604]

Actually here's a better view 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nope

Yup

[Snownerd3000]

I want to know where that next low is going to hit!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A lot of the maps that have been posted recently seem to be for wet, sloppy snowfalls that reach the lowlands primarily because of precip intensity dragging the snow level down.

[RentonHill]

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

A lot of the maps that have been posted recently seem to be for wet, sloppy snowfalls that reach the lowlands primarily because of precip intensity dragging the snow level down.

Sounds about right for early December. 

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

No one move. It might disturb the atmosphere. 

Yeah, what do they say about the weather weenie effect? Something like if someone in Seattle gets too excited about the possibility of snow it causes a chain reaction that can lead to all the cold air being shunted east of the Rockies?

[Nov1985]

10" Kuchera total, 7" snow depth IMBY. I'd take that for an early season marginal event. A bit chilly at times too. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

59 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I feel like this is going to be the best Euro run yet... and Rob will sleep through it

No he won't. lol. Colder run in the mid range. Incredible potential ahead Day 6+ and I wouldn't be surprised if the hammer drops on us the new few runs.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

10" Kuchera total, 7" snow depth IMBY. I'd take that for an early season marginal event. A bit chilly at times too. 

 

I don't use Kuchera unless Temps are in the 20s 

[Cascadia_Wx]

One thing I always notice about the 500mb pattern in these situations. If a ridge is just a little too far east for us it can sit undisturbed for days delivering cold and snow for the intermountain west and northern Rockies. Whenever it’s in the sweet spot for more of a direct hit in the western lowlands  there is pretty always a little ULL or something that spins up upstream and screws everything up for a region wide blast. I’m guessing it has to do with short waves gaining energy as they encounter maritime air and becoming overstrengthened? It always feels like threading such an impossible needle to get true arctic air region wide. It’s amazing it happened as often as it did 1990 and before.

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't use Kuchera unless Temps are in the 20s 

Well I'd take the 10:1 14" total too. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Often with a low that comes down from Vancouver Island, this will lead to lower snow totals in the area in red (the south puget sound). Will be interesting to watch going forward! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Sounds about right for early December. 

Historically early December can be a good period for us. We’re almost to the point where it’s really not much worse than any other part of winter.

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Often with a low that comes down from Vancouver Island, this will lead to lower snow totals in the area in red (the south puget sound). Will be interesting to watch going forward! 

The lows and highs and maps colors will change for sures. But at least we have something to watch in early December.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Incoming at hour 240!

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

One thing I always notice about the 500mb pattern in these situations. If a ridge is just a little too far east for us it can sit undisturbed for days delivering cold and snow for the intermountain west and northern Rockies. Whenever it’s in the sweet spot for more of a direct hit in the western lowlands  there is pretty always a little ULL or something that spins up upstream and screws everything up for a region wide blast. I’m guessing it has to do with short waves gaining energy as they encounter maritime air and becoming overstrengthened? It always feels like threading such an impossible needle to get true arctic air region wide. It’s amazing it happened as often as it did 1990 and before.

Then all summer we get these hysterically massive ridges that just lumber in and totally dominate the pattern for weeks. There was a time when cold air was able to throw its weight around like that too.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

The lows and highs and maps colors will change for sures. But at least we have something to watch in early December.

Oh it will Fosho! Wasn’t trying to be a weenie. Just interesting how much the low placement effects snow totals so drastically because of the Olympics 

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, what do they say about the weather weenie effect? Something like if someone in Seattle gets too excited about the possibility of snow it causes a chain reaction that can lead to all the cold air being shunted east of the Rockies?

Or... All at once, a million weenies cried out into the cold November night, releasing whirls and swirls of breath that blossomed into a towering column of air. Into the abyss rushed a backdoor cold blast, frigid Arctic air howling through the Cascade gaps. The haters gasped, silenced once and for all. 

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh it will Fosho! Wasn’t trying to be a weenie. Just interesting how much the low placement effects snow totals so drastically because of the Olympics 

The snow shadow and east wind drying (my area) should be banned from Western WA snow events. Just sayin' they aren't fair.  

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Often with a low that comes down from Vancouver Island, this will lead to lower snow totals in the area in red (the south puget sound). Will be interesting to watch going forward! 

Too early to worry about it much. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z runs are going to be potential jaw droppers tonight. MBG

18z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

The snow shadow and east wind drying (my area) should be banned from Western WA snow events. Just sayin' they aren't fair. 

Don’t move to Whatcom County or the BC Lower Mainland if you can’t stand dry outflow eating snow before it can reach the ground. It is a specialty of this area; the downside of having easier access to the outflow.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm starting to get that feeling. My confidence is increasing. .... Sounds like a Depends commercial.

But seriously. We're right on the edge of this turning into something special, big league stuff.

00z GFS in 8 hours 18 minutes
00z ECMWF in 10 hours 28 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

We really need to create a map that shows all the micro climates that western Washington has. Maybe we could take a topographical map and overlay that with data from the the NWS?????

Edited November 23, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I'm starting to get that feeling. My confidence is increasing. .... Sounds like a Depends commercial.

But seriously. We're right on the edge of this turning into something special, big league stuff.

00z GFS in 8 hours 18 minutes
00z ECMWF in 10 hours 28 minutes

Cold 850s on this run!

[Gradient Keeper]

[RentonHill]

EPS 850s at hr 138 look a tiny better

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS colder again in the mid range. The trend continues! Hell yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

We really need to create a map that shows all the micro climates that western Washington has. Maybe we could take a topographical map and overall that with data from the the NWS?????

It would be a pretty complex map that would have to be zoomable. Elevation would probably be the biggest single factor.