November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Change to snow for Seattle.

Right at freezing at 1pm. Just perfect. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5 850s

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8.5 850s

Artic high at 1049mb this run, insane pressure gradient.

[Gradient Keeper]

Great run, but it's the GFS lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

850s

[T-Town]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

What’s with the snow hole over tacoma?  Shadowed or too warm?

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Great run, but it's the GFS lol

Just noticed second trough comes in super late in GFS compared to other models.

[Slushy Inch]

Mid-twenties high temp. 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

What’s with the snow hole over tacoma?  Shadowed or too warm?

Pretty sure shadowed. This is NW flow being shown. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 COLD!

[Nov1985]

To low or not to low, that is the question. Such a significant difference between GFS and ECMWF at 200 hours. Yet I love that high pressure on both models over BC and Saskatchewan. 

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10 COLD!

Great GFS run. And the Euro was showing a modified arctic airmass over us with 850mb temps -10/11 with a perfect overrunning snowstorm for Portland!

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10 COLD!

Fridgid!

[Gradient Keeper]

We are going to see some crazy runs ahead and this may include the ECMWF too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Drunk Bastard 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

Congrats!  Just don't let your wife see your post.

[Gradient Keeper]

Drunk Bastard 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Terreboner]

I have learned not to freak out over each run especially when the pattern change has been shown for more than a few days.  

Pinpointing each low pressure position, wind speed and direction, and precip chances is futile.  We have all seen lows spin up out of nowhere when you get such a collision of airmasses, happens all the time.

I prefer to watch the old fashioned "Rob" WV loop once we are inside of 24 hours.  Also known as the Jack Capell method.

[Deweydog]

Snow 4 Vegas!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Snow 4 Vegas!

I believe this run shows Las Vegas getting more snow than the city of Seattle.   Makes sense.

[SouthHillFrosty]

19 minutes ago, T-Town said:

What’s with the snow hole over tacoma?  Shadowed or too warm?

For Seattle-Tacoma, our best snowstorms come when it lands at the mouth of the Columbia River.

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

For Seattle-Tacoma, our best snowstorms come when it lands at the mouth of the Columbia River.

Well let’s do that then. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

For Seattle-Tacoma, our best snowstorms come when it lands at the mouth of the Columbia River.

I remember a storm a few years back where a low dropped down from the gulf and wraps itself around the Olympics near the mouth of the columbia. Stayed up tracking it and  It was a great one. Believe it was in 2019. 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I remember a storm a few years back where a low dropped down from the gulf and wraps itself around the Olympics near the mouth of the columbia. Stayed up tracking it and  It was a great one. Believe it was in 2019. 

I recall this! 

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Well let’s do that then. 

This is the scenario you want…. KOMO used to have a graphic up for this but a lot has changed then to that archive.  
 

“The near-perfect snow scenario in this case is to have the system track over land for most of the way on its trip along the Coastline, then curve out over the water as it reaches the northern tip of Vancouver Island, and then come inland around the Central Washington Coast or Northern Oregon (more on why landfall there is important in a minute.)”

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I recall this! 

This was the one that a lot of people almost called a bust on because it was marginal late afternoon and even our friend Jim Cantore made a visit. It was early to late evening that it really ramped up. 

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is the scenario you want…. KOMO used to have a graphic up for this but a lot has changed then to that archive.  
 

“The near-perfect snow scenario in this case is to have the system track over land for most of the way on its trip along the Coastline, then curve out over the water as it reaches the northern tip of Vancouver Island, and then come inland around the Central Washington Coast or Northern Oregon (more on why landfall there is important in a minute.)”

Right there, but preferably 976 mb 

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This is the scenario you want…. KOMO used to have a graphic up for this but a lot has changed then to that archive.  
 

“The near-perfect snow scenario in this case is to have the system track over land for most of the way on its trip along the Coastline, then curve out over the water as it reaches the northern tip of Vancouver Island, and then come inland around the Central Washington Coast or Northern Oregon (more on why landfall there is important in a minute.)”

We’ve lived here since September 2017 and have had three significant snow events. That’s quite a run for being at 300’ and a mile from the water. 

[T-Town]

Dead calm here. 51 degrees. 

[Slushy Inch]

Not the best 18z GFS, but what do you expect from the druncle?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Not the best 18z GFS, but what do you expect from the druncle?

Looks pretty solidly cool and shows at least 1 sub-freezing high in the long range. Not too shabby.

[MikeInEverett]

22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I remember a storm a few years back where a low dropped down from the gulf and wraps itself around the Olympics near the mouth of the columbia. Stayed up tracking it and  It was a great one. Believe it was in 2019. 

Ah yes February 2019, December 2008’s little brother at least up here in Snohomish County it was

[Rubus Leucodermis]

57 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It could very well be this first trough is only chilly, and the main event follows

2008 was sorta like that in PDX. Initial snowfall didn't amount to a whole lot and then things got melty for a few days. Then came the main event.

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We’ve lived here since September 2017 and have had three significant snow events. That’s quite a run for being at 300’ and a mile from the water. 

We moved to this house summer of 2012 and I heard stories of 18" snows the winter prior. Hardly a wet inch or two for 5 years, maybe 2017 had something. Then ever since Feb 2019 I've shoveled 10" to 20" of snow every year... Now I have 2 snow shovels and an 80 volt electric snow shovel... 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

34 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Snow 4 Vegas!

Probably for nearby Mt. Charleston, which is not in the least unusual.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

2008 was sorta like that in PDX. Initial snowfall didn't amount to a whole lot and then things got melty for a few days. Then came the main event.

I thought some places had 3-4" with the Arctic front on the 14th? Mostly in the west metro from PNS reports from then it seems like.

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks pretty solidly cool and shows at least 1 sub-freezing high in the long range. Not too shabby.

Not too bad, just not as good as Euro.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Not too bad, just not as good as Euro.

You're gonna do great.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought some places had 3-4" with the Arctic front on the 14th? Mostly in the west metro from PNS reports from then it seems like.

Maybe some places, more like 2" in the city proper, and like I said it then went above freezing and mostly all melted.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought some places had 3-4" with the Arctic front on the 14th? Mostly in the west metro from PNS reports from then it seems like.

Yeah, I did pretty good that first day in Tigard with the low dropping down the coast. 3-4 inches sounds right. Great early winter break for a senior in high school! 

Edited November 23, 2022 by FroYoBro