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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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37 minutes ago, Cloud said:

This was the one that a lot of people almost called a bust on because it was marginal late afternoon and even our friend Jim Cantore made a visit. It was early to late evening that it really ramped up. 

And Tim was embarrassed that he thought he called it wrong with his DT work buddies.  It's one of my first memories of this forum.

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I kind of like this.  From Pendleton AFD.  See this High Desert Mat and Dareduck?

More active weather begins in earnest by Sunday morning with a trough advertised by ensemble and deterministic guidance to slide down British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. The track of this system is somewhat continental with little moisture in any ensemble members. Thus, not expecting this system to produce heavy precipitation amounts. Delving into ensemble clusters reveals that all cluster solutions depict some flavor of a trough or cut-off low diving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Monday, though differences in amplitude and timing are apparent with no solution strongly favored. Have low-elevation snow in the forecast as the influx of colder air with northerly flow aloft favors this general outcome. The ECMWF EFI is highlighting central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands as an area to watch on Monday for climatologically unusual snowfall, though current NBM QPF is not enough to support advisory-level snow.

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1 hour ago, Cloud said:

I remember a storm a few years back where a low dropped down from the gulf and wraps itself around the Olympics near the mouth of the columbia. Stayed up tracking it and  It was a great one. Believe it was in 2019. 

8 Feb 2019? I remember that one. My place on Bainbridge Island got dry slotted for hours and I was in fine weenie mode about it. Went to bed dejected and of course it then proceeded to absolutely dump all night and when I got up at the crack of dawn there was over 8" on the ground.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Only about $2500 in exterminator’s fees and other costs associated with dealing with the bedbugs you will bring inside with it.

That table looks like something that would bring about a long/strong period of +EPO.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34950-x

Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene

Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 7175 (2022) Cite this article

Abstract

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.

Who's ready for some climate whiplash? 

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Hmmm...

20221123_snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.thumb.png.cdcb7f302166fbbba7541b5e4a907f98.png

  • Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4
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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Looks like things keep trending in the right direction. With each trend and is getting closer to the event I get a little more excited by the day. There’s always a chance of a rug pull but this time that chance seems pretty low with how much is aligned for us like the Phase 7 MJO, the -PNA, -EPO, and -NAO.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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55/44 today. Today is only our 2nd positive departure this whole month. Running -3.6 MTD which could end up being the coldest November I’ve recorded 2005-Present. We’re -1.5 from the current coldest November here in 2010. If I had to guess this is probably the coldest November since 2000 here.

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Alright…I am going to apologize right now, I am putting the plow on my mower tomorrow while it’s warm and dry, every single time I have done that the last few years the models immediately take a temporary dump. It’s a given but it will be okay, they will bounce back pretty quickly! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

If this goes anything like the ‘’way-too-far-in-the-future’’ risk of heavy precipitation memo they issued last time, we can put a fork in it now.

To be fair, a 20% probability of something happening isn't that likely.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34950-x

Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene

Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 7175 (2022) Cite this article

Abstract

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.

Who's ready for some climate whiplash? 

I'm on board!  Maybe this more well defined season thing is going to be the new normal for us.

As an interesting aside I did some research on the last ice age and found some fascinating stuff I had never known before.  Incredibly they have found evidence that the Western WA Lowlands actually had sage brush and subalpine fir trees before the glaciation set in.  It is truly amazing what dramatic changes have happened in our climate in the relatively recent (geologically speaking) past.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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