Christensen87 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 That 12z CFS though… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Doing forum work tonight. I'll time the maintenance for when the inevitable raccoon rug run shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 37 minutes ago, Cloud said: This was the one that a lot of people almost called a bust on because it was marginal late afternoon and even our friend Jim Cantore made a visit. It was early to late evening that it really ramped up. And Tim was embarrassed that he thought he called it wrong with his DT work buddies. It's one of my first memories of this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, Christensen87 said: That 12z CFS though… Wanna post it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Free table anyone? Not sure about the shipping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 18z GEFS looks cold. Prolonged backdoor cold too for at least a week. The Gorge and Columbia Basin going into the deep freezer! 00z NAM in 2 hours 42 minutes 00z GFS in 3 hours 42 minutes 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 18z GEFS surface temps(through Day 12)! 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 I kind of like this. From Pendleton AFD. See this High Desert Mat and Dareduck? More active weather begins in earnest by Sunday morning with a trough advertised by ensemble and deterministic guidance to slide down British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. The track of this system is somewhat continental with little moisture in any ensemble members. Thus, not expecting this system to produce heavy precipitation amounts. Delving into ensemble clusters reveals that all cluster solutions depict some flavor of a trough or cut-off low diving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Monday, though differences in amplitude and timing are apparent with no solution strongly favored. Have low-elevation snow in the forecast as the influx of colder air with northerly flow aloft favors this general outcome. The ECMWF EFI is highlighting central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands as an area to watch on Monday for climatologically unusual snowfall, though current NBM QPF is not enough to support advisory-level snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Cloud said: I remember a storm a few years back where a low dropped down from the gulf and wraps itself around the Olympics near the mouth of the columbia. Stayed up tracking it and It was a great one. Believe it was in 2019. 8 Feb 2019? I remember that one. My place on Bainbridge Island got dry slotted for hours and I was in fine weenie mode about it. Went to bed dejected and of course it then proceeded to absolutely dump all night and when I got up at the crack of dawn there was over 8" on the ground. 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 44 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Free table anyone? Not sure about the shipping. How much? 1 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Just now, Deweydog said: How much? Only about $2500 in exterminator’s fees and other costs associated with dealing with the bedbugs you will bring inside with it. 1 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Only about $2500 in exterminator’s fees and other costs associated with dealing with the bedbugs you will bring inside with it. That table looks like something that would bring about a long/strong period of +EPO. 3 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: How much? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 SUNSET ALERT 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Ensembles are getting worse for the GFS??? Interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said: It could very well be this first trough is only chilly, and the main event follows 2008 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Deweydog Posted November 24, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Have you driven a Ford lately? Plenty of AWD models available in a wide variety of trim levels. PERFECT for the upcoming urban impassibility coming up over the next several weeks. 18 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post T-Town Posted November 24, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Good one… 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Wanna post it? It keeps the chill potential for much of December. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Free table anyone? Not sure about the shipping. Glad you put the free sign on the item. I put the free sign on a cardboard box beside the item and they to the box 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: It keeps the chill potential for much of December. The Pacific is shut down!!!!!!!!! Bikini weather in Hawaii and bouts of shorts and T-shirt weather on the Atlantic coast. Love it!!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Thanks all for posting the maps so I can stay up to date. Enjoying the potential Down here in Tigard raking leaves at my daughters. So many leaves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Terreboner said: The Pacific is shut down!!!!!!!!! Bikini weather in Hawaii and bouts of shorts and T-shirt weather on the Atlantic coast. Love it!!!! Judah has a machine learning model that says otherwise. 1 7 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 5 hours ago, RentonHillTC said: PDX has some bangers in there Haven't had a 5"+ event since 2017, hoping that streak ends soon! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34950-x Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene Julia Homann, Jessica L. Oster, Cameron B. de Wet, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach & Thorsten Hoffmann Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 7175 (2022) Cite this article 9 Altmetric Metricsdetails Abstract Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene. Who's ready for some climate whiplash? Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Doinko said: Haven't had a 5"+ event since 2017, hoping that streak ends soon! they make a pill for that 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 34 minutes ago, Deweydog said: SUNSET ALERT Hope you brought a flashlight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Hmmm... Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4 3 4 2 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Looks like things keep trending in the right direction. With each trend and is getting closer to the event I get a little more excited by the day. There’s always a chance of a rug pull but this time that chance seems pretty low with how much is aligned for us like the Phase 7 MJO, the -PNA, -EPO, and -NAO. 2 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 850s are a little colder on the 18z EPS. 6 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Cold Snap said: 850s are a little colder on the 18z EPS. Let's get that cold in place and get a series of suppressed lows tracking south of the region. That's what I want. B.C. sliders are nice but they are limited. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 55/44 today. Today is only our 2nd positive departure this whole month. Running -3.6 MTD which could end up being the coldest November I’ve recorded 2005-Present. We’re -1.5 from the current coldest November here in 2010. If I had to guess this is probably the coldest November since 2000 here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Hmmm... Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4 Looks like Shawniganlake and rubus aren’t gonna be getting any snow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Hmmm... Slight risk of heavy snow for some low elevations of the Pacific Northwest, Thu-Sun, Dec 1-4 If this goes anything like the ‘’way-too-far-in-the-future’’ risk of heavy precipitation memo they issued last time, we can put a fork in it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: 850s are a little colder on the 18z EPS. Wow. More than a little! Nice! Thanks for posting the 18z EPS! HERE WE GO! 00z GFS in 1 hour 31 minutes 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Alright…I am going to apologize right now, I am putting the plow on my mower tomorrow while it’s warm and dry, every single time I have done that the last few years the models immediately take a temporary dump. It’s a given but it will be okay, they will bounce back pretty quickly! 1 2 1 1 1 1 5 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: If this goes anything like the ‘’way-too-far-in-the-future’’ risk of heavy precipitation memo they issued last time, we can put a fork in it now. To be fair, a 20% probability of something happening isn't that likely. 2 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: To be fair, a 20% probability of something happening isn't that likely. It's experimental. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 hour ago, joelgombiner said: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-34950-x Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene Julia Homann, Jessica L. Oster, Cameron B. de Wet, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach & Thorsten Hoffmann Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 7175 (2022) Cite this article 9 Altmetric Metricsdetails Abstract Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene. Who's ready for some climate whiplash? I'm on board! Maybe this more well defined season thing is going to be the new normal for us. As an interesting aside I did some research on the last ice age and found some fascinating stuff I had never known before. Incredibly they have found evidence that the Western WA Lowlands actually had sage brush and subalpine fir trees before the glaciation set in. It is truly amazing what dramatic changes have happened in our climate in the relatively recent (geologically speaking) past. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Lot of local seattle meteorologists seem pretty hyped about the potential coming up. NWS has been talking about it too. Still no word from the forum favorite cliff mass. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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