November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

The million dollar question is will we be able to get the January monkey off our backs this winter.  This season has displayed the signs that a consistently cold / very blocky winter has a well above average chance of happening.  Furthermore, we do seem to have an LRC going now which would favor another round of favorable blocking around New Years.  That having been said the January curse has been very real for a long time now.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lot of local seattle meteorologists seem pretty hyped about the potential coming up. NWS has been talking about it too. Still no word from the forum favorite cliff mass. 

I'm so bummed about that.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

55/44 today. Today is only our 2nd positive departure this whole month. Running -3.6 MTD which could end up being the coldest November I’ve recorded 2005-Present. We’re -1.5 from the current coldest November here in 2010. If I had to guess this is probably the coldest November since 2000 here.

I think I'm going to come in around 52/37 or so before midnight arrives.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The million dollar question is will we be able to get the January monkey off our backs this winter.  This season has displayed the signs that a consistently cold / very blocky winter has a well above average chance of happening.  Furthermore, we do seem to have an LRC going now which would favor another round of favorable blocking around New Years.  That having been said the January curse has been very real for a long time now.

We broke the curse down here in 2017 in a big way. Before that? 2004?

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

We broke the curse down here in 2017 in a big way. Before that? 2004?

2017 was pretty legit.  Even 2004 torched hard after the cold.  During the 2007 through 2017 stretch January did try to make a comeback, but crashed again afterward.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

2017 was pretty legit.  Even 2004 torched hard after the cold.  During the 2007 through 2017 stretch January did try to make a comeback, but crashed again afterward.

Are you talking about just one event, or a decidedly colder month overall?

[smerfylicious]

5:35pm a healthy boy emerges. Thank you everyone for the well wishes! 

I'll have to catch up on the rug pull later

[Snownerd3000]

42 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

rug pull

 

[High Desert Mat?]

2 hours ago, Terreboner said:

I kind of like this.  From Pendleton AFD.  See this High Desert Mat and Dareduck?

More active weather begins in earnest by Sunday morning with a trough advertised by ensemble and deterministic guidance to slide down British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. The track of this system is somewhat continental with little moisture in any ensemble members. Thus, not expecting this system to produce heavy precipitation amounts. Delving into ensemble clusters reveals that all cluster solutions depict some flavor of a trough or cut-off low diving into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and Monday, though differences in amplitude and timing are apparent with no solution strongly favored. Have low-elevation snow in the forecast as the influx of colder air with northerly flow aloft favors this general outcome. The ECMWF EFI is highlighting central Oregon and the Ochoco-John Day Highlands as an area to watch on Monday for climatologically unusual snowfall, though current NBM QPF is not enough to support advisory-level snow.

I saw it. Could be good but a little far out still. We’ll see how the 500 pans out and the low placement. 

[Snownerd3000]

33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Alright…I am going to apologize right now, I am putting the plow on my mower tomorrow while it’s warm and dry, every single time I have done that the last few years the models immediately take a temporary dump. It’s a given but it will be okay, they will bounce back pretty quickly! 

Just keep this to yourself next time 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

5:35pm a healthy boy emerges. Thank you everyone for the well wishes! 

I'll have to catch up on the rug pull later

The 23rd is a good date as well, congrats!!! 

[MossMan]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Just keep this to yourself next time 

I just want everyone to know why the models will be taking a sudden downturn tomorrow. It will work out though…It has for the last 3 years anyway!

[Kolk1604]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2017 was pretty legit.  Even 2004 torched hard after the cold.  During the 2007 through 2017 stretch January did try to make a comeback, but crashed again afterward.

2004 I'll never forget. Talk about an abrupt end to Winter... at the beginning of January 

[FroYoBro]

Thick fog has already formed again right after sunset. Today was by far the foggiest day of fall with it sticking around until noon. 
 

Foggy days always have a cool mysterious feel to them. 

[High Desert Mat?]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

2004 I'll never forget. Talk about an abrupt end to Winter... at the beginning of January 

I get that it does after the 8th or so but that time from Halloween through January 8th was on another level in NE Portland. Those winds never stopped out of the gorge but a few times and there was a lot of screaming east winds with snow sleet and zr. I love those combos that the gorge produces. Pretty historic really. 

[GHweatherChris]

May as well let Fred get on with the site maintenance....

 

[Terreboner]

7 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I get that it does after the 8th or so but that time from Halloween through January 8th was on another level in NE Portland. Those winds never stopped out of the gorge but a few times and there was a lot of screaming east winds with snow sleet and zr. I love those combos that the gorge produces. Pretty historic really. 

Epic PSCZ after epic PSCZ that year in Nov/Dec.  Soon as the zone would sag south it would come back north again.  I believe I had over 20 inches of snow in a 2 day stretch that winter.  Not bad for 230' ASL.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

May as well let Fred get on with the site maintenance....

 

[Cold Snap]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2017 was pretty legit.  Even 2004 torched hard after the cold.  During the 2007 through 2017 stretch January did try to make a comeback, but crashed again afterward.

Jan 2012 was pretty decent for the Seattle area. 6.8” in one day during that at SEA.

[Brennan]

Is the weather pattern for early next week a good snow pattern for Leavenworth?

[Iceresistance]

The PNA appears to be very Negative to end November and start December. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Brennan said:

Is the weather pattern for early next week a good snow pattern for Leavenworth?

I would think there will need to be some NNE component outside of a real strong onshore flow.  Kind of the same as here. We will need some form of north or northeasterly component to get the real goods.  I do know strong cold fronts will give Leavenworth the goods, but doubt that happens in this pattern.  At least initially.

[Gradient Keeper]

Here we go!

[Iceresistance]

I forgot to mention that Early December may feature a -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-PNA regiment, this is going to be fun up there. 

[Hawksfan2008]

So stoked for the 00Z runs! Been pretty sick the last couple of days and I swear one of the best pick me ups is a good run  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[snow_wizard]

58 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

2004 I'll never forget. Talk about an abrupt end to Winter... at the beginning of January 

That season was awesome from October through early January.  After that a turd sandwich.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I forgot to mention that Early December may feature a -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-PNA regiment, this is going to be fun up there. 

Yup.  Cold for pretty much the entire northern part of the US.  When they are all minus it forces a broad trough to spread out which skirts the northern states.

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That season was awesome from October through early January.  After that a turd sandwich.

I would take that over only Jan-March winters.  Something magical about snow and cold during the holidays.

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Lot of local seattle meteorologists seem pretty hyped about the potential coming up. NWS has been talking about it too. Still no word from the forum favorite cliff mass. 

I'm so sad that Scott Sistek doesn't still work for Komo. I know he's around and posts on Twitter (and works on national weather for Fox), but his local weather blog (and forecasts) were the best in the area. Even yesterday I was still reading his year in review summaries from 2008 and 2009.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Is the weather pattern for early next week a good snow pattern for Leavenworth?

I thought you moved to Georgia or the Carolina’s or something? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Ridge is amplifying sooner this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

No real changes with the first trough.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[RentonHill]

More Kold Ehr

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5

[SouthHillFrosty]