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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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34 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I would think there will need to be some NNE component outside of a real strong onshore flow.  Kind of the same as here. We will need some form of north or northeasterly component to get the real goods.  I do know strong cold fronts will give Leavenworth the goods, but doubt that happens in this pattern.  At least initially.

Our normal temps in late November and early December are generally cold enough for snow, though just barely (until you get to mid December).  

We don't want storms coming in from the NW, we get heavily shadowed.  We would want the low to come inland to the south after having spent some time over the ocean and then we get good upslope enhancement.  Certainly it would be cold enough for snow, at least for the 2nd trough.  

We had 3.5 inches of snow Tuesday, and we have had snow on the ground since the 6th.  That is pretty early for snow to last this long.

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2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

image.thumb.png.9e6bc07d1cbf2eae7ac028941f5b967b.png

Nice to see the source getting colder 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Flash freeze for the Seattle area on this run.  Very sharp Arctic front.  Looks really good for lowland snow.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

Tim will be here next week with the bare and wet road cams, warming 850mb temp maps and the egregiously dry precip anomaly maps. 

"Not snowing in Issaquah yet"

"My wife didnt see any frost on her run down to the valley"

"I might get the lawnmower out of my third shed because the garden is still producing etc etc"

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A blast from the north that makes it all the way to Portland.  Impressive!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Our normal temps in late November and early December are generally cold enough for snow, though just barely (until you get to mid December).  

We don't want storms coming in from the NW, we get heavily shadowed.  We would want the low to come inland to the south after having spent some time over the ocean and then we get good upslope enhancement.  Certainly it would be cold enough for snow, at least for the 2nd trough.  

We had 3.5 inches of snow Tuesday, and we have had snow on the ground since the 6th.  That is pretty early for snow to last this long.

Pretty much what I said.  I've been in Leavenworth when a strong zonal cold front came through and it rained for 4 hours then changed over and snowed for a good 6 hours on the backside.  Upslope, meaning NE/E winds.  

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

A blast from the north that makes it all the way to Portland.  Impressive!

The GEM and Euro also show a blast for us which is great. With that last trough it was mostly the GFS going crazy but this one looks great for us so far

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A reload is looking pretty possible as far as the run has gone now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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One thing to remember is blasts from the north are much more likely to produce snow for Seattle than backdoor ones.  Mins temps are usually a lot colder too, because we don't have east winds to deal with.

Right now this thing looks top tier for this early in the season.  That is other than events like 1955 and 1985.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Terreboner said:

Pretty much what I said.  I've been in Leavenworth when a strong zonal cold front came through and it rained for 4 hours then changed over and snowed for a good 6 hours on the backside.  Upslope, meaning NE/E winds.  

And that usually comes with a low to the south.  The E/NE winds help with precip rates and helps with cold air damming.  I don't get as excited by arctic blasts as most do because they are sometimes too dry for significant snow. Give me normal temps and average to above average precip and I get a lot of snow.  

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GEM and gfs are a bit different but great scenarios either way. The first shot of cold air coming early next week on the Euro,Gfs and Cmc is showing 850mb temps in the -8C to -10C range. Pretty decent warning shot if the models are to be believed past early next week showing an even colder shot potentially. 

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