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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s coming in a little higher this run… 12z had better placement so far. But it’s a dice roll this far out

C6ECA76B-F070-49EE-AD9C-6C71D1B15B07.jpeg

That won't even come in.  It will get shunted westward IMO.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Lock it in!

1.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

It's still way early obviously but one thing I'm liking is that there really is no indicators of the pattern breaking down with a +EPO response and undercutting scenario in that December 3-7 timeframe. 

So even if the block and ensuing initial big Arctic high around the 1st sets up a little too far east for us, it would definitely appear based on the ensemble and OP support so far that we would still have an excellent chance at staying in cold offshore flow for an extended period afterwards. Precip opportunities could be tricky but we'll worry about that when we get there.

This is looking pretty special right now.  We have blocking in spades coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TOUCHDOWN!!

1.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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So let's see the 2nd arctic trough doesn't show up until Day 7-8? We have a long ways to go. Need 3 more days of continued cold runs and good agreement with first EPS, GEFS secondary. I will say seeing though the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF Op rather similar handling of it Day 5.5 to 6.5 is promising. Onto 12z runs tomorrow Thanksgiving!

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

So let's see the 2nd arctic trough doesn't show up until Day 7-8? We have a long ways to go. Need 3 more days of continued cold runs and good agreement with first EPS, GEFS secondary. I will say seeing though the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF Op rather similar handling of it Day 5.5 to 6.5 is promising. Onto 12z runs tomorrow Thanksgiving!

I'm so pumped and it looks so promising! Just need an Arctic front to sit on us from 12/1 to 12/3 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

So let's see the 2nd arctic trough doesn't show up until Day 7-8? We have a long ways to go. Need 3 more days of continued cold runs and good agreement with first EPS, GEFS secondary. I will say seeing though the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF Op rather similar handling of it Day 5.5 to 6.5 is promising. Onto 12z runs tomorrow Thanksgiving!

Don't worry Rob. I have a feeling plenty of folks will be up for the night shift.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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If this blocky regime holds up this could be the coldest winter a very long time.  The signs have been there for a while.  As I said earlier it's up to January.  Is it ready to give up the curse?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Is there any concern for the 850s warming at the end? 

Surface Temps still cold though. Looks like a solid 3 days below freezing 

index (25).png

index (24).png

That's fine.  Nothing to dislodge the low level cold at that point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

Doesn't it seem like cold events are often preceded by over-performing wind events? Sat night and Tue evening could be breezy.

 

sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_state_wa (5).png

sfcgustmax_006h_mph.us_state_wa (4).png

Sometimes that happens.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SE ridge is becoming more of a factor on the EPS than earlier runs.  Nothing but good news right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Is there any concern for the 850s warming at the end? 

Surface Temps still cold though. Looks like a solid 3 days below freezing 

index (25).png

index (24).png

The 00Z has less strong high pressure in southern BC area, and that crazy low contributing to the warmup. It looks to be short lived and the track and strength of crazy low will no doubt continue to change in future runs. Past two runs

dc2cd3b7-dd2e-4519-b602-e000529902ac.gif

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8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
🦃 Happy Thanksgiving 🍗
 
I just wanted to wish you all a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday. I'm glad the weather will be cooperating for all of your travel destinations. This year it's very bittersweet since my brother suddenly passed this past June. It's just my Mother and I. That's my entire family now. It will be very scaled back. It gives me clearer perspective and appreciation for her more than ever and I'll need that. It's going to be rough. I also wanted to mention as tacky as it might sound? but I am thankful for this weather forum, all of the model riding, discussions, differing personalities, and humor. Definitely humor. 
 
Make the best of this holiday, and make new, lasting memories.

Now let's get some Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

Happy Thanksgiving to you too Rob and everyone else!

So sorry for your loss brother. Life is certainly way too short, so enjoy what you can. 

I'm fortunate enough to add another family member this year (got married) after losing my mom a little more than a year ago. Certainly helped a lot. 

Anyways, be safe and enjoy!

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Does anyone know what the minimum 850mb temps were last December with the blast or where I could find archives of that data online?

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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