Snownerd3000 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 The low at the end of the run looks to be trending out to grab some coffee in Kona 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BLI snowman Posted November 24, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 It's still way early obviously but one thing I'm liking is that there really is no indicators of the pattern breaking down with a +EPO response and undercutting scenario in that December 3-7 timeframe. So even if the block and ensuing initial big Arctic high around the 1st sets up a little too far east for us, it would definitely appear based on the ensemble and OP support so far that we would still have an excellent chance at staying in cold offshore flow for an extended period afterwards. Precip opportunities could be tricky but we'll worry about that when we get there. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It’s coming in a little higher this run… 12z had better placement so far. But it’s a dice roll this far out That won't even come in. It will get shunted westward IMO. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Lock it in! 3 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: It's still way early obviously but one thing I'm liking is that there really is no indicators of the pattern breaking down with a +EPO response and undercutting scenario in that December 3-7 timeframe. So even if the block and ensuing initial big Arctic high around the 1st sets up a little too far east for us, it would definitely appear based on the ensemble and OP support so far that we would still have an excellent chance at staying in cold offshore flow for an extended period afterwards. Precip opportunities could be tricky but we'll worry about that when we get there. This is looking pretty special right now. We have blocking in spades coming up. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall/Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Meanwhile....already down to 37 tonight. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 TOUCHDOWN!! 6 3 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 So let's see the 2nd arctic trough doesn't show up until Day 7-8? We have a long ways to go. Need 3 more days of continued cold runs and good agreement with first EPS, GEFS secondary. I will say seeing though the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF Op rather similar handling of it Day 5.5 to 6.5 is promising. Onto 12z runs tomorrow Thanksgiving! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: So let's see the 2nd arctic trough doesn't show up until Day 7-8? We have a long ways to go. Need 3 more days of continued cold runs and good agreement with first EPS, GEFS secondary. I will say seeing though the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF Op rather similar handling of it Day 5.5 to 6.5 is promising. Onto 12z runs tomorrow Thanksgiving! I'm so pumped and it looks so promising! Just need an Arctic front to sit on us from 12/1 to 12/3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: TOUCHDOWN!! 4 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: So let's see the 2nd arctic trough doesn't show up until Day 7-8? We have a long ways to go. Need 3 more days of continued cold runs and good agreement with first EPS, GEFS secondary. I will say seeing though the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF Op rather similar handling of it Day 5.5 to 6.5 is promising. Onto 12z runs tomorrow Thanksgiving! Don't worry Rob. I have a feeling plenty of folks will be up for the night shift. 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: That won't even come in. It will get shunted westward IMO. Ya a couple days ago ECMWF had this low like out of the picture far west. Looks like it's going back there. Past 3 runs... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/broncos-russell-wilson-bathrooms-house-td-passes-losing-come-on 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Is there any concern for the 850s warming at the end? Surface Temps still cold though. Looks like a solid 3 days below freezing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 If this blocky regime holds up this could be the coldest winter a very long time. The signs have been there for a while. As I said earlier it's up to January. Is it ready to give up the curse? 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 I’d like an order of whatever the GEM control is drinking tonight. 1 1 4 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Is there any concern for the 850s warming at the end? Surface Temps still cold though. Looks like a solid 3 days below freezing That's fine. Nothing to dislodge the low level cold at that point. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Don't worry Rob. I have a feeling plenty of folks will be up for the night shift. I'm exhausted, so that's a very good thing. I will check it out when I feed my cat around 5:30 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Doesn't it seem like cold events are often preceded by over-performing wind events? Sat night and Tue evening could be breezy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 EPS high temps on Thursday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 EPS is colder on both shots than the 12z. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Nov1985 said: Doesn't it seem like cold events are often preceded by over-performing wind events? Sat night and Tue evening could be breezy. Sometimes that happens. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 EPS also much better for snow then the OP 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 COLD EPS trend 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Foggy out. 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: EPS also much better for snow then the OP EPS indicates there may be more snow events later in the week as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 SE ridge is becoming more of a factor on the EPS than earlier runs. Nothing but good news right now. 5 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: EPS also much better for snow then the OP 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Foggy out. Gusty east winds here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Looks like we're gonna be riding the night shift for the foreseeable future. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Happy Thanksgiving I just wanted to wish you all a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday. I'm glad the weather will be cooperating for all of your travel destinations. This year it's very bittersweet since my brother suddenly passed this past June. It's just my Mother and I. That's my entire family now. It will be very scaled back. It gives me clearer perspective and appreciation for her more than ever and I'll need that. It's going to be rough. I also wanted to mention as tacky as it might sound? but I am thankful for this weather forum, all of the model riding, discussions, differing personalities, and humor. Definitely humor. Make the best of this holiday, and make new, lasting memories. Now let's get some Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! 29 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Is there any concern for the 850s warming at the end? Surface Temps still cold though. Looks like a solid 3 days below freezing The 00Z has less strong high pressure in southern BC area, and that crazy low contributing to the warmup. It looks to be short lived and the track and strength of crazy low will no doubt continue to change in future runs. Past two runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SimplySmoothWX Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Foggy out. Definitely. I went on a late-night walk and couldn't see down the block! The foggiest areas tomorrow will struggle to hit 50 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 GEFS has a 34 inch snowfall member for SeaTac 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 3 1 6 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Happy Thanksgiving I just wanted to wish you all a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday. I'm glad the weather will be cooperating for all of your travel destinations. This year it's very bittersweet since my brother suddenly passed this past June. It's just my Mother and I. That's my entire family now. It will be very scaled back. It gives me clearer perspective and appreciation for her more than ever and I'll need that. It's going to be rough. I also wanted to mention as tacky as it might sound? but I am thankful for this weather forum, all of the model riding, discussions, differing personalities, and humor. Definitely humor. Make the best of this holiday, and make new, lasting memories. Now let's get some Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! Happy Thanksgiving to you too Rob and everyone else! So sorry for your loss brother. Life is certainly way too short, so enjoy what you can. I'm fortunate enough to add another family member this year (got married) after losing my mom a little more than a year ago. Certainly helped a lot. Anyways, be safe and enjoy! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Does anyone know what the minimum 850mb temps were last December with the blast or where I could find archives of that data online? Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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