November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Slushy Inch]

Euro more like GEM for second system. Looks like less warm up than GFS

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Mind posting the end of the GEM you were talking about Jim? Thanks 

Here you go.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m thinking it’s likely there would be an arctic front passing from north to south that the models aren’t seeing at this point. 

Yup.  By definition that is a sliding C-Zone with higher pressure both north and south of the front.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

How did we get snow in Feb 2019 and last December then?  I also clearly remember they showed us getting no snow a day before the blast in Nov 2010.  The models usually miss the sliding convergence zone that is inevitable with Arctic fronts.  The models often overdo the shadowing from the Olympics going into these.

In Feb 2019, everything turned to rain 12 hours earlier before everybody else in the donut hole that formed over north Pierce County. 
 

Also, I’m not saying that the donut hole will be that big. Just often when it shows itself on multiple models for multiple days, it will probably happen, 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Euro drops 850’s to -10 for Seattle with the first trough Monday night.

That is way colder than previous runs.  This is getting really interesting.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

In Feb 2019, everything turned to rain 12 hours earlier before everybody else in the donut hole that formed over north Pierce County. 
 

Also, I’m not saying that the donut hole will be that big. Just often when it shows itself on multiple models for multiple days, it will probably happen, 

There were three separate snow events in Feb 2019.  The first two didn't turn to rain.

[Slushy Inch]

Several hours of snow for western Washington Tuesday night on Euro, might warm up briefly afterwards.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That is way colder than previous runs.  This is getting really interesting.

While it’s technically a warning shot…it’s almost hard to call it that with how much colder it’s trended the last few days. That’s pretty legit. 

[RentonHill]

Stronger but still north with second system

[snow_wizard]

If this ECMWF run verifies snow would be inevitable for Seattle with the second shot.  Just the right amount of over water trajectory.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

In Feb 2019, everything turned to rain 12 hours earlier before everybody else in the donut hole that formed over north Pierce County. 
 

Also, I’m not saying that the donut hole will be that big. Just often when it shows itself on multiple models for multiple days, it will probably happen, 

Models also underplay the amount of snow. We still have time 

[Slushy Inch]

Very brief warmup on Euro. Then back to snow.

[joelgombiner]

I didn't realize how much of a widespread snowpack is already in place. This will enhance the cold. 

 

[Doinko]

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Models also underplay the amount of snow. We still have time 

Oh yea not trying to be a weenie. Just from past experience over the last decade, there usually is some sort of donut hole over the area

Still a long way out 

[Snownerd3000]

I find it surprising on how much each run gets progressively better and better from one model to the next. Gonna be fun times ahead. 

[ShawniganLake]

Potential south wind event middle of next week between cold shots. 
 

 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh yea not trying to be a weenie. Just from past experience over the last decade, there usually is some sort of donut hole over the area

Still a long way out 

I got you. My bad experiences come from that stupid big fat East wind snow eater meanie!

That and being to low in elevation sometimes 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks primed for a reload.

[TacomaWx]

There’s still some time for the low to shift south but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the euro verify pretty close to this. It gets cold very fast with the 2nd shot. 

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh yea not trying to be a weenie. Just from past experience over the last decade, there usually is some sort of donut hole over the area

Still a long way out 

You live in Puyallup? That valley area is not a good spot. It will rain there in the middle of an Arctic blast.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh yea not trying to be a weenie. Just from past experience over the last decade, there usually is some sort of donut hole over the area

Still a long way out 

Some people almost always get shadowed in a cold showery NW flow. It almost never snows here in that situation and places along the east slope of the Olympics are in a similar situation. Things change dramatically if we see any type of low pressure spin up off the coast 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Euro still modeling a donut hole for central puget sound.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Euro still modeling a donut hole for central puget sound.

Not as bad though, starting to fill in. 

[Terreboner]

Devil is in the details.  Someone will get nailed with a PSCZ at some point.  My money would be on Clearview, they always seem to be in the crosshairs.

As far as down here we need a surface low to spin up Coos Bay south.  Going to be lots of surprises for the next couple of weeks.  Good or bad, going to be a hell of a lot of fun!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

[TacomaWx]

-10C on the 1st shot and -14C with the 2nd shot here. Little bit of snow here as well. Very legit run I’d be happy if it verified like this. 

[RentonHill]

850s colder by Day 8. -16 for Seattle 

[Timmy]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Not as bad though, starting to fill in. 

Oregon?

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

You live in Puyallup? That valley area is not a good spot. It will rain there in the middle of an Arctic blast.

Sumner, but the same as downtown Puyallup. And we do get a good amounts of snow. 

[Timmy]

Wow

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

Just like the 00z but colder! 

[snow_wizard]

I'll warn people to take the snowfall projections with a grain of salt at this point.  These northern blasts almost find a way to produce snow for the Central Puget Sound.  This ECMWF run is better.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Not as bad though, starting to fill in. 

It’s too early to worry much about it. If a low spins up or an arctic front moves down (both are very plausible scenarios) then there won’t be a central sound donut hole. This has happened plenty of times in the lead up to big events only for us to end up with lots of snow still. 

[Terreboner]

Euro is bringing a hard freeze to Redding.  Holy Cow!!!

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Oregon?

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

12 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I got you. My bad experiences come from that stupid big fat East wind snow eater meanie!

That and being to low in elevation sometimes 

The donut hole and east wind is a one two punch. The Puyallup valley is the worst area in Washington

Edited November 24, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[snow_wizard]

Getting better!

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

Looks like some moisture coming in hour 216. They don’t show moisture on that model for the euro

Edited November 24, 2022 by Timmy

[TacomaWx]

850s bottom out at -17C at my house on this run!