November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Timmy]

12 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Pendleton NWS has to be the laziest office in the region.  Copy and paste for entire 24 hour periods sometimes.

Dude… it’s thanksgiving 

[Meatyorologist]

Actually kind of fondly thinking back on some dry blasts for my location (Dec 2009/Dec 2013/Jan 2017). I love the super easy cold anomalies and thick, long lasting ice, and brilliantly clear air.

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gonna be brutally honest... If the Seattle area gets screwed in the snow department and Portland gets nailed, that's still a W in my book.

Clear cold is still fun and we've been blessed here these last few years. I think we've made up for the 2013-18 debt in just about every regard (subfreezing highs, massive overperforming snowstorms in particular). If it's time to share the love, you'll see me cheering on the sidelines, not sobbing. (Still rooting for #BIG$NOWS though!!!)

I just want enough snow going into any blast that it drops temperatures by a couple of degrees. It's tragic to have perfect upper level conditions, but the temperatures don't reach their full potential because there's no snow.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gonna be brutally honest... If the Seattle area gets screwed in the snow department and Portland gets nailed, that's still a W in my book.

Clear cold is still fun and we've been blessed here these last few years. I think we've made up for the 2013-18 debt in just about every regard (subfreezing highs, massive overperforming snowstorms in particular). If it's time to share the love, you'll see me cheering on the sidelines, not sobbing. (Still rooting for #BIG$NOWS though!!!)

Stop being such an adult about this  

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gonna be brutally honest... If the Seattle area gets screwed in the snow department and Portland gets nailed, that's still a W in my book.

Clear cold is still fun and we've been blessed here these last few years. I think we've made up for the 2013-18 debt in just about every regard (subfreezing highs, massive overperforming snowstorms in particular). If it's time to share the love, you'll see me cheering on the sidelines, not sobbing. (Still rooting for #BIG$NOWS though!!!)

No need to worry about all that. 

I think this will be a win for everyone 

[Meatyorologist]

Also, we are definitely due for a pullback. Mentally prepare yourselves, sometimes these can get really ugly. Doesn't mean it's not coming though!

One of the more extreme examples of this happened in the days leading up to our regional blockbuster Feb 2019 event. Around 5 days out models almost completely bailed for a day and a half. Cold rains, Arctic air sliding east, all of it. Even the ensembles too! But around T minus 4 days they all reversed course in unison and we never looked back.

[Kolk1604]

Surface Temps anomalies. Strong signal at hour 336

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gonna be brutally honest... If the Seattle area gets screwed in the snow department and Portland gets nailed, that's still a W in my book.

Clear cold is still fun and we've been blessed here these last few years. I think we've made up for the 2013-18 debt in just about every regard (subfreezing highs, massive overperforming snowstorms in particular). If it's time to share the love, you'll see me cheering on the sidelines, not sobbing. (Still rooting for #BIG$NOWS though!!!)

Mother Nature doesn't reward sanctimoniousness, you know. 

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I just want enough snow going into any blast that it drops temperatures by a couple of degrees. It's tragic to have perfect upper level conditions, but the temperatures don't reach their full potential because there's no snow.

This is a good point. Even an inch or so would make a massive difference in temps.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

No need to worry about all that. 

I think this will be a win for everyone 

SHOUT IT FROM THE ROOFTOPS KOLK!

[TacomaWx]

20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You're already worried.  Lol

Way too early to even worry about if/where snow is coming. I’m still not 100% sold on the second shot being as amazing as it looks at the moment.  I’m feeling pretty good about the first shot of cold air though and maybe a bit of lowland snow. Still too early to pin down details on that too. 

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

This is a good point. Even an inch or so would make a massive difference in temps.

It's a visual or aesthetics thing for me.  The white landscape makes a big difference 

[T-Town]

13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gonna be brutally honest... If the Seattle area gets screwed in the snow department and Portland gets nailed, that's still a W in my book.

Clear cold is still fun and we've been blessed here these last few years. I think we've made up for the 2013-18 debt in just about every regard (subfreezing highs, massive overperforming snowstorms in particular). If it's time to share the love, you'll see me cheering on the sidelines, not sobbing. (Still rooting for #BIG$NOWS though!!!)

The Lord has bestowed so many blessings on Tacoma, it’s understandable and ok with me if he chooses to bless others with more snow. 

[ShawniganLake]

I wish positive thinking actually made it snow at everyone’s house. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

It's a visual or aesthetics thing for me.  The white landscape makes a big difference 

Yea for me you’ve gotta get atleast an inch of snow to coat everything going into a blast that sticks around for a few days or it’s just not as fun IMO. 

[Front Ranger]

Yet another cold blast NOT happening in January...

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Way too early to even worry about if/where snow is coming. I’m still not 100% sold on the second shot being as amazing as it looks at the moment.  I’m feeling pretty good about the first shot of cold air though and maybe a bit of lowland snow. Still too early to pin down details on that too. 

If we were talking about the GFS, I would agree with you. But each Euro and EPS run is consistent and is getting better and better 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The Lord has bestowed so many blessings on Tacoma, it’s understandable and ok with me if he chooses to bless others with more snow. 

If I was betting I’d say we’ve got a pretty good chance at getting atleast an inch of snow out of this event. I’m not feeling any major snow event coming from this at this time but that can change very quickly once the ball gets rolling next week. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I wish positive thinking actually made it snow at everyone’s house. 

On the other hand, Mother Nature is a sucker for reverse psychology.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

If we were talking about the GFS, I would agree with you. But each Euro and EPS run is consistent and is getting better and better 

More water trajectory on this run....and colder after the Arctic front passes through.  Noice!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

If we were talking about the GFS, I would agree with you. But each Euro and EPS run is consistent and is getting better and better 

There’s no denying it looks really good right now but things are subject to change a week out. The initial shot is just a couple days out and has consistently improved in terms of cold. I’m feeling pretty confident about that one. I’m just cautiously optimistic about the second shot a week out. So far there’s no reason to be alarmed about it not working out but it’s not set in stone. 

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yet another cold blast NOT happening in January...

Given this, what sort of numbers do you guys think this thing would need to put up to earn the coveted "top tier" status?

For your location or favorite airport.

[T-Town]

Pretty nice day. 

[SnowWillarrive]

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gonna be brutally honest... If the Seattle area gets screwed in the snow department and Portland gets nailed, that's still a W in my book.

Clear cold is still fun and we've been blessed here these last few years. I think we've made up for the 2013-18 debt in just about every regard (subfreezing highs, massive overperforming snowstorms in particular). If it's time to share the love, you'll see me cheering on the sidelines, not sobbing. (Still rooting for #BIG$NOWS though!!!)

Mossman would disagree 

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yet another cold blast NOT happening in January...

[High Desert Mat?]

We could have highs in the 60’s and Jim will still tell us we’ll have cold anomalies. Jk Jim!!!

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Given this, what sort of numbers do you guys think this thing would need to put up to earn the coveted "top tier" status?

For your location or favorite airport.

I’d consider something like 25/17 at Sea-Tac and 24/15 here pretty up there. The models are showing temp spreads pretty similar to that next week. 

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

If we were talking about the GFS, I would agree with you. But each Euro and EPS run is consistent and is getting better and better 

How did those EPS snow maps work out earlier this month?

[Terreboner]

29 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Dude… it’s thanksgiving 

They do it all year.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Given this, what sort of numbers do you guys think this thing would need to put up to earn the coveted "top tier" status?

For your location or favorite airport.

Low of 5 or below at Shawnigan Lake. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

More water trajectory on this run....and colder after the Arctic front passes through.  Noice!

Yeah that's ideal.  

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If I was betting I’d say we’ve got a pretty good chance at getting atleast an inch of snow out of this event. I’m not feeling any major snow event coming from this at this time but that can change very quickly once the ball gets rolling next week. 

It sounds like we should have several chances to see some snow.  I’ll enjoy whatever happens. I no longer find the rug pulls to be soul crushing like I used to. One of the few advantages of getting old I guess. 

[Cold Snap]

Got down to 32 this morning. 15th freeze for the month. Really liking the trends on the EPS. Someone could see something big next week if things hold or continue to trend better.

[TacomaWx]

Looking at Sea-Tac there’s some pretty low hanging fruit for record lows on 12/2/1985 (25) and 12/3/1994 (27). Those could be in jeopardy potentially coming up. 

[Nov1985]

Then there's this. 

 

[joelgombiner]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Given this, what sort of numbers do you guys think this thing would need to put up to earn the coveted "top tier" status?

For your location or favorite airport.

Scenes like this on Green Lake 

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Given this, what sort of numbers do you guys think this thing would need to put up to earn the coveted "top tier" status?

For your location or favorite airport.

IMBY, at least 20” of snow and a few days of highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

It sounds like we should have several chances to see some snow.  I’ll enjoy whatever happens. I no longer find the rug pulls to be soul crushing like I used to. One of the few advantages of getting old I guess. 

I doubt early December is our one shot at snow and cold this winter too. Some others have mentioned historically getting a decent snow/cold event in November or early December bodes well for another chance at snow later in the winter. 

[OysterPrintout]

Washington posters going hard on jinxing Portland. Totally unnecessary. We all know how this will play out. 

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I doubt early December is our one shot at snow and cold this winter too. Some others have mentioned historically getting a decent snow/cold event in November or early December bodes well for another chance at snow later in the winter. 

Early to mid January.