Nov1985 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Crazy_low is still crazy in the 18Z. Fun to watch this evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: I can’t believe my sister is telling me to put my phone away and talk with the family. DOESN’T SHE KNOW WHAT TIME THE 18Z COMES OUT????!?!?!?? DOES SHE NOT KNOW WHATS COMING? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Moving back to the swamp brb 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Moving back to the swamp brb You want to live in Florida why? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 lock it in 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Some really cold air being forecast in BC. Feels like a weather pattern that will stay for a while. Getting highly confident we'll get some Arctic air now... But whether it interacts with Pacific moisture or not is up in the air (lol) 5 1 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: lock it in Very sharp Arctic front on this run. Mid 30s in Salem and low 20s in Portland with snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Some really cold air being forecast in BC. Feels like a weather pattern that will stay for a while. Getting highly confident we'll get some Arctic air now... But whether it interacts with Pacific moisture or not is up in the air (lol) I hope a cold pool in the Columbia Basin is established keeping Portland freezing 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 30 minutes ago, Terreboner said: Curious if anyone has a drunk uncle over to watch the Druncle? I am the drunk uncle, but my fam is on the east coast so Facetime will have to do. will be there for xmas so expect a blizzard here while i'm gone. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Hard to trust any of that when they show freezing rain at the mountain peaks. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: I am the drunk uncle, but my fam is on the east coast so Facetime will have to do. will be there for xmas so expect a blizzard here while i'm gone. I'm drinking horse feathers if anyone is interested in partaking in such nonsense 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 I think it might snow. After getting the plow ready I got the rest of the outside Christmas light up and cleaned the gutters at the same time. Had to take advantage of this spectacular day! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 GFS has a really cool transition from -EPO to +EPO without the switchover from -PNA. Means Arctic air to a fun NW flow regime with building mountain snowpack instead of straight into Pineapples. Also provides the opportunity for that GOA ridge to drift over and create another potent inversion pattern. 6 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 4 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: I tend to agree. With NE gradients and sub -10 850s, surface low development off Vancouver Island is generally a very good bet. November 2006! Please and thank you. I'll never forget that epic snowstorm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 25 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: The small spinoff from crazy low makes landfall around then. Crazy baby low? The spinoff is a new feature from 18Z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 Beastly ridge. 3 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 dang druncle. dude got all up in his stash 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 18z GEFS 850s trended quite a bit colder for Tuesday into Wednesday. 4 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: dang druncle. dude got all up in his stash The Euro has a low of 6 for me on 12/3... what do we call it? Drunk Titi? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 The 18z EPS is going to go out to that timeframe now. Hopefully it trends colder as well. 3 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted November 24, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 18z GFS is strikingly similar to last December's evolution, but with more southerly extent to the Arctic air. Last December blocking was just east enough to bring Arctic air down to Chehalis, but only briefly past there. This go around blocking looks to set up in the prime spot for the whole PNW, and its persistence and efficacy looks equal to or greater than last year. 11 2 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: The Euro has a low of 6 for me on 12/3... what do we call it? Drunk Titi? let me get some Spokane, please and thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 24, 2022 Report Share Posted November 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 18z GFS is strikingly similar to last December's evolution, but with more southerly extent to the Arctic air. Last December blocking was just east enough to bring Arctic air down to Chehalis, but only briefly past there. This go around blocking looks to set up in the prime spot for the whole PNW, and its persistence and efficacy looks equal to or greater than last year. It’s been since, what 2013 since we got one down to SW OR? 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: let me get some Spokane, please and thanks! 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said: lock it in Certainly nice but I find those Weatherbell maps are too biased towards showing snow as the precip type. It is up to 37F in parts of the northern Willamette valley at HR 174 but the Weatherbell map makes it look like it is almost all snow. I find the tropical tidbits map to be a bit more realistic. Still a pretty nice track with the low coming in near the mouth of the columbia river and drifting SE. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 850s on the 18z NAM look pretty good for snow Sunday night if there’s moisture. 4 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 18z GFS is strikingly similar to last December's evolution, but with more southerly extent to the Arctic air. Last December blocking was just east enough to bring Arctic air down to Chehalis, but only briefly past there. This go around blocking looks to set up in the prime spot for the whole PNW, and its persistence and efficacy looks equal to or greater than last year. Even though the Arctic air only made it here briefly, we still managed a subfreezing high which was great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 A few days ago my forecast was saying snow snow snow, but now it's rain! Beautiful day today with Mount Baker is full glory. The foothills are noticeably dry with no snow like they usually are from here. Anyways, hope everyone is having a fantastic Thanksgiving! Many blessings to count including this great weather community! Thanks for all the knowledge gained this year and wisdom from some very wise people here! Hope you have a fantastic Thanksgiving filled with good food, family, friends, and cheer! Tomorrow it's Christmas decorations!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 NWS Spokane honking Monday through Wednesday night: A backdoor front will slide into the area on Monday with a secondary one on Wednesday. The Monday front will be dry but will drop high temperatures into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits to teens. The airmass will stay in the region through Tuesday before shifting eastward. The second and more impactful front will bring regionwide snow along with arctic air, meaning much colder temperatures. Ensembles are not in agreement yet but some areas could have highs in the single digits and low temps below zero. We will continue to watch and adjust the forecast as we get closer. /KM 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: NWS Spokane honking Monday through Wednesday night: A backdoor front will slide into the area on Monday with a secondary one on Wednesday. The Monday front will be dry but will drop high temperatures into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits to teens. The airmass will stay in the region through Tuesday before shifting eastward. The second and more impactful front will bring regionwide snow along with arctic air, meaning much colder temperatures. Ensembles are not in agreement yet but some areas could have highs in the single digits and low temps below zero. We will continue to watch and adjust the forecast as we get closer. /KM "Ensambles aren't in agreement"? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Front Ranger said: Given this, what sort of numbers do you guys think this thing would need to put up to earn the coveted "top tier" status? For your location or favorite airport. For my location I need 12”+ of snow, 5+ sub freezing highs, and lows in the single digits for it to be top tier. More snow can make up for warmer temps and colder temps can make up (to an extent) for lack of snow. That means that since 2000, there have only really been a couple events that were top tier by my definition. December 2008 definitely checks all the boxes and so does December 2021. February 2011 didn’t quite have the temperature support (lows in the low teens, a couple subfreezing highs), but it had so much snow that it also made the top tier list. I wasn’t here for February 2019, but it just barely squeaks in even though it didn’t have that much snow (about a foot) and the temperatures weren’t that cold. I had a couple subfreezjng highs, but not 5. I have good memories of November 2006, but it may fall just outside the bounds of top tier (I didn’t have a weather station so I don’t know what temps were here, but we got about a foot of snow). And I think this is in general is a good definition for my location because it seems we have something like this on average every 4-5 years. Sometimes it happens in consecutive years (fingers crossed) and sometimes it doesn’t happen for more than a decade. 5 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 18z ECMWF gives @MossMan a decent dumping of snow Sunday night that is not phantom snow. Though anything in the lowlands south of Snohomish county is mostly phantom snow. 1 1 1 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: NWS Spokane honking Monday through Wednesday night: A backdoor front will slide into the area on Monday with a secondary one on Wednesday. The Monday front will be dry but will drop high temperatures into the low to mid 20s with lows in the single digits to teens. The airmass will stay in the region through Tuesday before shifting eastward. The second and more impactful front will bring regionwide snow along with arctic air, meaning much colder temperatures. Ensembles are not in agreement yet but some areas could have highs in the single digits and low temps below zero. We will continue to watch and adjust the forecast as we get closer. /KM Minnesota here it comes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: 18z ECMWF gives @MossMan a decent dumping of snow Sunday night that is not phantom snow. Though anything in the lowlands south of Snohomish county is mostly phantom snow. I’m in the purple!!! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, MossMan said: I’m in the purple!!! Looks like strong westerly/northwesterly with a localized PSCZ somewhere. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Best of luck to everyone tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Best of luck to everyone tonight. Nice and crossfaded. Things are good. 4 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by smerfylicious,
Congrats!!!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
40 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by SouthHillJimmy,
Welcome Jimmy!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
21 reactions
Go to this post