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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yay there's life on the forum

Where's Rob? Can't wait for tonight's epic runs!

Man I sure hope I don’t have the epic runs tonight after all I ate today

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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Watching Snyder’s Live stream right now and he’s hinting at chances of thunder snow next week! ❄️⚡

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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13 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like a birthday party

It is my birthday today but the decorations were from my youngest daughter B Day party at the beginning of November! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow

Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile.
Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low
temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS
is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for
lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level
lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However,
given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0
temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights
to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all
mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will
arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow.
Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower
elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and
freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to
line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level
of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday
night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side.
Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several
days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model
ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF
signal. -Muessle/TK
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2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow

Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile.
Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low
temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS
is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for
lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level
lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However,
given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0
temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights
to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all
mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will
arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow.
Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower
elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and
freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to
line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level
of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday
night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side.
Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several
days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model
ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF
signal. -Muessle/TK

Anything being said about snow by NWS Seattle? I’m assuming not lol.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow

Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile.
Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low
temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS
is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for
lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level
lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However,
given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0
temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights
to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all
mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will
arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow.
Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower
elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and
freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to
line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level
of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday
night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side.
Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several
days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model
ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF
signal. -Muessle/TK

Meh. This Sunday/Monday would be a nice tune up. My attention is on the middle of next week 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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I got this! Model riding let's go!!

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  • Excited 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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🦃 Happy Thanksgiving 🍗

Model riding: 00z GFS

11/24/22 7:37 PM 00z GFS
Running.... NOW (7:35 PM)
Hoping we continue the trend of colder runs. I would like to see the amplified block tilt a bit more favorable, but as it merges with the Bering Sea high pressure cell that may not be likely. I would also like to see the second PV lobe punted further southwest over us and not just end up with really cold onshore flow, but a full on blast.
This run will or won't be....
  1. Cold enough for Socks(c)Rob 2016
  2. Wetter than a Poodle in a Car Wash(c)Rob 2003
  3. So much Snow it's whiter than an albino Snowball fight contest(c)Rob 2022
  4. Feature Colder runs Ahead(c)Rob 2017
Oh, and in case you are new here, we will ALWAYS....

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!
❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬❄️☃️❄️⛄️❄️🌬

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00z GFS Day 0 (Init):

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Feel free if you'd like. Yeah. This one is all you.

Thanks Rob! 👍 Can't make the 06z so I figured I'd do this one.

  • Thanks 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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00z GFS Day 1:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Meh. This Sunday/Monday would be a nice tune up. My attention is on the middle of next week 

I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. 

I’m excited for the convergence zone potential. Looks like there’s a chance for multiple convergence zones next week.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. 

Yeah I'm not expecting to see much unless there's a drastic change

195572.png?1673757432

 

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00z GFS Day 2:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, Cold Snap said:

I’m excited for the convergence zone potential. Looks like there’s a chance for multiple convergence zones next week.

With strong NW flow I think there’s a good chance for a “double C-zone” one coming off of Vancouver island and another off of the Olympics. Pinning where both of those end up will be interesting. 

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1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah I'm not expecting to see much unless there's a drastic change

It’ll be pretty darn cold for sure it’ll feel like winter. There could be some surprises though. I think that there’ll be some accumulating snowfall in some lucky places…but at this time I don’t think many places see accumulation. 

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00z GFS Day 3:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

  • Excited 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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00z GFS Day 4:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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