Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Best of luck to everyone tonight. just chowed some prime rib, now into a nice Walla Walla Cabernet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Yay there's life on the forum Where's Rob? Can't wait for tonight's epic runs! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Yay there's life on the forum Where's Rob? Can't wait for tonight's epic runs! Man I sure hope I don’t have the epic runs tonight after all I ate today 1 3 1 (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 So much food!! Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! 7 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Watching Snyder’s Live stream right now and he’s hinting at chances of thunder snow next week! ️ 2 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, MossMan said: So much food!! Happy Thanksgiving everyone!! Looks like a birthday party 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: just chowed some prime rib, now into a nice Walla Walla Cabernet No turkey? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Happy Thanksgiving to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Minnesota here it comes Oops, that was for Spokane, not Seattle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Top analogs. 2008! 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Looks like a birthday party It is my birthday today but the decorations were from my youngest daughter B Day party at the beginning of November! 7 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, MossMan said: It is my birthday today but the decorations were from my youngest daughter B Day party at the beginning of November! Happy birthday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, Doinko said: Happy birthday! Thanks! The model runs today were the best gift ever! 2 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile. Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However, given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0 temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow. Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side. Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF signal. -Muessle/TK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile. Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However, given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0 temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow. Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side. Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF signal. -Muessle/TK Anything being said about snow by NWS Seattle? I’m assuming not lol. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Doinko said: NWS Portland has a good bit in their AFD about lowland snow Where does the uncertainty lie? The temperature profile. Looking at the ensemble members of the ECMWF, many of the low temperature projections sit around 29-34 deg F, while the GEFS is closer to 32-36 deg F. This is a very narrow window for lowland snow. The NBM is also a bit aggressive with snow level lowering with more widespread snow levels around 0 ft. However, given the spread of outputs, and the height of wet bulb 0 temperatures around 700 ft, have manually raised those heights to around 500 ft in the Willamette Valley. So what does this all mean? There is again a timing to temperature struggle that will arise which will impact the possibility for low elevation snow. Cascades are a slam dunk for a few inches of snow. Lower elevations though need that cold air pool to stick around and freeze the full column of the atmosphere, and the timing has to line up with the arrival of precipitation. Because of this level of uncertainty, have stuck with a rain/snow mix for Monday night into Tuesday, but trending more towards the rain side. Will need to monitor the forecast closely over the next several days to identify any clear warming or cooling trends with model ensemble guidance, as well as an increasing or decreasing QPF signal. -Muessle/TK Meh. This Sunday/Monday would be a nice tune up. My attention is on the middle of next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 31 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: No turkey? Nah we rotate by year. Turkey > Crabs and Oysters > Ham > Prime Rib, repeat in a 4 year interval Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Anything being said about snow by NWS Seattle? I’m assuming not lol. The forecast discussion for tonight hasn't been posted yet, but there more optimistic about snow and the reinforcing shot next weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 It’s running.. (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I got this! Model riding let's go!! 3 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Happy Thanksgiving Model riding: 00z GFS 11/24/22 7:37 PM 00z GFS Running.... NOW (7:35 PM) Hoping we continue the trend of colder runs. I would like to see the amplified block tilt a bit more favorable, but as it merges with the Bering Sea high pressure cell that may not be likely. I would also like to see the second PV lobe punted further southwest over us and not just end up with really cold onshore flow, but a full on blast. This run will or won't be.... Cold enough for Socks(c)Rob 2016 Wetter than a Poodle in a Car Wash(c)Rob 2003 So much Snow it's whiter than an albino Snowball fight contest(c)Rob 2022 Feature Colder runs Ahead(c)Rob 2017 Oh, and in case you are new here, we will ALWAYS.... Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 0 (Init): 4 Run Trend: 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: I got this! Model riding let's go!! Feel free if you'd like. Yeah. This one is all you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Feel free if you'd like. Yeah. This one is all you. Thanks Rob! Can't make the 06z so I figured I'd do this one. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 1: 4 Run Trend: 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Meh. This Sunday/Monday would be a nice tune up. My attention is on the middle of next week I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Already looks better!! Snow touchdown!!!!!!!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. I’m excited for the convergence zone potential. Looks like there’s a chance for multiple convergence zones next week. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: I really think people on the forum in the western lowlands are going to get snow Sunday night/Monday. I think it’ll likely be in the convergence zone…so not widespread lowland snow but many other people are probably going to atleast see flakes. Yeah I'm not expecting to see much unless there's a drastic change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 2: 4 Run Trend: 2 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Cold Snap said: I’m excited for the convergence zone potential. Looks like there’s a chance for multiple convergence zones next week. With strong NW flow I think there’s a good chance for a “double C-zone” one coming off of Vancouver island and another off of the Olympics. Pinning where both of those end up will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Yeah I'm not expecting to see much unless there's a drastic change It’ll be pretty darn cold for sure it’ll feel like winter. There could be some surprises though. I think that there’ll be some accumulating snowfall in some lucky places…but at this time I don’t think many places see accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Always good to get this thing on our side. Should excite NWS 5 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 3: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Snow creeping lower up north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 00z GFS Day 3: 4 Run Trend: Ridge several notches more amplified this run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: Always good to get this thing on our side. Should excite NWS can you post a region wide on of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said: can you post a region wide on of that? Like this? Only goes out 11 days 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 00z GFS Day 4: 4 Run Trend: 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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