November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Better snowfall from the GEM. The GEM and EURO have been more aligned on snowfall totals. 

Same with the NBM

[Gradient Keeper]

The real question is over the next 48 hours of model runs what changes might we see with the secondary polar lobe, ridge placement, amplification, and tilt. I would expect some, and it would be the difference between a dry blast, or modified blast with short-over-water trajectory with snow opportunities.

[GHweatherChris]

Next

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS 10 Day Precip:

Snowfall:

[Meatyorologist]

Another run with plentiful mountain snowfall

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A more realistic progression on the GFS tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

Unfortunate trend

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS bit colder through Day 5 with the second cold shot.

[Kolk1604]

Day 6

[Gradient Keeper]

We all know it comes down to the EURO and EPS later anyways.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A more realistic progression on the GFS tonight.

Here we go again. You trash it and then believe it. Makes no sense 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Unfortunate trend

I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Unfortunate trend

I mean this is really the first run to diverge the way it did. If it’s on the 6z and 12z tomorrow I’d consider it a trend. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Doinko said:

I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run.

Ahh, your still kinda newish here.

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 (continued)

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Day 5.5 850s (Past 4 runs) Much colder tonight so far with that second lobe.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dec 2021. Honestly I feel we may simply repeat last year's cold snap.

I would be in heaven with that! 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ahh, your still kinda newish here.

Yeah this is the first event I've really looked at on the models. So I definitely have a lot to learn about reading them, but I don't think one GFS run really means much unless the next few runs continue it. And ensembles look colder

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This gfs run sux imo. I'd bet it's an outlier, for several runs there has been low pressure development more or less in the same area and now it just vanishes lol. Red flag.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I mean we've had consistently better and better runs in the past few days. Hard not to have a slightly warmer run.

It’s not warmer in the nearer range though the arctic air still hits…it’s just basically a trade off in the short term. The colder air from the first shot sticks around better which is nice. Definitely less precip which I don’t like. It changes the upstream pattern and longevity of the second shots staying power and puts us under a ridge quicker. It’s very typical to have some bad runs thrown into the lead up of some all time great events. I’m betting it’s an outlier. 

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS cancels winter, EURO uncancels winter. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Yeah this is the first event I've really looked at on the models. So I definitely have a lot to learn about reading them, but I don't think one GFS run really means much unless the next few runs continue it. And ensembles look colder

No no, you don't quite understand my message, the longtimers on here do.  I have a gift... It is actually very successful.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ahh, your still kinda newish here.

He’s the best thing to happen to this forum since I’ve been here. Keep speaking your mind @Doinko don’t let the raccoons scare you

[Phishy Wx]

times like this, stuck to the ensembles 

 

Operationals gunna Operational 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Winter cancel! Cold rain for all!

I told you Mossman was engaging the jinx.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

He’s the best thing to happen to this forum since I’ve been here. Keep speaking your mind @Doinko

Wow, your not that new.  But alas, I will somehow, some way will this potential in to something wonderful....  For my backyard at least.

[Kolk1604]

00z GEM... looks like it wants to reload at the end 

[Slushy Inch]

19 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does the GFS meteogram look like for Portland/Seattle?

Those take a while to come out.

[Kolk1604]

Back to the GEFS, Day 7

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Wow, your not that new.  But alas, I will somehow, some way will this potential in to something wonderful....  For my backyard at least.

Didn’t remember what you were doing at first but now I gotcha

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Wow, your not that new.  But alas, I will somehow, some way will this potential in to something wonderful....  For my backyard at least.

I know but just find a way to do it without scaring away the new folks

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z GEM... looks like it wants to reload at the end 

Let’s be clear…the GEM is the true drunk uncle and it’s not even close

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS colder. PDX -9c mean temp, previous -7.3c

[Kolk1604]

00z ICON (stops at 4am Friday)

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GEFS colder. PDX -9c mean temp, previous -7.3c

Looks like it matches 12z EPS for Seattle now. 

[Requiem]

The runs tonight really aren't anywhere close to bad-- and if anything we've seen pretty widespread short term improvements. Let's see some ensemble improvement and get the cold air in there before we worry about moisture exacts.

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS, ridge does not fall apart like on OP. Also, that strong trough over Canada has inched closer last three runs, maybe the crazy gem outcomes are possible. 

[GHweatherChris]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I know but just find a way to do it without scaring away the new folks

I am not worried about their sensitivities, my ways are selfish when it comes to the winter goods.

[Nov1985]

It's just the operational run throwing a dart.

December 2021 had near same crazy cold models. And models backed off and moderated in the end. Yet it was still a widespread event from Dec 27 to Dec 30. Checking the photo archive from a year ago...

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am not worried about their sensitivities, my ways are selfish when it comes to the winter goods.

Hate to break it to you, but you're getting cold rain with this one.