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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Wondering where all the cold air went on the ECMWF/EPS. It is NOWHERE close to as cold as previous runs. The PV not phasing with the arctic trough funneling bitter air south? or just the fact its digging too much off the BC coast.

You are really seeing stuff that isn't there.  The EPS is cold if you really look at it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12z runs tomorrow will either turns us into ice cubes, or it's similar dumping too much arctic air off the BC Coast and too far north. I'm stoked for the model runs ahead. It is painful how we have to thread the needle perfectly to get the ideal combo of arctic air and minimal short-over-water trajectory for snow.
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Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things?  I ask that as a serious question.  The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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FWIW at day 10 on the EPS there is almost no difference in surface temps between the 12z and 0z runs for both SEA and Portland.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things?  I ask that as a serious question.  The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week.

Agreed. It’s always a delicate setup…and the models will catch onto all kinds of scenarios because of it. All we can do is focus on potential and enjoy the ride. 

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The EPS is colder than we normally expect but it's way warmer than what it has been showing.  If it stops the warming trend we will be okay but it may continue to moderate.  It's all Mossman's fault.  He said it would happen and that it will get better so let's hope he's right.

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Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Through hour 264

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-west-t2m_f_anom-1669334400-1669334400-1670306400-40.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-west-t2m_f-1669334400-1669334400-1670284800-40.gif

I thought it was over though.  I'm just shocked at the reactions on here tonight.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things?  I ask that as a serious question.  The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week.

Sure it is, but it's also reality IF the models lock in on this solution the ECMWF Op and now EPS shows dumping arctic air off the BC Coast then the probability of this "event" being memorable decreases and it's a bummer. I can't count how many times we've seen that happen. However, 12z EURO/EPS tomorrow could easily handle the arctic trough more favorably. Who knows. This is why we model ride.

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1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

The EPS is colder than we normally expect but it's way warmer than what it has been showing.  If it stops the warming trend we will be okay but it may continue to moderate.  It's all Mossman's fault.  He said it would happen and that it will get better so let's hope he's right.

At the surface there is little difference.  It's being way overstated.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Sure it is, but it's also reality IF the models lock in on this solution the ECMWF Op and now EPS shows dumping arctic air off the BC Coast then the probability of this "event" being memorable decreases and it's a bummer. I can't count how many times we've seen that happen. However, 12z EURO/EPS tomorrow could easily handle the arctic trough more favorably. Who knows. This is why we model ride.

As I said at the surface there is little difference 12z vs 0z.

This is going to be fine.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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While things are by no means settled (GEM!) the general trend does seem to want to weaken the block which isn't great. Also, there seems to be a theme thus far this season to dig troughs too far offshore. Lots of frigid air just getting dumped right over the ocean which I don't love.

00z EPS control shows a similar solution as the operational.

Screen Shot 2022-11-25 at 8.41.25 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The EPS is colder than we normally expect but it's way warmer than what it has been showing.  If it stops the warming trend we will be okay but it may continue to moderate.  It's all Mossman's fault.  He said it would happen and that it will get better so let's hope he's right.

Dang that Randy! 🤣

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You are really seeing stuff that isn't there.  The EPS is cold if you really look at it.

I'm looking and it's really not that cold. Troughs are digging too far offshore and the block isn't holding.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Kayla said:

While things are by no means settled (GEM!) the general trend does seem to want to weaken the block which isn't great. Also, there seems to be a theme thus far this season to dig troughs too far offshore. Lots of frigid air just getting dumped right over the ocean which I don't love.

00z EPS control shows a similar solution as the operational.

Screen Shot 2022-11-25 at 8.41.25 AM.png

And this is how we've seen what may have been an arctic blast fizzle out quickly. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but we don't want to see this solution on too many more runs either.

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is it ever possible to have fun going into one of these things?  I ask that as a serious question.  The same thing happens every time and most of the time they work out when they are inside of a week.

Yeah I feel this too. I feel like this still has a good chance for working out for Washington folks Olympia north at least.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

While things are by no means settled (GEM!) the general trend does seem to want to weaken the block which isn't great. Also, there seems to be a theme thus far this season to dig troughs too far offshore. Lots of frigid air just getting dumped right over the ocean which I don't love.

00z EPS control shows a similar solution as the operational.

Screen Shot 2022-11-25 at 8.41.25 AM.png

EPS has block indefinity. The entire run.

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6 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

EPS has block indefinity. The entire run.

As I said, it weakens it, not eliminates.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The good news is that the SE ridge looks to maintain for the foreseeable future.

I actually really like the look of the EPS late in the run. Plenty of high latitude blocking. Lots of potential there.

Screen Shot 2022-11-25 at 8.53.20 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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What a joy it must be to live near or east of the Rockies where one has no such concern. A man named Jim never has to fret if the pattern will align perfectly, if there is too much ocean influence, and another man named Rob assuming lives near Three Forks would never have worries of warm air advection and this would not make Jim angry ruining the mood for all.

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Jim just needs to chill and not tell people how to feel. Good grief. He acts like a 12 year old and is blindly looking at models sometimes. They did in fact trend warmer. They did in fact get less amplified. They also don’t care what you wish either Jim. They are going to do what they are going to do no matter how much you complain and bark at others, like they have some control over it. Just be realistic and see what others see. You think if everyone sees snow on a model that’s what’s going to happen? Lmao. I love your enthusiasm on this forum but reality is reality. Drag queen story time is over. 

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