November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

Just think if the LRC is really in effect and we do this again around New Years!

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d be happy with something below 14F. Hasn’t dropped below -10C since I moved to this house in 2014. 

I hit 3 degrees here last December which I was not expecting since we typically do great with snow right here but not so much with min temps unlike places like the Arlington airport which is regularly much cooler than me during clear cold nights. 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Just think if the LRC is really in effect and we do this again around New Years!

Weeklies showed this 

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile a very gloomy wet morning here with 41 degrees.  Looks like a fair shot at holding highs in the low 40s here today.  That would make a much cooler Thanksgiving / Friday combo that had been expected after yesterday's 51/30 and last night's low of 36.

[Doinko]

GEM

[MossMan]

.40” already on the day, 7.09” on the not so dry month here. 
Currently dumping buckets and dark! 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I hit 3 degrees here last December which I was not expecting since we typically do great with snow right here but not so much with min temps unlike places like the Arlington airport which is regularly much cooler than me during clear cold nights. 

Snow cover makes such a difference.  I will never forget how fast it plunged into the single digits here Nov 2010 after the snow.  That night would have made a run at zero if the clearing had held.

[Gradient Keeper]

8 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Need fuel for the Night Shift later. Here's the dilemma. I want pizza. I only see Totinos. Growing up when I was a kid that was a treat, and now they taste like fresh dog shit. I do need model riding fuel though.... Resorting to a sandwich at this point would be depressing like admitting defeat to the possible crummy 00z EURO/EPS trends. Cereal is okay, but feels like a heck of a compromise. Apple slices? I may as well strap on a helmet and get a coloring book. This is not too dissimilar to when I was in Bi-mart yesterday. Friggin New Kids on the Block was playing over the PA. I felt like I was being thrown off a bridge. I was about to end it right there next to the pillows and almonds. Just have to keep trudging on. Better model runs ahead.

I barely remember typing this. Oh, I did opt for the pizza. I added fresh mozzarella, fresh parmesan, basil, italian seasoning, sliced olives, a dash of cayenne red pepper, and it actually turned out pretty dang good!

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 2 minutes

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Weeklies showed this 

Maybe just maybe this could be our year.

[Randyc321]

In current weather news……It is awesome outside right now.  

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[Tyler Mode]

This November will go down with my only sub-60 high for the entire month.  Previous record was 61.  Only had records since 2011, but still.

Also 16th freeze this morning, adding to the monthly record.

[SouthHillFrosty]

I can’t believe some ppl canceled winter last night smh

[TacomaWx]

We’re roughly 60 hours away from the first shot of cold air and the beginning of the overall pattern shift. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 5 850s (Past 4 runs) Trending colder!

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS now show a mean of -9.6 on the 850s on the 30th which is the coldest yet.  That's only the first shot!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 model comparison. 850s GEFS, GFS. GEFS much colder!

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe just maybe this could be our year.

We deserve it. All the heat we endured. 

[MossMan]

I told you there would be a temporary downturn in the models right after I got my mower converted to plow duty. Has happened every single time now! Looks like we are already bouncing back though, usually takes about two days so we are in great shape!

[Randyc321]

34 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

IF only the EURO follows this later. We would not be able to contain ourselves, and I'd probably pee a little. Who are we kidding. A LOT.

Time for some model riding apparel

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

In current weather news……It is awesome outside right now.  

IMG_0684.MOV

You actually got some fall color.  Here the leaves basically withered and are down already.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

You actually got some fall color.  Here the leaves basically withered and are down already.

Well I’m sure you probably hand picked them off the trees in your area to accelerate the winter transition too. 

[TT-SEA]

Is the 12Z GFS scenario for Wednesday similar to what happened in December 1990 in the Seattle area?

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

This November will go down with my only sub-60 high for the entire month.  Previous record was 61.  Only had records since 2011, but still.

Also 16th freeze this morning, adding to the monthly record.

I have a very good shot at every low being 40 or below.  It wouldn't surprise me if that has never happened in my records.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well I’m sure you probably hand picked them off the trees in your area to accelerate the winter transition too. 

Not this time. 

I really am glad you guys got such a kick out of that.

[Front Ranger]

37 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Our pee would freeze before it hit the ground if this absurdity verified. 

 

Hey, all time record low for Hoquiam.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the 12Z GFS scenario for Wednesday similar to what happened in December 1990 in the Seattle area?

Pretty similar although the snow area wasn't as widespread with that one as what is being shown.  That was another that is burned into my memory.  Great event!

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEFS Day 6 850s (Past 4 runs) Yeahhhhhhhhhhhh!

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hey, all time record low for Hoquiam.

Four degrees colder than Yakima. Seems doable.

[Gradient Keeper]

We're going to end up with a mega cold pool and prolific low level blast for a week+

[bainbridgekid]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Is the 12Z GFS scenario for Wednesday similar to what happened in December 1990 in the Seattle area?

That one was more of a thin, intense convergence zone along the arctic front. Most of Seattle got 6-12" of snow, but SEA got very little with that one. What the 12z shows would be more of a widespread snowfall with the low coming across the South Sound. Looks more like 11/22/10 to me.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

It has really gotten onto the sustained cold bandwagon now.  I'm thinking the ECMWF will move toward the GFS.  I forgot to mention the 6z EPS control was better than the 0z at day 6.

[Snownerd3000]

Looks like we lose this ridge but a new ridge is already forming towards the end of the run

[Randyc321]

19 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I barely remember typing this. Oh, I did opt for the pizza. I added fresh mozzarella, fresh parmesan, basil, italian seasoning, sliced olives, a dash of cayenne red pepper, and it actually turned out pretty dang good!

12z ECMWF in 1 hour 2 minutes

You sure you don't smoke weed?  That sounds very much like a late night stoner snack.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Feast your eyeballs on this!!

Good model agreement between the 12z GEM, GFS and ICON for the middle of next week. Snow down to sea level or pretty close west of the Cascades during the Wednesday night into Thursday time period.

[Nov1985]

Next Saturday evening 850 and mslp, past 4 runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO is finally going to drop the Siberian Sledgehammer. Ya gotta believe!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

That one was more of a thin, intense convergence zone along the arctic front. Most of Seattle got 6-12" of snow, but SEA got very little with that one. What the 12z shows would be more of a widespread snowfall with the low coming across the South Sound. Looks more like 11/22/10 to me.

I think the Arctic front was so overpowering in Dec 1990 that is screwed places south of Seattle.  The wind shift period was just too brief for places further south.  I was lucky to be living in the zone at that time.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

You sure you don't smoke weed?  That sounds very much like a late night stoner snack.

Negative. Pizza is LIFE.