November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

4cast contest???

KOLD and SNOWY!!!! 

[RentonHill]

GEFS is 2 kchold 2 schneuax

[Omegaraptor]

17 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Good luck, Washingtonians. I would like my chances if I were you. Hopefully this doesn’t end up like December of last year when the arctic boundary hung up just north of the state border and we ended up with unimpressive temps and a few flakes. 

I'll be in Sunriver end of December. Let the northerners have their event now. In a month the southern PNW will score big!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'll be in Sunriver end of December. Let the northerners have their event now. In a month the southern PNW will score big!

That could be true.  The next round of cold might be so epic it will be bone dry up here.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is the first GEFS run(I believe?) to dig the arctic trough down over WA and most of OR instead of swinging it to the east-southeast. I know its the GFS, but this to me gives a slim glimmer of hope for 00z runs tonight. C'MON!!!! Ya gotta believe!!!!!!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This is the first GEFS run(I believe?) to dig the arctic trough down over WA and most of OR instead of swinging it to the east-southeast. I know its the GFS, but this to me gives a slim glimmer of hope for 00z runs tonight. C'MON!!!! Ya gotta believe!!!!!!!!!!

I'm glad.  I really hate to see you torture yourself.

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass, Craig-Omahawx, and DJ are onboard! 

[FroYoBro]

Jim is going full Jim. Gotta love it! 

[MossMan]

I’m a bit bummed that the rain stopped with .99” in the gauge. 

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm glad.  I really hate to see you torture yourself.

I mean, you must be doing this on purpose.

[Meatyorologist]

It could always schwing back! Plenty of time to change

[TT-SEA]

39 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You preaching anything to anyone about blinders is Heeeeelarious.

 

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I mean, you must be doing this on purpose.

 

Can you imagine if I said this?    Fred might hunt me down in real life.    

I disavow any irony you are pointing out because I was a jerk back in 2012.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim's thermometer reads low. 

[Winterdog]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

I’m a bit bummed that the rain stopped with .99” in the gauge. 

I'm at .92" today with 6.84” for the month.  47/39 today and 40 now.  

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

 

Can you imagine if I said this?    Fred might hunt me down in real life.    

I disavow any irony you are pointing out because I was a jerk back in 2012.   

Sh*t, I was a jerk three minutes ago.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jim's thermometer reads low. 

It was a thought.   And for the record... I love Jim and know he is meticulous about record keeping.  

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 7

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jim's thermometer reads low. 

But it’s calibrated, bro.

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass, Craig-Omahawx, and DJ are onboard! 

Thanks to the GEFS handling the trough nearly the same as the Op. If not, then I would not be on board.

00z GFS in 4 hours 20 minutes

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass, Craig-Omahawx, and DJ are onboard! 

StormChaserChuck says NEXT.

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cliff Mass, Craig-Omahawx, and DJ are onboard! 

What about Kevin Martin and Richard Mann?

[fubario]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

USA!

Is a tie with England a win?    

No. A win against Iran is a win.

[Deweydog]

MODERATE RAIN

[TacomaWx]

Down to 40 here with 0.68” in the bucket. Nice to see the GEFS is still on board. 

[TT-SEA]

I actually think its a good sign that that the 18Z GFS did not shift in a significant way.    As much as we mock the 18Z GFS... there are many times it shifts in the mid range from the 12Z run and that change sticks on future runs.   

[Gradient Keeper]

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What about Kevin Martin and Richard Mann?

I already covered Richard Mann earlier. He is not onboard. It’s¥£><not|{}#_going$:;(@to[?]snow£. 

[Nov1985]

25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It could always schwing back! Plenty of time to change

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It's one model!  There are many others out there.  Might be worth a look!

Euro has the highest resolution, it's more than likely the correct solution

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually think its a good sign that that the 18Z GFS did not shift in a significant way.    As much as we mock the 18Z GFS... there are many times it shifts in the mid range from the 12Z run and that change sticks on future runs.   

There’s been a few occurrences regarding snow and cold where the euro actually caved to the gfs…but it’s definitely not common. 

[MossMan]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Euro has the highest resolution, it's more than likely the correct solution

Euro is trash. GFS is the new king! 

[Terreboner]

Huge, I mean huge 00z runs tonight.  If they go south then surely the Gradient Keeper is turning into the Gradient Weeper!!!!

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I already covered Richard Mann earlier. He is not onboard. It’s¥£><not|{}#_going$:;(@to[?]snow£. 

Where was that at?

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Euro has the highest resolution, it's more than likely the correct solution

 It has biases though.  Pushing too much energy SW ahead of a block is one of those.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s been a few occurrences regarding snow and cold where the euro actually caved to the gfs…but it’s definitely not common. 

But in this case there are many models that are disagreeing with the ECMWF.  No one model is THAT much better than the others.

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Euro is trash. GFS is the new king! 

That is what it has been for the past couple of years now, especially after February 2021. 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I already covered Richard Mann earlier. He is not onboard. It’s¥£><not|{}#_going$:;(@to[?]snow£. 

&^%%%pp*(()Why%**(((&@doesn't**&$$#he$^(come(%%$$#on%here#$)($%%^anymore?

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

That is what it has been for the past couple of years now, especially after February 2021. 

Sometimes it does screw the pooch.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Euro is trash. GFS is the new king! 

ICON is the ace.

[bainbridgekid]

Really distinct back edge to the cold front today. Looks like it goes from solid thick cloudcover to complete sunshine in about a mile.