November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I was thinking places that had the back edge move in before dark would be treated to a beautiful sunset. Very nice.

The sky turned almost dark pink/red here a bit ago while it was raining pretty good outside which was pretty weird. Didn’t get the nice sunset down here. 

[snow_wizard]

38.8 with rain falling here.  Sure wasn't expecting it to be this chilly.  Looks like I have a great shot at the coldest November of the century here now.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I think everyone Seattle north really has nothing to worry about right now. The 12z Euro still showed a 2-5 inch event Wednesday in east King county and Snohomish county north.

I’m feeling pretty good about some interesting weather even down here in the south sound still. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Solid negative departures at PDX and SLE today. 

This is ending up a really chilly month.  I've had 16 freezing mins and it appears a few more will happen.

[snow_wizard]

OK...18z EPS just started to run.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The sky turned almost dark pink/red here a bit ago while it was raining pretty good outside which was pretty weird. Didn’t get the nice sunset down here. 

Two nights ago there was a bright pink sunset above a shallow fog layer at the in-laws down in Tigard. Made for some pink fog, pictures don’t really do it justice but it looked pretty cool.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

54 minutes ago, administrator said:

I hear there is a political subforum where you can post about minimum wage being too high and "CNN Fred" won't see it.

Wouldn't it be best if I don't post anything at all? I think it would. Or maybe just post things about sports on here?? That is ok I can see lol!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Two nights ago there was a bright pink sunset above a shallow fog layer at the in-laws down in Tigard. Made for some pink fog, pictures don’t really do it justice but it looked pretty cool.

 

I've only seen lighting like that a couple times before. Great stuff.

[Terreboner]

Got some lights up today, Bad Santa is on the TV.  Now just need some snow outside.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

I already covered Richard Mann earlier. He is not onboard. It’s¥£><not|{}#_going$:;(@to[?]snow£. 

̲̤ͷΣ^$Iׁב؆hope#?֍۩۱that@&%you\%getᵺᵽᵮᵐa(!lotࣛࣳࢺof%=snow۞ۯۧ۩ڞݗ

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Terreboner said:

Got some lights up today, Bad Santa is on the TV.  Now just need some snow outside.

When are you expecting snow? We should have a couple inches by Monday morning, unless this thing decides to really bust. 

[TacomaWx]

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is ending up a really chilly month.  I've had 16 freezing mins and it appears a few more will happen.

What is also impressive is how many dry days we have had since the middle of June.    And that has continued in October and November with way more dry days than normal.  And I would not be surprised if December follows suit.  We have completely offset the unusually persistent rain earlier in the year to end up pretty close to climo for the year in terms of days with precip.   

[Doinko]

Will continue to track the lowering snow levels to
determine whether snow is more likely in the Willamette Valley,
but ultimately prepare for the coldest temperatures thus far
this season, and possible snow. Well into the future, that cold
air will continue to push westward filling the area with
temperatures into the teens and twenties on Friday.  -Muessle

 

NWS Portland

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Really distinct back edge to the cold front today. Looks like it goes from solid thick cloudcover to complete sunshine in about a mile.

 

Yep!!

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

When are you expecting snow? We should have a couple inches by Monday morning, unless this thing decides to really bust. 

I would think overnight Sunday as well.  All depends on shadowing of course.

[Cold Snap]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m feeling pretty good about some interesting weather even down here in the south sound still. 

Yeah I have a good feeling about the south sound too. PDX north I feel like is still in the clear for now.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I have a good feeling about the south sound too. PDX north I feel like is still in the clear for now.

Until the 00z drops the hammer!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nws going with 31/29 here on Thursday and 31/23 on Friday. Seems reasonable at this point. 

[Meatyorologist]

18z Euro actually looks like a trend reversal in the short-medium range with upstream blocking. Wonder if the 00z will continue that.

[TacomaWx]

Nws going 40/28, 38/32, 38/25 and 34/20 here next week. 

[Dave]

6 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I would think overnight Sunday as well.  All depends on shadowing of course.

I'm still in SW Bend at 3800'. It seems likely that I will see an inch or two Sunday night. I'm supposed to leave for Eugene on Monday but it looks like I might have to take the 97 route because the passes will get hammered and I have no chains. 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z Euro actually looks like a trend reversal in the short-medium range with upstream blocking. Wonder if the 00z will continue that.

18z Euro plenty cold enough through the entire run over here, fortunately.  I love to see the entire region score though.  As per usual, precip intensity and duration will be the problem here.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Nws going 40/28, 38/32, 38/25 and 34/20 here next week. 

Surprised NWS is forecasting 37/22 here on Friday. I would definitely not mind that at all

[Meatyorologist]

18z is weirder, not better. Blocking is worse and digging occurs more north. But if blocking were stronger, that low wouldn't undergo cyclogenesis as quickly. Such a tenuous situation.

[The Cats Meow]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty conservative write up.  Gonna change as things get closer.  Calling the incoming air mass "cooler" doesn't accurately describe it but I guess we'll see. Maybe this will be the correct call.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

18z is weirder, not better. Blocking is worse and digging occurs more north. But if blocking were stronger, that low wouldn't undergo cyclogenesis as quickly. Such a tenuous situation.

The only forecast that ever reigns supreme in the PNW during arctic intrusions is the NOWcast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z is weirder, not better. Blocking is worse and digging occurs more north. But if blocking were stronger, that low wouldn't undergo cyclogenesis as quickly. Such a tenuous situation.

Jim will be with you shortly. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

45F and clouding up.

[snow_wizard]

No real change on the EPS.

[Phishy Wx]

39 and rain.  gross

[Dave]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

45F and clouding up.

What do you think of Mich St -2.5 tonight? I hate betting against the Ducks but it seems like a no brainer.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

The only forecast that ever reigns supreme in the PNW during arctic intrusions is the NOWcast.

HRRR and SREF or GTFO

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

What do you think of Mich St -2.5 tonight? I hate betting against the Ducks but it seems like a no brainer.

Hammer it. That line is ridiculous. Oregon is gonna lose by 20+

[snow_wizard]

My bets are on a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF which would be just fine.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No real change on the EPS.

It appears that the 18Z EPS is actually quite a bit a warmer than the 12Z run.  And that low digs farther offshore and farther north.    Trend could definitely reverse on the 00Z run... but the 18Z run went the wrong way.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Jim will be with you shortly. 

Eh...really no change worth mentioning.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I have a feeling it will be a somber evening here unfortunately. We're not there yet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z is weirder, not better. Blocking is worse and digging occurs more north. But if blocking were stronger, that low wouldn't undergo cyclogenesis as quickly. Such a tenuous situation.

It’s always tenuous unless of course we are going to break our all time record high three days in a row. Kind of a cake walk then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s always tenuous unless of course we are going to break our all time record high three days in a row. Kind of a cake walk then.

At some point you will get to the acceptance phase.