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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


Iceresistance

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I am convinced 90% of the members on here need therapy.

me included

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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NWS Spokane pulling back, last night they were saying my lows below zero and highs in the single digits.

 

now just your run of the mill cold snap

 

Monday night through Friday: A brief break in chances for 
precipitation is expected Monday night into early Tuesday, but a 
notable increase in moisture is likely beginning Tuesday evening 
across the Inland Northwest. The could bring several inches of snow 
to the Cascades and northern portions of WA and ID through Wednesday 
night. Cascades amounts range from 5 to 10 inches over 24 hours, 
with the mountains of ID ranging from 3 to 6 inches. Lower valleys 
to see lighter amounts. 

Cold temperatures will continue, with highs about 5-10+ degrees 
below average and overnight lows, dipping into the teens and perhaps 
even the single digits at times for some favored locations. /KD

 

 

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I have a feeling it will be a somber evening here unfortunately. We're not there yet.

Hey if you're like me and have zero expectations, there's no letdown. I see nothing to indicate we'll get anything other than cold rain in the next 6-7 days or so. But that's okay for now and who knows, we could get surprised. 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At some point you will get to the acceptance phase. 

I’ll see you when you get here Andrew. I’ll be doing this all winter. It’s interesting for me to note how easy extreme heat events have gotten compared to extreme cold events during either end of the seasonal spectrum. See my sig. No reason folks should be bothered by a little real talk every now and then ;’)

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I will take 28 degree heavy snow over 12 degree light snow any day of the week.  I hate what record breaking cold does to things.  Burst pipes, cold pets, cold "me".  I would prefer some bearable temperatures with snow so I don't freeze to death, lol.

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Not sure why everyone is disregarding all of the other models right now.  The ECMWF and EPS are far from perfect in their performance..  All others are looking really good.  Euro models are still not awful either.  The semi fail they are showing plays perfectly into the known model bias of pushing too much energy under the SE quadrant of a block.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Terreboner said:

I will take 28 degree heavy snow over 12 degree light snow then clearing and sunshine.

Doesn't work for most of us on here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I am convinced 90% of the members on here need therapy.

me included

Oh yeah no doubt. We are probably either all on the spectrum or have some form of OCD. I mean for godsake the first thing I do if I wake up at 3a is grab my phone and check the 06z… This forum is a nice outlet for folks like us, USUALLY a positive outlet. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ll see you when you get here Andrew. I’ll be doing this all winter. It’s interesting for me to note how easy extreme heat events have gotten compared to extreme cold events during either end of the seasonal spectrum. See my sig. No reason folks should be bothered by a little real talk every now and then ;’)

You have sounded somewhat hopeful on here today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ll see you when you get here Andrew. I’ll be doing this all winter. It’s interesting for me to note how easy extreme heat events have gotten compared to extreme cold events during either end of the seasonal spectrum. See my sig. No reason folks should be bothered by a little real talk every now and then ;’)

I’m not bothered by it. I agree, I think all but our most extreme wishcasters know this intuitively. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane pulling back, last night they were saying my lows below zero and highs in the single digits.

 

now just your run of the mill cold snap

 

Monday night through Friday: A brief break in chances for 
precipitation is expected Monday night into early Tuesday, but a 
notable increase in moisture is likely beginning Tuesday evening 
across the Inland Northwest. The could bring several inches of snow 
to the Cascades and northern portions of WA and ID through Wednesday 
night. Cascades amounts range from 5 to 10 inches over 24 hours, 
with the mountains of ID ranging from 3 to 6 inches. Lower valleys 
to see lighter amounts. 

Cold temperatures will continue, with highs about 5-10+ degrees 
below average and overnight lows, dipping into the teens and perhaps 
even the single digits at times for some favored locations. /KD

 

 

Kind of ridiculous, but we shall see.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

I grew up in the 70s and 80s in the south (South Carolina) and played soccer starting at age 4 until 18 when I went to college in the early 90s.  was always popular in my town.  I grew up near Charleston SC.

I can see that about Charleston, it was popular in North Carolina as well, but not so much in Atlanta...at least the part of town I was in.

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Imagine if this were the Death Valley, CA forums.

The only thing we would have to talk about was who will set the all time high temperature.   That, and listening to Satanic Tim and FireWizard boast about who is the lowest BSL (Below Sea Level).

We should be happy we get weather here, is all I'm saying.

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Just realized that Wednesday is November 30th…our best chance of snow is probably on Wednesday. Would be a fitting way to end a fall with a bit of snow and cold after the first half torched so badly. Overall the second half of fall has been pretty cold. If we get an over 0.5” of snow Wednesday then it’ll be our biggest November snowfall since 2010. 

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I am convinced 90% of the members on here need therapy.

me included

Ya think?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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My feeling on next week hasn’t changed much. It wouldn’t surprise me if a few lowland places see some minor accumulation at some point along with seasonably chilly temps. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Feeling good about an interesting pattern coming up and acknowledging how ridiculously our climate has warmed in recent decades is not mutually exclusive.

It really hasn't warmed much since the early part of the century.  Winters have been colder overall since the early part of the century, and summers have warmed.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My feeling on next week hasn’t changed much. It wouldn’t surprise me if a few lowland places see some minor accumulation at some point along with seasonably chilly temps. 

Baes solely on the ECMWF suite?  Wow.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It really hasn't warmed much since the early part of the century.  Winters have been colder overall since the early part of the century, and summers have warmed.

Maybe our winters have had more in the way of cold periods and snow since the early 2000s, but they have still warmed overall. All seasons have, summer doesn’t really stand out there. There has been a lot of data posted on this over the years that you usually seem to ignore. 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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I sure wish we still had access to the December 2021 thread, can’t find it anywhere. You better believe I would be screen shotting posts just like the ones above. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I sure wish we still had access to the December 2021 thread, can’t find it anywhere. You better believe I would be screen shotting posts just like the ones above. 

I wouldn't mind a repeat but really hoping the Arctic air makes it farther south

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9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Baes solely on the ECMWF suite?  Wow.

Nope. Based on the pattern, climo, and what the models are showing. Even you know some of the models have donut holed your area, but you selectively ignore those runs… 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Brennan said:

I am extremely optimistic about the coming week for the NW Interior. 

Optimism isn't allowed.  Haven't you gotten the message yet?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm scared the convo on here could turn ugly. As it usually does with model pullbacks.

Try to remember we're all rooting for the same thing here. Oh and it's coming.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Maybe our winters have had more in the way of cold periods and snow since the early 2000s, but they have still warmed overall. All seasons have, summer doesn’t really stand out there. There has been a lot of data posted on this over the years that you usually seem to ignore. 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

And are ignoring again...

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nope. Based on the pattern, climo, and what the models are showing. Even you know some of the models have donut holed your area, but you selectively ignore those runs… 

I just saw the blend of models indicating this is a favored area.  This area does well when the surface gradients are more northerly (as opposed to easterly) like they are going to be this time.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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My hunch is next week ends up roughly similar to early December 1992, 1994, 2016. 
 

The most extreme outlier runs like the 12z euro yesterday may have been able to compete with November 2010. That may be possible, but I don’t think it is a reasonable expectation at this point. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm scared the convo on here could turn ugly. As it usually does with model pullbacks.

Try to remember we're all rooting for the same thing here. Oh and it's coming.

I promise to keep it above board. Hopefully we can have robust discussion without any tantrums this time around. 🤞 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My hunch is next week ends up roughly similar to early December 1992, 1994, 2016. 
 

The most extreme outlier runs like the 12z euro yesterday may have been able to compete with November 2010. That may be possible, but I don’t think it is a reasonable expectation at this point. 

All of those had something better later on.

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1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And are ignoring again...

I can prove the recent winters have been colder than the early part of the century.  There were no months that averaged below 40 degrees here for the first several years of the century.  Now they happen all the time.

This is provable and I will provide the proof later.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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