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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I just saw the blend of models indicating this is a favored area.  This area does well when the surface gradients are more northerly (as opposed to easterly) like they are going to be this time.

See my post below for what I’m thinking. I’m not saying bust, sw flow and 50 degrees, though in our climate you never know. 
 

We have no idea what is actually going to happen, this is not an attack but you seem overly invested in other people being on board. My guess is because their doubts feed the doubts you are trying to suppress. Rest east, our opinions are meaningless, if this becomes historic you can say you told us so and we will be happy you were right. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I promise to keep it above board. Hopefully we can have robust discussion without any tantrums this time around. 🤞 

Thanks, it's appreciated. No worries with you though

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nope. Based on the pattern, climo, and what the models are showing. Even you know some of the models have donut holed your area, but you selectively ignore those runs… 

Climo includes average snowfall amounts, and average temps are not higher because cold snaps do happen.

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm scared the convo on here could turn ugly. As it usually does with model pullbacks.

Try to remember we're all rooting for the same thing here. Oh and it's coming.

The only model pullback has been the ECMWF.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can prove the recent winters have been colder than the early part of the century.  There were no months that averaged below 40 degrees here for the first several years of the century.  Now they happen all the time.

This is provable and I will provide the proof later.

Overall our winters have been pretty warm regionally since 2016-17. There have been some great months like February 2019, and good events, but as a whole we have not had a regionally cold winter since 16-17. Though I get it was cold at your house last winter. And our summers have been off the charts. Again regionally. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Climo includes average snowfall amounts, and average temps are not higher because cold snaps do happen.

For whatever reason those first couple days in December aren’t a great window for us. By the 6th though….

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The only model pullback has been the ECMWF.

Hard to bet against the Euro though I still think you'll do fine up there. I think there's a pretty good chance we'll see something good here too. Still 3 months of winter as well.

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

See my post below for what I’m thinking. I’m not saying bust, sw flow and 50 degrees, though in our climate you never know. 
 

We have no idea what is actually going to happen, this is not an attack but you seem overly invested in other people being on board. My guess is because their doubts feed the doubts you are trying to suppress. Rest east, our opinions are meaningless, if this becomes historic you can say you told us so and we will be happy you were right. 

I just want it to be fun on here.  Pretty hard to have fun with so much unfounded (at least at this point) negativity.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall our winters have been pretty warm regionally since 2016-17. There have been some great months like February 2019, and good events, but as a whole we have not had a regionally cold winter since 16-17. Though I get it was cold at your house last winter. And our summers have been off the charts. Again regionally. 

Up here that hasn't been the case (again provable).   Yes...the summers have been hot.

My main point on winters is the recent ones have been colder than what we opened the century with.  Not exactly a warming trend by definition.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I just want it to be fun on here.  Pretty hard to have fun with so much unfounded (at least at this point) negativity.

Fun is subjective though. Fun for me may not be fun for you. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall our winters have been pretty warm regionally since 2016-17. There have been some great months like February 2019, and good events, but as a whole we have not had a regionally cold winter since 16-17. Though I get it was cold at your house last winter. And our summers have been off the charts. Again regionally. 

Really?? 2016-17 is a random year to choose, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 were awful if I recall correctly. We have a had a good event every year since 2019, just take a look at PDO.

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Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Really?? 2016-17 is a random year to choose, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 were awful if I recall correctly. We have a had a good event every year since 2019, just take a look at PDO.

2016/2017 was the coldest winter in Portland since 1978-79 and 5th coldest on record. We had a 13" snowstorm in 8hrs that lasted for a week too

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Up here that hasn't been the case (again provable).   Yes...the summers have been hot.

My main point on winters is the recent ones have been colder than what we opened the century with.  Not exactly a warming trend by definition.

Yeah, ok if we are talking about 00-1, 01-02, and 02-03… Two really lame winters and historically awful one. I wouldn’t argue that. Then 04-05 was pathetic, and 05-06’ was that great. So yeah, things didn’t just keep getting worse and worse on a linear progression since then. But if you look at mean annual temp I bet a lot of those years were cooler regionally than the past couple. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I sure wish we still had access to the December 2021 thread, can’t find it anywhere. You better believe I would be screen shotting posts just like the ones above. 

I was looking back at the Feb 2021 thread the other day and I’ll just say there was definitely some worry leading up into that but that one managed to work out just fine for people PDX north.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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3 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Not everyone here lives in Orygun....what's your point?

This forum is extremely Washington centric. It can be grating for Oregon members. I’ve chosen to accept it, just like our warming climate. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

I was looking back at the Feb 2021 thread the other day and I’ll just say there was definitely some worry leading up into that but that one managed to work out just fine for people PDX north.

THIS!!!!  I take little stock in anything more than 48 hours away, even 36 in a lot of cases.  We could have the snowstorm of the century midweek and nobody here can say truthfully they know it won't happen.

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11 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Really?? 2016-17 is a random year to choose, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 were awful if I recall correctly. We have a had a good event every year since 2019, just take a look at PDO.

We haven't had a sub-freezing high since the Obama administration.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Regionally we have had a lot of great events in the past 5-6 years. But even a very mild winter like 2020-21 can produce a great event. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, ok if we are talking about 00-1, 01-02, and 02-03… Two really lame winters and historically awful one. I wouldn’t argue that. Then 04-05 was pathetic, and 05-06’ was that great. So yeah, things didn’t just keep getting worse and worse on a linear progression since then. But if you look at mean annual temp I bet a lot of those years were cooler regionally than the past couple. 

There’s a difference between the mean monthly temp in a winter versus single events. 20-21 had the best snowstorm I’ve ever seen and 2 sub freezing highs but the rest of that winter? Pretty trash and one event doesn’t mean the winter itself was cold. Even with the great event that month only finished -1.6 but Dec and Jan were both above average. Quite a few winters up here have great events but are mild overall. 

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41 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why everyone is disregarding all of the other models right now.  The ECMWF and EPS are far from perfect in their performance..  All others are looking really good.  Euro models are still not awful either.  The semi fail they are showing plays perfectly into the known model bias of pushing too much energy under the SE quadrant of a block.

Are we bouta get a good ol’ Jim scolding?

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We haven't had a sub-freezing high since the Obama administration.

You may not have another one until the DeSantis or Harris administration. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I was looking back at the Feb 2021 thread the other day and I’ll just say there was definitely some worry leading up into that but that one managed to work out just fine for people PDX north.

Exactly, and I believe we had lost the Euro less than week out from the February 2019 festivities and it was darker on the forum than today. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s a difference between the mean monthly temp in a winter versus single events. 20-21 had the best snowstorm I’ve ever seen and 2 sub freezing highs but the rest of that winter? Pretty trash and one event doesn’t mean the winter itself was cold. Even with the great event that month only finished -1.6 but Dec and Jan were both above average. Quite a few winters up here have great events but are mild overall. 

I agree with everything you just said. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Regionally we have had a lot of great events in the past 5-6 years. But even a very mild winter like 2020-21 can produce a great event. 

We've done well for snow that's for sure. Arctic cold? Not so much.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, MWG said:

image.png.464c492fdae0c6d1fc37e55fd015af1c.png

Yup...sad state of affairs to have this long of a return time.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Snyder sees an improvement in trough placement for what it's worth in comparing 18vs12z euro 

Would love to have him come to our forum get-together and drop some MDMA with us.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Snyder sees an improvement in trough placement for what it's worth in comparing 18vs12z euro 

I definitely value his opinion a lot. Really enjoy his videos too you can tell he’s a big fan of snow and seasonal extremes in general. He’s been seeming fairly positive about our chances overall coming up so that definitely gives me a little hope! 

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