November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Typical El Nino years.  Crappy for the most part but they have delivered some big 'uns, Al Bundy style.

20-21 was actually a La Niña year. 18-19 wasn’t though not only was it one of the best El Niño winters of all time but one of the best historically. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December 1972 2.0 next month. Another 13/-12 day at Eugene??

Yup, that one looks like it was amazing. Dec 2013 looks like it was nice too but I wasn't here for that one sadly.

Dec-Jan 2017 was the last truly Arctic airmass I had the opportunity to experience.

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

December 1972 2.0 next month. Another 13/-12 day at Eugene??

We'll gladly settle for 2013's 18/-10

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I mean…..the improvement is very clear. 

Couldn't tell based on the forum. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Couldn't tell based on the forum. 

The PNW is a big region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

20-21 was actually a La Niña year. 18-19 wasn’t though not only was it one of the best El Niño winters of all time but one of the best historically. 

I absolutely do not agree with the 2018-19 take. One of the best winters of all time cannot have a December and January that blow torch like that. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of ridiculous, but we shall see.

Calling to temps 5 to 10 degrees below average with what has been shown in the models is a terrible forecast.  15 to 25 below average is a good bet over there. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I absolutely do not agree with the 2018-19 take. One of the best winters of all time cannot have a December and January that blow torch like that. 

Not to mention a large chunk of the region not seeing much action. We did great at the end of Feb 2019 but some folks up north didn't.

[Terreboner]

I'm hoping for an epic night shift!!!  I won't be awake to see it, but good or bad, it should be a good read.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I absolutely do not agree with the 2018-19 take. One of the best winters of all time cannot have a December and January that blow torch like that. 

True…was a very good 6 week stretch which is better than most years. 

[Terreboner]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

True…was a very good 6 week stretch which is better than most years. 

Seems backloading is the new normal.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Couldn't tell based on the forum. 

U right! 

[Kolk1604]

00z NBM scaled back a little bit. It'll be interesting to watch the middle of next week and next weekend 

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This forum is extremely Washington centric. It can be grating for Oregon members. I’ve chosen to accept it, just like our warming climate. 

Let’s sing it, Andrew.  Let’s sing it together!

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think it also has to do with the fact that our men’s soccer team really hasn’t been competitive at the international level. Name one male American player? But I bet most casual sports fans can name at least 4-5 female stars. 

Kasey Keller

Clint Dempsey

Alexi Lalas

Landon Donovan

MIchael Bradley

Josie Altidore

Tim Howard

Eddie Johnson

Brian McBride

That's past players (within the past 20 years or so)

Current Squad

Cristian Roldan

Deandre Yedlin

Jordan Morris

Sean Johnson

Cristian Pulsinic

Matt Turner

 

 

 

next....

 

[Dave]

21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Not everyone here lives in Orygun....what's your point?

It's looking mainly that this event won't affect the Oregon lowlands much. He said the "NW". Oregon is in the NW.

[HuskyMaestro]

It comes with the model riding but it gets kinda hard to shuffle through the squabble to find the maps and then find the explanations for said map runs cause I couldn’t read them. I’ll just wait for the runs later tonight and pray it’s great for us all.

I wasn’t here then but the Euro in Feb 2019 pulled the same thing and Wx Twitter was pretty gloomy so I can’t imagine how it was like here lol. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I mean…..the improvement is very clear. 

FWIW... that is the control run and not the mean.   The EPS mean went the other way.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Heading for 200 pages

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

It's looking mainly that this event won't affect the Oregon lowlands much. He said the "NW". Oregon is in the NW.

He may have meant the NW interior of WA referring to whatcom and skagit counties. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... that is the control run and not the mean.

U also right! 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Heading for 200 pages

What did Dec. 2008 have?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

What did Dec. 2008 have?

Probly fewer posters. Feb 2019 had 3 separate threads. 2 of them were for the 2 massive separate events.

[Cascadia_Wx]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can prove the recent winters have been colder than the early part of the century.  There were no months that averaged below 40 degrees here for the first several years of the century.  Now they happen all the time.

This is provable and I will provide the proof later.

There have definitely been more stand alone cold months and events in recent years. No one is arguing against that. Generally they have been surrounded by face melting periods of wintertime torching though, which has continued to warm the mean.

The last cold front to back winter we had was 2016-17. Last winter was actually technically below average at PDX every month (first time since 16-17) but that wasn’t by much and it was also against the very mild 1991-2020 averages.

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

He may have meant the NW interior of WA referring to whatcom and skagit counties. 

You're most likely correct, but since this is a PNW forum it should probably have been mentioned. No worries though, I'm totally ok with the WA posters getting the goods. 

[bainbridgekid]

21 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s a difference between the mean monthly temp in a winter versus single events. 20-21 had the best snowstorm I’ve ever seen and 2 sub freezing highs but the rest of that winter? Pretty trash and one event doesn’t mean the winter itself was cold. Even with the great event that month only finished -1.6 but Dec and Jan were both above average. Quite a few winters up here have great events but are mild overall. 

It’s the one positive of living in a climate where snow and cold is the exception. One week can make an otherwise lame Winter be remembered for years to come as being great. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

You're most likely correct, but since this is a PNW forum it should probably have been mentioned. No worries though, I'm totally ok with the WA posters getting the goods. 

It’s too bad that 2008 style events are so rare when everyone gets the goods. 

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s too bad that 2008 style events are so rare when everyone gets the goods. 

I'm not sure how 2004 was in WA, but I'm pretty sure it was pretty epic. I believe it was the only occasion where chains were required on the entirety of I-5 in Oregon from the WA border to the CA border. That event and 2008 were both fantastic. 

[Deweydog]

Rain stopped.

[Chewbacca Defense]

20 minutes ago, Dave said:

It's looking mainly that this event won't affect the Oregon lowlands much. He said the "NW". Oregon is in the NW.

Oh, I thought we had all decided that the Willamette Valley was just the northern suburbs of Sacramento now. 

[SnowWillarrive]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This forum is extremely Washington centric. It can be grating for Oregon members. I’ve chosen to accept it, just like our warming climate. 

That could be because PDX has been shafted recently. Kinda dampens the enthusiasm. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

37 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I mean…..the improvement is very clear. 

...but tim said it was worse?

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Oh, I thought we had all decided that the Willamette Valley was just the northern suburbs of Sacramento now. 

I'd actually be interested in seeing how Redding's temps have changed over the last 30 years or so. We joke about Eugene becoming Redding but full stop no. They've been crazy hot there in the summer and fall lately. Routine 105+ temps.

[fubario]

4 hours ago, Deweydog said:

4cast contest???

[Chewbacca Defense]

33 minutes ago, Dave said:

It's looking mainly that this event won't affect the Oregon lowlands much. He said the "NW". Oregon is in the NW.

I guess we could start saying NWPNW?  I know that seems like a snarky answer, but not really meant to be.  It does suck that Oregon gets shafted so much.  I was so looking forward to getting more snow when I moved to the "PNW" from the south only to be sorely disappointed because I landed in the Albany/Corvallis area.

 

We did get snow a couple of years while I lived there, but it wasn't much better than what I got in Georgia.

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

...but tim said it was worse?

I said the EPS mean was worse.   Not sure why this a discussion.   Synder said ECMWF but he posted the control run.   12Z EPS on top and 18Z EPS on bottom.      You make your own call.

00Z run will probably go the other way.

[rsktkr]

Considering the really obvious percentages, shouldn't a major pullback always be the expected outcome when cold/snow starts showing up in the models?

Shouldn't the pullback be planned for every single time so when the 1 out of 50 actually hits it's a pleasant surprise?

I know that when I start seeing the juicy post nowadays I only wonder one thing.....when will it pullback?

It doesn't always bust of course and my 1 in 50 number is an exaggeration but models are almost always off and sometimes they are off by a lot when talking about anything beyond day three.

I am starting to think that constant letdowns brought on by the near constant model pullbacks are somehow enjoyable for some. Is that the case? Is that what is happening?

I am not talking specifically about the currently anticipated winter weather for next week but more in general as I see the exact same pattern of excitement/letdown, excitement/letdown year after year....it never changes.

Maybe I am misreading this and everyone really does know that most every setup is going to pullback and they are actually fine with it. The thrill is in the chase type of thing maybe?

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I guess we could start saying NWPNW?  I know that seems like a snarky answer, but not really meant to be.  It does suck that Oregon gets shafted so much.  I was so looking forward to getting more snow when I moved to the "PNW" from the south only to be sorely disappointed because I landed in the Albany/Corvallis area.

 

We did get snow a couple of years while I lived there, but it wasn't much better than what I got in Georgia.

That area did really well in 2013/14. 20-25" I'm pretty sure.

[MossMan]

Alright…You forced me to go back in time…Enjoy this blast from the past! 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z EPS was a Winter Cancel type scenario. Jeez....