Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Thu afternoon past 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, Deweydog said: Wow! Holy Toledo! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: It’s over. I might need to borrow your plow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 160w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It ultimately ends up colder than the 0z with the backwash behind the low, but not as cold as it could with some minor tweaks. That ship has sailed. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I’m in the purple! Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Colder runs ahead! Someone say runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Thu night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 The models agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Wonder if the Fri-Sun period could become an point of interest. Euro has some kind of trough digging south. Ultimately though, what killed this "big event" was a significant and unfortunate westward trend with the block. The upstream low feeding it trended much stronger, much faster, speeding the ridge's inception along the Pacific jet up by around 24 hours and displacing it 2-500 miles west. It's unfortunate but it happens. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Pretty nice run as far as I'm concerned. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Euro will be colder but that low bombing out to out north is pretty much a certainty at this point. Still could get something fun on the back end, but a regional Fraser blast is way off the table. We’re just looking for snow or something fun at this point…That is definitely still on the table. The euro did end up better than I thought but not as much as it needs to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Nov1985 said: Thu night Regionwide improvement. Even for the Redding-ites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Wonder if the Fri-Sun period could become an point of interest. Euro has some kind of trough digging south. Ultimately though, what killed this "big event" was a significant and unfortunate westward trend with the block. The upstream low feeding it trended much stronger, much faster, speeding the ridge's inception along the Pacific jet up by around 24 hours and displacing it 2-500 miles west. It's unfortunate but it happens. It hasn't happened yet. How can you speak in the past tense? 1 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Woke up late... did the timing of this storm shift a day earlier overnight??? 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: We’re just looking for snow or something fun at this point…That is definitely still on the table. The euro did end up better than I thought but not as much as it needs to. It snows and it gets really cold. Isn't that the goal? BTW...take that screw hole over Tacoma with a grain of salt. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, gusky said: Woke up late... did the timing of this storm shift a day earlier overnight??? But it's not a good run according to some! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I’m in the purple! I'm in the Pepto mixed in with a little milk. Or maybe a lot of milk, hard to interpret. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: But it's not a good run according to some! ISTG this forum is insanely weird sometimes. I could not possibly interpret this as a bad run. My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: It snows and it gets really cold. Isn't that the goal? It’s very marginal at best for most of the Seattle area in terms of snow. Itll be chilly-cold for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 The north-south gradient has actually been consistently prominent for a while now on these runs and across all models. Pretty unlikely anything significant happens at the lowest elevations in OR but could be pretty good in the foothills. Looks like Puget Sound could have a shot at something pretty solid but it is still pretty borderline. Wouldn't surprise me if this eventually ended up as a northern WA or BC event but I do think maybe OLM north is still in the game here. Difficult to ignore the trend to favor more cyclogenesis and the excessive amounts of SW flow ahead of these lows though and that's just not the recipe for low elevation snow around here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Friday zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Nov1985 said: Friday morning Weird, that progression makes no sense...........at all!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: I’m in the pink! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtep Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 The duality of man. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 The euro and gfs have been consistent in showing 6-12 inches here by Thursday morning. It's a good set up for over here. Olympia north has a really good shot at a widespread few Inches of snowfall. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Reports of a conflicting nature. 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted November 26, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: It hasn't happened yet. How can you speak in the past tense? Notice how no matter what happens with the low, we're still left under a sprawling, weak longwave trough. That occurs as all vorticity is shunted SW well in advance of the PNW, and we're left with its propagating wave, like the waves left by a stone thrown in water. We're left with the scraps of all the really exciting and important stuff that will happen to our NW. All that bombing out the trough is doing off the coast of BC? Those are the exact dynamics that were taking place over WA/OR in previous runs and funneling bitter air into the lowlands. That can only happen so far east and so far south with a healthy, well placed block. As it stands, the low that is incepting the block is bombing out *as we speak*, so any last minute detail changes will occur over the next 48 hours and they could be significant, given how difficult cutoff dynamics are to correctly simulate. But from my semi-trained eye, I don't really see how this turns super #kold. Still will get really chilly and fun with plenty of snow chances though! 14 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Saturday morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: Thu night Olympia north still in a good position. Maybe not epic cold, but we want snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said: Olympia north still in a good position. Maybe not epic cold, but we want snow. The white stuff is all that matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, mtep said: The duality of man. Never said it wasn't a nice run! 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Notice how no matter what happens with the low, we're still left under a sprawling, weak longwave trough. That occurs as all vorticity is shunted SW well in advance of the PNW, and we're left with its propagating wave, like the waves left by a stone thrown in water. We're left with the scraps of all the really exciting and important stuff that will happen to our NW. All that bombing out the trough is doing off the coast of BC? Those are the exact dynamics that were taking place over WA/OR in previous runs and funneling bitter air into the lowlands. That can only happen so far east and so far south with a healthy, well placed block. As it stands, the low that is incepting the block is bombing out *as we speak*, so any last minute detail changes will occur over the next 48 hours and they could be significant, given how difficult cutoff dynamics are to correctly simulate. But from my semi-trained eye, I don't really see how this turns super #kold. Still will get really chilly and fun with plenty of snow chances though! AFD today thought westward extension was somewhat likely, though they didn't say that was certain yet. I'm not expecting a snowmaggedon, but there seems to be plenty of room regardless for accumulations with convective showers or just a lucky placement of the trough. My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I’d be careful with those snow maps. The bulk of that snowfall occurs during 2 separate and brief overrunning events that are very marginal in terms of temps. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: The white stuff is all that matters. If the 18" (10:1) 21" (Kuchera) for my house actually gets half that, I'll be satisfied for the week. Models very flaky beyond 72 hours still, so fun to watch this play out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 If this run showed up after a long stretch of boring normal weather we would be quite excited about it. Even just the possibility of a "wintry mix" would get the crowd cheering. I'm happy to see my 8 inches of 35 degree slush. 42 here after a low of 39. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Terreboner said: ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic Is not on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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