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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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Just now, Deweydog said:

Wow!

Holy Toledo! 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It ultimately ends up colder than the 0z with the backwash behind the low, but not as cold as it could with some minor tweaks.

That ship has sailed. 

  • Downvote 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

image.png

I’m in the purple!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wonder if the Fri-Sun period could become an point of interest. Euro has some kind of trough digging south.

Ultimately though, what killed this "big event" was a significant and unfortunate westward trend with the block. The upstream low feeding it trended much stronger, much faster, speeding the ridge's inception along the Pacific jet up by around 24 hours and displacing it 2-500 miles west. It's unfortunate but it happens.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Euro will be colder but that low bombing out to out north is pretty much a certainty at this point. Still could get something fun on the back end, but a regional Fraser blast is way off the table.

We’re just looking for snow or something fun at this point…That is definitely still on the table. The euro did end up better than I thought but not as much as it needs to. 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Wonder if the Fri-Sun period could become an point of interest. Euro has some kind of trough digging south.

Ultimately though, what killed this "big event" was a significant and unfortunate westward trend with the block. The upstream low feeding it trended much stronger, much faster, speeding the ridge's inception along the Pacific jet up by around 24 hours and displacing it 2-500 miles west. It's unfortunate but it happens.

It hasn't happened yet.  How can you speak in the past tense?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Woke up late... did the timing of this storm shift a day earlier overnight???1669831200-M64GLpcWUMk.png

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re just looking for snow or something fun at this point…That is definitely still on the table. The euro did end up better than I thought but not as much as it needs to. 

It snows and it gets really cold.  Isn't that the goal?

BTW...take that screw hole over Tacoma with a grain of salt.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, gusky said:

Woke up late... did the timing of this storm shift a day earlier overnight???1669831200-M64GLpcWUMk.png

But it's not a good run according to some!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

But it's not a good run according to some!

ISTG this forum is insanely weird sometimes. I could not possibly interpret this as a bad run.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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The north-south gradient has actually been consistently prominent for a while now on these runs and across all models. Pretty unlikely anything significant happens at the lowest elevations in OR but could be pretty good in the foothills. Looks like Puget Sound could have a shot at something pretty solid but it is still pretty borderline. Wouldn't surprise me if this eventually ended up as a northern WA or BC event but I do think maybe OLM north is still in the game here. Difficult to ignore the trend to favor more cyclogenesis and the excessive amounts of SW flow ahead of these lows though and that's just not the recipe for low elevation snow around here.

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6 minutes ago, mtep said:

The duality of man. 

Screenshot_20221126-103556_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20221126-103550_Chrome.jpg

Never said it wasn't a nice run! ;)

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Notice how no matter what happens with the low, we're still left under a sprawling, weak longwave trough. That occurs as all vorticity is shunted SW well in advance of the PNW, and we're left with its propagating wave, like the waves left by a stone thrown in water. We're left with the scraps of all the really exciting and important stuff that will happen to our NW.

All that bombing out the trough is doing off the coast of BC? Those are the exact dynamics that were taking place over WA/OR in previous runs and funneling bitter air into the lowlands. That can only happen so far east and so far south with a healthy, well placed block.

As it stands, the low that is incepting the block is bombing out *as we speak*, so any last minute detail changes will occur over the next 48 hours and they could be significant, given how difficult cutoff dynamics are to correctly simulate. But from my semi-trained eye, I don't really see how this turns super #kold. Still will get really chilly and fun with plenty of snow chances though!

AFD today thought westward extension was somewhat likely, though they didn't say that was certain yet. I'm not expecting a snowmaggedon, but there seems to be plenty of room regardless for accumulations with convective showers or just a lucky placement of the trough.

My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The white stuff is all that matters.

If the 18" (10:1) 21" (Kuchera) for my house actually gets half that, I'll be satisfied for the week. Models very flaky beyond 72 hours still, so fun to watch this play out.

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If this run showed up after a long stretch of boring normal weather we would be quite excited about it.  Even just the possibility of a "wintry mix" would get the crowd cheering.  I'm happy to see my 8 inches of 35 degree slush.  42 here after a low of 39.  

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