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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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22 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

That doesn’t look terrible for central sound.

Phantom snow south of Everett. The Weatherbell maps showing P type are a joke. The surface temp at SEA is 35F+ for pretty much all that precip but that map shows it as snow. Pivotal weather map rightly shows it as a mix. 

This is looking pretty good Everett to BLI and into BC though.  

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2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Phantom snow south of Everett. The Weatherbell maps showing P type are a joke. The surface temp at SEA is 35F+ for pretty much all that precip but that map shows it as snow. Pivotal weather map rightly shows it as a mix. 

This is looking pretty good Everett to BLI and into BC though.  

Nah that’s not totally phantom snow for east king county. Im at 600 feet. Might make a huge difference. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Nah that’s not totally phantom snow for east king county. Im at 600 feet. Might make a huge difference. 

I think most people above 500’ or so feet north of Olympia do fine next week especially north of Everett. Kitsap peninsula too. Most of the I-5 corridor like Seattle, Tacoma and Olympia probably has a 50/50 shot at this point. It can still work out here but we need things to change a bit for that to happen. Given all the model chaos in the last couple days it could happen. 

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24 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Phantom snow south of Everett. The Weatherbell maps showing P type are a joke. The surface temp at SEA is 35F+ for pretty much all that precip but that map shows it as snow. Pivotal weather map rightly shows it as a mix. 

This is looking pretty good Everett to BLI and into BC though.  

It's colder just a few clicks east of I-5. Away from water and some elevation is a good bet through Tuesday night.

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5 hours ago, Brennan said:

I find it bizarre that this is going to be the coldest November of the century so far. It has seemed like anything but that up here in Bellingham. I work at BLI and start at 4am. We send a 5:45AM flight out every morning, and we've only deiced a handful of times, and I've yet to even wear gloves! I'm sure that'll change next week... But anyway, I'm shocked by the data Snowwiz.. I haven't looked at it, but taking your word for it! 

That's seems like such an interesting job. I had a 5:45 flight, first one of the day from KGEG to Oakland on Thanksgiving. It was really unique watching them de-ice the aircraft. I'd never had the pleasure of seeing it in person. 

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

So does this mean the OP is on its own with how the low tracks then? 

I keep hearing how the OP is higher resolution and that the ensembles are useless at that timeframe? Not sure how much I believe of that though. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I keep hearing how the OP is higher resolution and that the ensembles are useless at that timeframe? Not sure how much I believe of that though. 

Check back Thursday morning, we'll have 9km ensembles then. :lol:  (I bet EPS will take even longer)

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Lol biggest snowstorm potentially in the 5 years I've lived here and I'll be out of town on a business trip.  like clockwork

 


Tuesday night/Wednesday/Thursday morning: A widespread swath of 
6-12 inches of looks increasingly likely for eastern WA & the ID 
Panhandle starting Tuesday night and tapering off Thursday 
morning. Ensemble solutions continue to show a deep upper level 
trough moving SE from the SE Alaskan Coast. Deterministic + 
ensemble guidance continues to paint a wetter picture for the 
Inland NW for this system. One big question for the Spokane metro 
is the northern extent of the warm nose. Latest deterministic 
ECMWF seems far too warm with 850 mb temps reaching 0C as far 
north as southern Spokane County. Tri- Cities is a great example 
of how warm the ECMWF control run is in comparison to its ensemble
(00Z Thu ECMWF control 850 mb temp = 2C, ECMWF ensemble mean = -1C,
CMC mean = -2C, GEFS mean = -3C). A reasonable explanation for 
this is the deterministic ECMWF appears to rush a surface low 
through southern BC Wednesday while the majority of guidance has a
slow moving surface low off Vancouver Island. That is one 
potential solution for lower snow totals in the Basin, Palouse, 
Spokane areas. Nonetheless, modest ascent in a deep saturated 
dendritic layer will yield many hours of moderate snowfall rates 
for Eastern WA and N ID starting Tuesday night. Snow ratios for 
this event will likely be between 12-16:1 as snow levels start at 
the surface Tuesday night slowly increasing up to 1000-1500 feet 
Wednesday afternoon and then sinking down to surface Wednesday 
night.

National Blend of Models 72 hour snow probabilities through 4 PM Friday 
(4+",6+",8+",12+"): 

Spokane: 70%, 62%, 54%, 31%
Pullman/Moscow: 62%, 59%, 25%, 9%
Coeur D'Alene: 76%, 69%, 69%, 46%
Colville: 71%, 69%, 69%, 22%
Wenatchee: 59%, 25%, 16%, 8%
Omak: 69%, 52%, 31%, 8%
Moses Lake: 35%, 15%, 8%, 0%
Ephrata: 46%, 16%, 8%, 0%
Sandpoint: 77%, 74%, 70%, 50%
Methow Valley: 68%, 49%, 39%, 31%

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I keep hearing how the OP is higher resolution and that the ensembles are useless at that timeframe? Not sure how much I believe of that though. 

I believe it. The lower resolution leads to “cold bleed” down at lower elevations. Kinda similar to “terrain bleed” on snow maps. I remember during December 2021 at a certain point we had this convo too…at a certain point you get more accurate information from the operational models. Doesn’t mean the operational can’t trend towards the ensembles potentially though lots of unknowns right now. 

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Doesn't look like it will be too warm to snow from Sunday night until the foreseeable future above 2000' based on today's runs.

Not bad for late November/early December.  I'm tired of the extreme drought levels over here and hoping that can be put to bed by April.

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47 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Nah that’s not totally phantom snow for east king county. Im at 600 feet. Might make a huge difference. 

Well of course, if you have some elevation it will be a different story. I was talking about the lowest elevation areas, typically right along the I-5 corridor. 

500-1000ft is much snowier than 100-250ft in our climate. 

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Just now, Perturbed Member said:

Well of course, if you have some elevation it will be a different story. I was talking about the lowest elevation areas, typically right along the I-5 corridor. 

500-1000ft is much snowier than 100-250ft in our climate. 

This event feels like it might have some moments where it’s snowing up at my house at 300’ and raining just a few blocks down the hill at sea level. It’s probably gonna be that close at times. Our best shot right now looks like an overrunning event Tuesday night…but it’s starting to also seem like there could be potential later in the week. 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This event feels like it might have some moments where it’s snowing up at my house at 300’ and raining just a few blocks down the hill at sea level. It’s probably gonna be that close at times. Our best shot right now looks like an overrunning event Tuesday night…but it’s starting to also seem like there could be potential later in the week. 

Agree, I think the late week stuff is still very much on the table. Need a low track to produce some decent offshore flow at the surface and it'll be cold enough. 

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This event feels like it might have some moments where it’s snowing up at my house at 300’ and raining just a few blocks down the hill at sea level. It’s probably gonna be that close at times. Our best shot right now looks like an overrunning event Tuesday night…but it’s starting to also seem like there could be potential later in the week. 

I remember distinctly a few years ago driving down I-5 in Fife seeing snow on the hills around Tacoma and nothing on the valley floor. Kind of cool. 

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Looks like there could be a poor man’s version of the westerly blow through the strait early tomorrow morning along with some gusty winds everywhere else especially the NW interior.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I remember distinctly a few years ago driving down I-5 in Fife seeing snow on the hills around Tacoma and nothing on the valley floor. Kind of cool. 

Perfectly sums up living here. It blows. Though seeing the snowy hills around my area while getting just cold rain only motivates me to bust my a** studying/working so I can move somewhere more snowier and picturesque.

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𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴,

𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯.

𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱.

Reddit: HotlineMaestro

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wx .com's blend of models trended warmer since last night for my block, but they just back tracked a bit from 1 inch to "3 to 5 inches for Tue night. They also added back "1 to 3" for Friday night. That's usually a good sign even though I hate using their products. 😅

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14 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I remember distinctly a few years ago driving down I-5 in Fife seeing snow on the hills around Tacoma and nothing on the valley floor. Kind of cool. 

Yep it happens quite a bit actually. Early November 2017 we had 1/2” of snow up here and less than a half mile away no accumulation. It makes a difference for sure but even so we’re not the best spot for snow. 

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55 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

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17027816-5EEF-4E8B-92D7-6DEB781112B1.png

AD1387DF-C6F4-4F77-B016-B894526236AE.png

I am guessing at least some of the differences in the placment of the low on the ensemble frame could be due to timing differences.  Two different ensembles might have the exact same track, but if one is faster than the other, they will show up at different places at that hour, making them seem as if they are on a totally different track.  

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3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Everyone think eastward shift. Picture the 00z GFS and EURO model as it's coming out. Picture the trough shifted to the east 150-200 miles. Believe it to be true. Ya gotta believe or it won't happen. We have a 7.9% chance of this! C'MON!!!!

Lmao ok Russell Wilson 

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6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Everyone think eastward shift. Picture the 00z GFS and EURO model as it's coming out. Picture the trough shifted to the east 150-200 miles. Believe it to be true. Ya gotta believe or it won't happen. We have a 7.9% chance of this! C'MON!!!!

6FC593C5-62EA-467E-BCC1-00BF1A481E7F.gif.0e42423e5940fe00814a226b0d26624f.gif

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