MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: With the ECMWF showing 925 temps around +3C to +4C on Wednesday... it does not seem to be as close as the GFS makes it appear. I need to see this change significantly to believe Wednesday will be snowy. This post makes it sound like the euro is 100% correct. Stop. Edited November 27, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: You also can't base a forecast off one model, In this case the euro. That appears to be what you are doing. It just has a much better handle on 925 temps overall. And we are within 5 days. If the ECMWF was showing 925 temp of -2C on Wednesday and the GFS was showing +4C... I would be all in on snow based on one model. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Hour 294 and hour 12 look oddly similar from a 500mb level (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Downright impressive cold pool on the 00z GFS. Only 10 days out LOL 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: It just has a much better handle on 925 temps overall. And we are within 5 days. If the ECMWF was showing 925 temp of -2C on Wednesday and the GFS was showing +4C... I would be all in on snow based on one model. I agree that Wednesday is far from a lock. A lot riding on that day for how enjoyable this will be. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just for fun. Day 12.5 lol 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: Judah screwing with us He couldn’t take the model trends anymore and filled his “machine learning” model with weenies and now this is happening. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, DeepFriedEgg said: Downright impressive cold pool on the 00z GFS. Only 10 days out LOL The EPS has been all over it too though. Strongly advertising sustained cold offshore flow. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: I agree that Wednesday is far from a lock. A lot riding on that day for how enjoyable this will be. I had the odds at 50% for snow here earlier but IMO it’s more like 30% or less now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: This post makes it sound like the euro I 100% correct. Stop. No... the 500 mb pattern could change. The ECMWF has no problem caving at that level. But if the 500mb pattern is stable then I look to the ECMWF for details. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Just for fun. Day 12.5 lol Winter for the ages if this continues the next three months! 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Easy to forget we are still in late Nov. plenty of cold season left. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Mate it's okay if people vent their frustrations about a very decent prospect going to waste. It's not like I can just spark up a detailed conversation with my roommate about why I'm disappointed. This is the only place where I can throw around jargon and weather terms and have people understand their meaning and context. It's the perfect place to rant and be a weenie. Don't confuse venting with being ungrateful about a genuinely chilly regime amidst a tragically warming climate... I am also looking forward to the cooler weather. As I type I'm looking out the window watching the cold rain fall and it's very soothing. Mate, it’s also okay if I make a relatively harmless post simultaneously poking fun at this/pointing out some of the positive potentials of the pattern. 2 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Second cold chance is apparent in EPS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 New GFS. If anything this will be more of a convergence zone thing 1 2 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Just for fun. Day 12.5 lol I like it. That SE Ridge can really help steer things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I agree that Wednesday is far from a lock. A lot riding on that day for how enjoyable this will be. For the record... I would love a foot of snow here on Wednesday. It would probably stick around for a long time and make it very Christmassy. I am just quite skeptical at this point even for my area. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 GFS is teasing us!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Looks plausible at the moment. EPS and GFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: New GFS. If anything this will be more of a convergence zone thing Are you sure the bullseye is caused by convergence zone though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Looks plausible at the moment. EPS and GFS 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Cascadia_Wx Posted November 27, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 One thing I am realizing. Puget Sounders are bemoaning the strengthening of that Wednesday low mainly because it messes up snow chances that particular day or thereabouts. The low bombing doesn’t seem to affect or abort the overall cold pattern beyond though. Sometimes when arctic troughs dig too far offshore it can turn a potentially cold pattern into long term warm SW flow. Doesn’t look to be in the cards for this one, which is a win. 15 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's in the envelope of possibility. Trust the Canadian eh! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Lock it in? I can't wait to see the crazy 384-hour snow maps for this run. 1 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 37 minutes until the EURO to punches us in the d*Cks ruining our fun 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Are you sure the bullseye is caused by convergence zone though? No, but it's in the c-zone spot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: 37 minutes until the EURO to punches us in the d*Cks ruining our fun Like last night... then what happened? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 CFS looking good too. December to Remember! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 GEFS Day 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Raining and windy. Temp up to 42. 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Raining and windy. Temp up to 42. I can hear the wind here from inside the house. 2 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 one of these lows dropping down from the north is going to payoff in the next two weeks 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 GEFS still all in on a region wide event. And this is within 10 days 4 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: GEFS still all in on a region wide event. And this is within 10 days I think snow for western Washington is still a pretty good bet for Tuesday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Lock it in? I can't wait to see the crazy 384-hour snow maps for this run. For the love of God make this happen 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Winds are really roaring here in north seattle tonight. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 UW GFS is way colder than EURO for Tuesday evening. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 System sweeping into the area quickly. Nice looking. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said: One thing I am realizing. Puget Sounders are bemoaning the strengthening of that Wednesday low mainly because it messes up snow chances that particular day or thereabouts. The low bombing doesn’t seem to affect or abort the overall cold pattern beyond though. Sometimes when arctic troughs dig too far offshore it can turn a potentially cold pattern into long term warm SW flow. Doesn’t look to be in the cards for this one, which is a win. This is a good take. Chances for accumulating snow at PDX and points south seem about the same if not higher now. I do not see lowland places in the Puget Sound getting snow with the Wednesday system. Maybe Hood Canal. But given the strength and low placement there will be a warm nose. There may be some chances in the post frontal airmass, especially with convergence zones I would think. 6 1 1 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 I wonder if we'll go a while without touching 40F. 3 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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