November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I know EPS snowfall maps aren't worth much, but I'll post it anyway. 

[Nov1985]

Meanwhile, a bit of amplification in the wind forecast for the next few hours. 50s MPH around Everett. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

Meanwhile, a bit of amplification in the wind forecast for the next few hours. 50s MPH around Everett. 

Euro massively overestimates near-sfc winds. Still though, it's pretty gusty outside right now. Feels wonderful.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Euro massively overestimates near-sfc winds. Still though, it's pretty gusty outside right now. Feels wonderful.

Yet another strong fall front. This fall they have all been very dynamic and feature a sharp back edge.

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Euro massively overestimates near-sfc winds. Still though, it's pretty gusty outside right now. Feels wonderful.

It's been better in that regard this year. It used to be hilarious. 

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Yet another strong fall front. This fall they have all been very dynamic and feature a sharp back edge.

That they have. Hence the impeccable sunsets!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

It's been better in that regard this year. It used to be hilarious. 

Oh was it worse??! No way! That's hilarious. It's bad enough as it is 

[Gradient Keeper]

18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Dude I was thinking the same thing. Plenty of potential for this happening now

EPS Day 9

That is quite close to producing a major backdoor blast into northeast Washington/Columbia basin.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yep. PDX metro temps fall to 33-34 4 PM - 10 PM Thursday. 32 by 4 AM Friday. Snow!

Just in time to get off work

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift in 1 hour 22 minutes

Watching for any possible changes Day 2-4 with the arctic trough and then Day 5+ looking for jet suppression similar to the 00z run last night.

Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!!

[Kolk1604]

Crazy how it takes 1 run to change the vibe. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Is there any chance no matter how remote of an eastward shift? We are within 72-84 hours of the possibly impossible, but not impossibly possible happening.

[Hawksfan2008]

No single model is a ride or die at this point. They are all a mess. Enjoy the ride! 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Is there any chance no matter how remote of an eastward shift? We are within 72-84 hours of the possibly impossible, but not impossibly possible happening.

Seen it happen before.  Models start getting better data input starting soon as the pattern takes shape up stream over Alaska.  Pretty limited surface data out over the North Pacific and arctic 

[snow_wizard]

Just so we're all on the same page of what the best possible setup is.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Crazy how it takes 1 run to change the vibe. 

All minus as far as the eye can see.  NAO is tanked as well.

[Perturbed Member]

Even the NAVGEM shows that anafront and low coming out of the south. Hopefully tomorrow's runs continue to show this feature. 

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Is there any chance no matter how remote of an eastward shift? We are within 72-84 hours of the possibly impossible, but not impossibly possible happening.

The thing is, it wouldn't take much to make a huge difference.

[Slushy Inch]

Second cold chance obvious in a view of the members. Mean never above 40 other than Wednesday. 

[NWbyNW]

Once again, a fairly impressive rain-shadow from about Everett to Tacoma thanks to the Olympics.   Snow is dumping it's load on the Olympics and Cascade's.  

[snow_wizard]

25 members on the EPS showed SEA having at least one low below 25 at some point during week 2 with a good handful of those going below 20.

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Once again, a fairly impressive rain-shadow from about Everett to Tacoma thanks to the Olympics.   Snow is dumping it's load on the Olympics and Cascade's.  

Just under 3” on the month here. We average 9”. 

[Nov1985]

A large tree just came down somewhere close but not our yard. Woke up the kid.

I enjoy how the hourly resolution of HRRR reveals passing fronts so well. Here's Sunday night's front.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

A large tree just came down somewhere close but not our yard. Woke up the kid.

I enjoy how the hourly resolution of HRRR reveals passing fronts so well. Here's Sunday night's front.

Holy pancakes! Glad it wasn't any closer. Oh look at the Fraser outflow quickly developing! Hmmm!!!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Gradient Keeper]

Night Shift
Day 1 (Past 4 runs)

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 (Past 4 runs) Well no luck with any changes or favorable trends with the arctic trough. Looks a notch further west and cyclogenesis occurring sooner unfortunately.

[Meatyorologist]

I don't think the relationship between the bombing low upstream of the block and the placement of the block is quite exactly linear. Despite the run appearing worse initially, the low is actually further southeast than on the 00z GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Now the trough edged a few notches to the east. Hmmm.... Probably negligible differences overall.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I don't think the relationship between the bombing low upstream of the block and the placement of the block is quite exactly linear. Despite the run appearing worse initially, the low is actually further southeast than on the 00z GFS.

Exactly right.

[Meatyorologist]

The differences between the 06z and 00z are surmounting. By day 3.5 it looks like a substantial correction.

[Meatyorologist]

Heavy eyes on the late week trough. Looks like a much, much better setup for it. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Trough is noticeably further east and the block also has been nudged east. Hmmm...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) Block another notch further east and system south of the Aleutians is really nudging the block. Trough a notch east and more consolidated. Southeast ridge a few notches east too.

 

[Meatyorologist]

Okay...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Is the GFS just messing with us, one last middle finger? or.... Because that's real noticeable.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Anafront also sets up furher east if you can even call it that anymore

[Requiem]

Man I loved that anafront but in the greater scheme of things this is far better

[snow_wizard]

This could be the little move east we have been hoping for.