November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Gummy said:

Precip rates are pretty high, I assume this is a case of the models banking on convergence and wet bulb cooling to hit those numbers?  That always has a high bust potential.  The past few years I recall both the Euro and GFS showing high snow amounts 48 hours out and getting just cold rain on at least one occasion.

 Very high bust. Seattle could get nothing or 6 plus inches.

[Cold Snap]

12z Euro is showing the switchover to rain being a few hours later as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

12z Euro is showing the switchover to rain being a few hours later as well.

The switchover is the hardest part to forecast.  Especially with all the micro climates. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Cold Snap]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The switchover is the hardest part to forecast.  Especially with all the micro climates. 

Yeah definitely. I feel like the models almost always scour out the cold air too fast in these situations.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much less robust with the anafront situation on Thursday compared to its 00Z run.     Bu that feature could easily come back on future runs... the upper level pattern is still favorable for that type of situation.  

[RentonHill]

South Oregon special 

[Nov1985]

12 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

A vision of what our weather could be like if we were in the plains and had no mountains. Pacific Ocean is bot as important as the damming of all that cold air it would seem.

Someday somewhere someone will assemble the funds and skilled resources necessary to build an accurate and reliable computer model to fill in that missing 4 to 10 day forecast accuracy gap. 

We are very far from consistent accuracy today, but the industry that profits and relies on current tech needs everyone to think it's as good as it can be in order to appear reliable (mostly for agriculture). This is a common problem actually that inhibits investment in innovation across many archaic and complex industries. 

[TacomaWx]

Seems like we could actually get a bit of snow still late before the switchover even here. Would be brief but it’s a win if it happens. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’m back onboard. 

[TT-SEA]

Even farther south... the anafront still looks good for the Oregon Cascades.

 

[TacomaWx]

Even here at my house the first few hours the DPs are in the mid to upper 20s at the onset. 850mb and 925mb temps are good enough to support snowfall as well with the temps at 34. That bodes well for anyone from Tacoma north. 

[Deweydog]

January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even farther south... the anafront still looks good for the Oregon Cascades.

 

About 6-8” here. I’d take it. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

January.

MLK? 

[Weiner Warrior]

Euro looking good Seattle North. Game on. Wiping away the tears now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Actually the Euro is showing 17” here from hour 84-132. On pivotal with the 10:1, so probably wouldn’t really be that much… But it’s possible, we had 21” with the anafront in March 2012.

[MossMan]

Current temp is 39. DP 36.

Up to 9 hours without power so far. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is extremely wet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro also WAY warmer than the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro is extremely wet. 

Really wet for western Oregon over the next week...

[thickhog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro is extremely wet. 

Why are you posting your search history

[SnowPlz]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro is extremely wet. 

 

[The Blob]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think I counted that happening to me 4 times last week with my daughter. The best one was I was sitting across from her trying to get her to drink. She took a couple sips and then just started saying “dad, dad.” I asked her what was wrong and leaned forward, and it was too late!

I learned very early on to back up when they start the repeating. My sister would do that to my mom every time, I take no chances with my own kids

[TacomaWx]

The potential later in the run is definitely still there. Good block with some cold air in BC and a trough coming down. 

[AlTahoe]

A good January for once? 

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-snowfall-predictions-final-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-cold-start-fa/

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

The potential later in the run is definitely still there. Good block with some cold air in BC and a trough coming down. 

Yeah that doesn’t look very warm to me. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah that doesn’t look very warm to me. 

Definitely too early to get excited about it yet…but the door is still open for a good outcome next week. 

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, thickhog said:

Why are you posting your search history

ANALogs Gone Wild

[Weiner Warrior]

60 hours

[RentonHill]

[MossMan]

Is tonight/tomorrow morning out the window? Nobody is talking about that anymore. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah that doesn’t look very warm to me. 

I didn’t say warm, I said warmer than GFS. Lol

[RentonHill]

[Deweydog]

That’s a big ol’ NAO thingy!

[Phil]

 

[Phil]

Just now, Deweydog said:

That’s a big ol’ NAO thingy!

Dec -NAO during La Niña is actually a good omen for winter and for attenuation of the SW US drought.

Haven’t seen it since Dec 2010.

[Snownerd3000]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

MLK? 

Im heads to suncadia that weekend. I'd love to get buried 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

Is tonight/tomorrow morning out the window? Nobody is talking about that anymore. 

We were just chatting about it on our community Facebook page. You still look good for accumulations. Down here I’d go with 1-2” tomorrow and hedge towards the low side. Not a super exciting set up, at least compared to earlier in the month. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

Is -NAO good or bad for us?