November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[smerfylicious]

A few more seconds of hail and a pic as well. Probably the most impressive bout of hail I've gone through in years. 

 

 

[Nov1985]

28 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Have you seen the last 2 runs?  The temps are STILL ridiculous.

It all comes down to the ECMWF 925s. Everything else looks plausible for borderline heavy wet stuff, especially around the King Snohomish county line. Only the ECMWF 925s make that hard to believe for the timeframe of interest. The 850 can support if precip is heavy enough and 925s below freezing.

A little away from the water makes a difference too. Once in the 90s I got stuck for 3.5 hours at the Lynwood I-5 405 interchange from heavy wet stuff. It was 41° when the snow started and dumped 4 inches in 90 minutes or so. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

ICON is downright depressing...

[Nov1985]

21 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Uncle sobered up and removed the crazy arctic outbreak around days 8-10. 

It seems like we are getting close to a model consensus of no arctic outbreak from this pattern. 

But mid to upper 30s forever! Thus a chance for something fun to enter the forecast with 2 or 3 days notice next couple weeks.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

But mid to upper 30s forever! Thus a chance for something fun to enter the forecast with 2 or 3 days notice next couple weeks.

The 8 to 12 day period is totally up in the air right now.  At this point it appears to be anywhere from cold to very cold.  For that matter we really don't even know how Wednesday will play out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Still looking good for snow IMBY Tuesday night into Wednesday. Euro says sloppy wet snow changing to rain, GooFuS says hard freeze, all snow, and lots of it. Would like for GooFuS to be right but my money is for a more Euro-like solution. Would not be surprised if the Euro is underdoing the snow here and we get more than the 4" or so it calls for, say up to 6". More in the hills and lots more in the mountains.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The 8 to 12 day period totally up in the air right now.  At this point it appears to be anywhere from cold to very cold.  For that matter we really don't even know how Wednesday will play out.

Realistically, that’s how it always is with clown range.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

ICON is downright depressing...

Probably won't happen that way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems a little aggressive but we shall see… 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Still looking good for snow IMBY Tuesday night into Wednesday. Euro says sloppy wet snow changing to rain, GooFuS says hard freeze, all snow, and lots of it. Would like for GooFuS to be right but my money is for a more Euro-like solution. Would not be surprised if the Euro is underdoing the snow here and we get more than the 4" or so it calls for, say up to 6". More in the hills and lots more in the mountains.

The ECMWF probably will come around a little bit at least.  The GFS and ECMWF often move toward each other when they disagree like this.

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF probably will come around a little bit at least.  The GFS and ECMWF often move toward each other when they disagree like this.

I'm just gonna save time and watch the ECMWF 925 MB temps in each run between now and 18Z Tue. Make or break content there.  Well, and I guess precip intensity too. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF probably will come around a little bit at least.  The GFS and ECMWF often move toward each other when they disagree like this.

That’s what I’m thinking, and why I’m padding the Euro’s snow estimates in the GFS’s direction.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like November will come in just a touch warmer than 2000 at SLE. Easily the coldest since then though, actually colder than any of the past 5 Januaries there and colder than 7 of the last 8

Januaries. That’s pretty wild. All time they will likely come in at 12th coldest since 1894. If they over perform the next couple days they could end up at #10.

Edited November 27, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[gusky]

Just got a chance to look at models again. EPS and ECMWF have been gradually improving over the past day, 12z continues that trend!

[gusky]

And look at that improvement on WRF. WOW!

 

This still seems like a very heavy exaggeration of snow totals though.

[Phishy Wx]

La Nina!

 

 

[Randyc321]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

And look at that improvement on WRF. WOW!

 

This still seems like a very heavy exaggeration of snow totals though.

Go look at the 850s during that frame.  Pretty warm.

The snow loop looks great, the 850 temp loop not so much.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

31 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

ICON is downright depressing...

Not if you live in Portland and like rain.

[The Cats Meow]

I raked extra leaves and cut the grass really short.

Too bad we probably won't get anything with this first round of action.

[gusky]

4 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Go look at the 850s during that frame.  Pretty warm.

The snow loop looks great, the 850 temp loop not so much.

Yeah that's why I said it's very exaggerated... ~-6 is technically cold enough for snow but not for a widespread 4-6 inches of snow

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS after Day 5 has a lot of backdoor low level cold Gorge/Columbia Basin. If there is any gusty or strong east wind with the Gorge/Columbia Basin in the freezer it could be even colder at PDX. I hope so. This works for me!

 

[smerfylicious]

6 minutes ago, gusky said:

Yeah that's why I said it's very exaggerated... ~-6 is technically cold enough for snow but not for a widespread 4-6 inches of snow

Looks like I'll be ~-7. Mayhaps I can be lucky. 

[gusky]

This is the type of output you'd expect from 300hr GFS... not 70hr GFS 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, gusky said:

This is the type of output you'd expect from 300hr GFS... not 70hr GFS 

Only means one thing. Its gonna happen. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

This is the type of output you'd expect from 300hr GFS... not 70hr GFS 

Not enough for my location. Dump it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not gonna lie that was a pretty sober uncle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z EPS after Day 5 has a lot of backdoor low level cold Gorge/Columbia Basin. If there is any gusty or strong east wind with the Gorge/Columbia Basin in the freezer it could be even colder at PDX. I hope so. This works for me!

 

Mark Nelsen says no east wind coming up over the next week. 

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Not enough for my location. Dump it. 

Looks the same as at my place.  8" or more.  It's 80% phantom though.

edit: Whoops, after a close look I guess you are in the blue.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Wow big missed opportunity for lowlands south of Everett if cold pool doesn't materialize. Oh well. Maybe something later in the month closer to X-mas...

[DeepFriedEgg]

Only chance for PDX is anafront (long shot) or cold pool (which Mark Nelsen says will not occur in the next week)

[WeatherGeek2022]

36 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

La Nina!

 

 

where dis?

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Only chance for PDX is anafront (long shot) or cold pool (which Mark Nelsen says will not occur in the next week)

Looks like Mark has given up on any snow between PDX and Eugene. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark says he’s hoping for a slushy inch at 1000’.

[jakerepp]

26 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

where dis?

Eastern WA

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

25 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Looks like Mark has given up on any snow between PDX and Eugene. 

Mark doesn’t miss. His word means more to me than any meteorologist (local or otherwise), the NWS, or anybody else. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

34 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Wow big missed opportunity for lowlands south of Everett if cold pool doesn't materialize. Oh well. Maybe something later in the month closer to X-mas...

I’ll try harder next time coach 

[Phishy Wx]

38 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

where dis?

Spokane vicinity

[Timmy]

What ever happened to phil

[Gradient Keeper]

Watching IR loops and 18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis to see how the pattern is progressing with the ridge/high pressure cells. Hoping that frontal band can hold the ridge at ~160 W. Doubtful. We need a system to plow north into the Bering Sea. Also doubtful.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Waiting for snow. Down to 36.