November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Cloud]

It’s gonna snow….. In the mountains. 

[lowlandsnow]

New article from Cliff Mass

[Hawksfan2008]

18z EURO trends north…

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

18z EURO trends north…

How deep does the low bomb to offshore?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How deep does the low bomb to offshore?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

Non-event for many. Everett north might do okay.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How deep does the low bomb to offshore?

Lowest is 979

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Non-event for many. Everett north might do okay.

More of a Sumas thing at this point. Temps look too marginal where a wet fart will bring the whole atmosphere solidly above freezing. Just counting the runs until we have a reset, maybe we can get a NYE special.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, administrator said:

More of a Sumas thing at this point. Temps look too marginal where a wet fart will bring the whole atmosphere solidly above freezing. Just counting the runs until we have a reset, maybe we can get a NYE special.

Yeah too much dumb mild southwesterly flow with the low bombing so far offshore. Warm air advection is the true grinch to weather geeks.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, administrator said:

More of a Sumas thing at this point. Temps look too marginal where a wet fart will bring the whole atmosphere solidly above freezing. Just counting the runs until we have a reset, maybe we can get a NYE special.

This sounds like a pretty reasonable take.

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, administrator said:

More of a Sumas thing at this point. Temps look too marginal where a cow fart will end all snow forever. Just counting the runs until we have a Great Reset, maybe we can get NYC dammed up in time.

 

[Kolk1604]

12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How deep does the low bomb to offshore?

My map is better... there's more lows on it! 

[Guest administrator]

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, administrator said:

"sad weenie typing on computer"?

[MossMan]

Currently 37.9. 
35.8 DP 

.16” on the day (.03” of melted ice pellets) 

8.03” for the month. 
47.66” for the year. 
 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

24 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s gonna snow….. In the mountains. 

And Eastern Washington and Idaho. Lots of snow. Guessing there will be a Winter Storm Watches/Warnings all over our region

We are benefitting from heavy snow over Stevens Pass making its way down to Leavenworth.  Moderate to heavy snow now

 

[Requiem]

Been a while since we've had a classic winter storm here with heavy snow and strong offshore flow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looks like the PNA will turn positive soon or a very weak -pna 

[SouthHillFrosty]

18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

My map is better... there's more lows on it! 

How did u find this again?

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Looks like the PNA will turn positive soon or a very weak -pna 

Good, hopefully we can head into split flow hell soon. 
Go 49’ers. 

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Good, hopefully we can head into split flow hell soon. 
Go 49’ers. 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

The Seahawks defense and this uncontrollable cough that I am so done with has apparently put me in a sour mood. At least we got power back after 14 hours. 

[Kolk1604]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How did u find this again?

West Region and the under "pressure-surface" select MSLP + Member low locations 

[MossMan]

Here is the non European PNA forecast. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

If we’re doing wunderground forecast porn again:

[NWbyNW]

Throughout much of the morning and into the early afternoon, we kept getting very heavy hail storms!  It was cool!

By early afternoon, everything on the ground, roofs, and more were white.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Throughout much of the morning and into the early afternoon, we kept getting very heavy hail storms!  It was cool!

By early afternoon, everything on the ground, roofs, and more were white.

Great pics!    

As usual of course.  

[Dave]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If we’re doing wunderground forecast porn again:

Thank you for not using Celsius. I hate seeing it used around the PNW because the difference between 0 and 2 is significant as to whether snow will accumulate or not. Fahrenheit is superior here.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[Blizzard777]

This shot took a little work to get. CZ in background firing off (I’m somewhere on Whidbey).

[Nov1985]

1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

18z EURO trends north…

Just noticed 18Z ECMWF 925 mb temps warmed to just above freezing in much of lowland Snohomish county. The previous 2 runs had barely moved the line a bit further south of the county line for Tue evening. That line and the precip rate will be fun to watch Tue night because this marginal thread-the-needle crap usually surprises somewhere. 18Z ECMWF "snow depth" still thinks 1 to 3 inches from north Seattle Tue night but it seems to add mixed precip to that total. The precip stops pretty quickly after turning to rain Wednesday in this zone.

[joelgombiner]

Lots of lowland locations now in the mid to upper 30's. 37 at Quillayute and 34 at Bremerton. 

[joelgombiner]

The stuff moving in offshore looks dynamic

[T-Town]

Nice evening. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, administrator said:

More of a Sumas thing at this point. Temps look too marginal where a wet fart will bring the whole atmosphere solidly above freezing. Just counting the runs until we have a reset, maybe we can get a NYE special.

Always gotta be on the lookout for a sneaky wet fart when you’ve got the runs. 

[TacomaWx]

39 here currently…radar returns are increasing overall but for now most of central and southern Puget sound is being shadowed. There has been some precip on the models but I’ve got no expectations for tonight Expecting to see some snow pics from a few different people tonight (Randy most likely). 

[joelgombiner]

Nice line about to move through Whidbey Island. 

[Deweydog]

Take it Russ!

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

39 here currently…radar returns are increasing overall but for now most of central and southern Puget sound is being shadowed. There has been some precip on the models but I’ve got no expectations for tonight Expecting to see some snow pics from a few different people tonight (Randy most likely). 

I’m sure Mossman will have 6 inches by the morning. Than his power will go out

[Winterdog]

Where do apps get their data?  A direct drop from the GFS, the coldest model, doesn't show anything close to what my Davis app shows.  It just updated to 22 deg tonight and tomorrow night and low to mid-thirties for highs until Sunday where it shows a high of 30 and a low of 13 with snow each day until Friday.  I don't expect an answer but I always figured they just had an algorithm that translated the model of choice or maybe a blend of a couple models.  The generated forecasts are often ridiculous.