November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 6:

4 Run Trend:

[thickhog]

It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix.

[LowerGarfield]

42 minutes ago, administrator said:

Let the hate flow through you.

Normal people hate snow. Normal people want a mild and uneventful winter. Most of America hates the Seahawks, the most overrated team in the NFL and it is unfair to the rest of the league that players have to travel to a stadium where the weather is bad to play a team that is bad. Most of America wants the Seahawks to relocate to a real American state, like Texas or Florida.

Feels good to spew. Go 49ers!

My wife hates the Seahawks though she's from Western WA and she hates snow too.

Meanwhile I'm so envious of Spokane and north for the midweek. It was all people talked about at our hotel near KGEG in Spokane. I'm not sure if it's the post trip /Sunday blues, or the warm nose on W/R for my location that makes me a bit bummed. I suppose I should be thankful I don't live in the L-C valley since a lot has to go right for them to get snow. I just want to vent. I expect Spokane to get far more than my location, same with Pullman but when I'm due for 1 inch and almost everyone else in the CWA- other than Lewiston - might be looking at 3-4 inches it is hard to not get jealous.

That said, I know TWL will be jealous of me setting my snowboard out in a few minutes in the hope of overnight snow so I don't want to be too whiney. I can't remember if it was last winter or the winter before where we had some good snowstorms that missed anywhere north of WSU/Pullman. So I'm trying to be optimistic and not take what we have for granted. It's like a kid who gets a present for the holidays but gets a few less than their classmates.

[jakerepp]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Starting to snow. Very wet and sloppy, temp down to 35.2 from 37.2 in the last 5 minutes. 

I'm at a higher elevation than you but no snow here.

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, thickhog said:

It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix.

bout time we got a TWL burner account from our hood

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, thickhog said:

It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix.

Worth noting that this is not accurate.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My wife hates the Seahawks though she's from Western WA and she hates snow too.

Meanwhile I'm so envious of Spokane and north for the midweek. It was all people talked about at our hotel near KGEG in Spokane. I'm not sure if it's the post trip /Sunday blues, or the warm nose on W/R for my location that makes me a bit bummed. I suppose I should be thankful I don't live in the L-C valley since a lot has to go right for them to get snow. I just want to vent. I expect Spokane to get far more than my location, same with Pullman but when I'm due for 1 inch and almost everyone else in the CWA- other than Lewiston - might be looking at 3-4 inches it is hard to not get jealous.

That said, I know TWL will be jealous of me setting my snowboard out in a few minutes in the hope of overnight snow so I don't want to be too whiney. I can't remember if it was last winter or the winter before where we had some good snowstorms that missed anywhere north of WSU/Pullman. So I'm trying to be optimistic and not take what we have for granted. It's like a kid who gets a present for the holidays but gets a few less than their classmates.

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It actually passed to our south. Favorable track, but the air mass we had to work with just wasn’t quite cold enough. Seems that factor might be pretty similar. Given the date and the preceding November mega-ridge period it’s a fun coincidence.

That morning is seared into my memory. Waiting at the school bus stop in the rain, just feeling completely depressed. Probably my first big weenie loss as a young weather nerd. 

[Winterdog]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Starting to snow. Very wet and sloppy, temp down to 35.2 from 37.2 in the last 5 minutes. 

Radar shows it snowing here but it's all rain and 37.2 here

[LowerGarfield]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

I'm also a Raiders fan so that gif is pretty tame :P.

[HuskyMaestro]

4 minutes ago, thickhog said:

It’ll never snow in the Portland metro area again, will it? Might as well be Phoenix.

It's how I feel with Tacoma and Puyallup. Constantly seeing that I'm in the donut hole on maps. We're cursed as hell. 

[Nov1985]

The week ahead, 2M temps

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

That morning is seared into my memory. Waiting at the school bus stop in the rain, just feeling completely depressed. Probably my first big weenie loss as a young weather nerd. 

I was lucky enough to be out of town that week. It snowed in Olympia!

Edited November 28, 2022 by Deweydog

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nelsen has broken his silence. 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to never believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, HuskyMaestro said:

It's how I feel with Tacoma and Puyallup. Constantly seeing that I'm in the donut hole on maps. We're cursed as hell. 

It makes it even worse when areas just north of Puyallup/Tacoma get snow and areas just south. Horrible area. The snow hole is horrible. 
 

You get warmed nose, rain shadowed, low elevation, no convergence zone and have a east wind kinda. There isn’t one positive factor for snow

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

It's how I feel with Tacoma and Puyallup. Constantly seeing that I'm in the donut hole on maps. We're cursed as hell. 

I don't think you're going to miss much. This has been death by a thousand paper cuts with fcst temps creeping up each day. We're still far enough from Friday that something could happen. Friday has been an inconsistent mess in the models for about a week now. A little potential still left with the right shift.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I was lucky enough to be out of town that week. It snowed in Olympia!

The South Sound did great with that one... same here.    It was our first big snowfall after moving into this house.    I clearly remember my wife waking up that morning and saying that it looks like we live at Snoqualmie Pass.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to ever believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a crappy run. Wow. 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 7:

4 Run Trend:

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 8:

[Gradient Keeper]

That Greenland block is absolutely enormous. I wonder how many standard deviations above normal the 500mb heights are.

[HuskyMaestro]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It makes it even worse when areas just north of Puyallup/Tacoma get snow and areas just south. Horrible area. The snow hole is horrible. 
 

You get warmed nose, rain shadowed, low elevation, no convergence zone and have a east wind kinda. There isn’t one positive factor for snow

On the plus side, it's really good motivation to work/study hard and move elsewhere that's snowier within Western WA. I'm thinking North Bend or somewhere higher up along the King/Snohomish county line. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That Greenland block is absolutely enormous. I wonder how many standard deviations above normal the 500mb heights are.

69

[Winterdog]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to never believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it.

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes

This seems to be the worst l've seen it perform.  Not only is it way off temperature wise it shows snow all the time while the temps couldn't possibly support it.  It seems ridiculous that we would spend hours detailing every nuance of it's output when we know it's pure crap.  Knowing this I still like seeing the phony forecasts it produces.  Weenie psychosis

[DeepFriedEgg]

Bad run PDX doesn't even touch freezing. Only thing we have learned from this is that the GFS is seriously worthless. Long live king euro.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What a crappy run. Wow. 

Nah. Raging split flow with a Winter drought pattern would be crappy.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

There is a large and intense hunk of moisture that looks like it will just skirt to my south over the next hour or so. Models still are undecided whether it's going to snow up here tonight, but with a temperature of 43F currently, 850mb temps around -5C and 925mb temps hovering right at 0C, I'm suspicious. I guess if it hangs around long enough it will bring the temp down, but if it was anything frozen it would more likely be hail than snow.

It could be quite good for Randy in the coming hours though.

I probably should of overstayed my welcome up north ! Ugh 

[Gradient Keeper]

[TacomaWx]

I’d really enjoy living out near @MR.SNOWMIZER. Just a better place for snow and super close to green mountain which is about 1600’. Can just go for a hike and get snow in a marginal situation. 

[MossMan]

Just a light mix now but temp is down to 34.3. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Bad run PDX doesn't even touch freezing. Only thing we have learned from this is that the GFS is seriously worthless. Long live king euro.

We will need to plug it into our machine learning weather model. The advanced AI will objectively apply this lesson moving forward. But this place will be a lot more boring because we will all KNOW it is not going to snow. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Continued multiple chances for lowland snow in western Washington on this run.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to be funny if it actually dumps snow in Seattle.  I prepared today for heavy snow Tuesday night. Filled gas cans, started generator.  Looking like a huge wet snow event here and it will probably be destructive.  

[Darrington Troll]

33 degrees and moderate snow - appears to be setting in for the night. 

[Perturbed Member]

I'm surprised Mark even put some flakes in the 7 day. None of the models currently show any chance of sticking snow in the Willamette valley in the next 7 days though I think that could still change with fairly minor tweaks to the evolution of this pattern. I suspect there will still be a clear north south gradient this round however.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 38. At 0.19” of rain so far for the day. Might get some more today if the convergence zone slides south before midnight.

[lowlandsnow]

00z is snowier than the 18z 

[TacomaWx]

Down to 38 here but still solidly in the shadow for now.