November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

I am sure I'm wrong, but I'm rather hopeful after Day 5 something magical is on the way.

6z GFS in 2 hours 29 minutes

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I am sure I'm wrong, but I'm rather hopeful after Day 5 something magical is on the way.

6z GFS in 2 hours 29 minutes

All we really need is that block to act right and the hammer will drop and not move out so fast 

[Gradient Keeper]

If we get a ridge bridge like this run shows that can really be a huge game changer. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Where's Jim? He would be totally pumped right now. @snow_wizard

[Kolk1604]

EPS Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

C'mon EPS!

[Kolk1604]

Day 6

[Kolk1604]

Day 7

[Requiem]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. M E G A s n o w !

Where does that phantom snow in PDX come from?

[Guest administrator]

54 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

00Z Euro is nice for my area. Temp and DP point to this being real snow, not phantom snow.

That YXX reading tells me you're a victim of terrain bleed and knock on temps. Unless you're going to tell me that the snow over the lower strait is real too.

[Kolk1604]

Ridge Bridge at Day 8!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Where's Jim? He would be totally pumped right now. @snow_wizard

That's why the Euro improved.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Ridge Bridge at Day 8!

Pretty classic Arctic air pattern being shown there. Very February 2019 like.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, administrator said:

That YXX reading tells me you're a victim of terrain bleed and knock on temps. Unless you're going to tell me that the snow over the lower strait is real too.

There's lots of reasons why YXX might fail to get as much snow as YVR. And the eastern coast of Vancouver Island often does really well in the snow department. Nanaimo really got buried last December.

[Kolk1604]

Day 9

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 9

feels like an offshore flow/downslope pattern 

[Kolk1604]

Day 10 

[Winterdog]

Wow, that deteriorated quickly

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 10 

Someone in NA is going to get extremely cold with that much Greenland blocking.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Kayla said:

Someone in NA is going to get extremely cold with that much Greenland blocking.

Hopefully in the west 

[Kolk1604]

Hmm new block forming? Day 12 

[Phil]

This is some great incredible troposphere/stratosphere coupling on the GFS. That -NAO signature is evident from 500mb all the way to 10mb.

[WeatherGeek2022]

snowpocalypse waiting room 

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM is running!

[North_County]

32 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There's lots of reasons why YXX might fail to get as much snow as YVR. And the eastern coast of Vancouver Island often does really well in the snow department. Nanaimo really got buried last December.

Looks like a modest outflow signature to me, with lower totals in the more outflow-exposed areas of the lower Fraser Valley than in Vancouver proper.

High totals along eastern Vancouver Island and northern Olympic peninsula seem to support that as well.

I'd wager it's  really not all that uncommon for YVR to outperform YXX so long as it's chilly enough. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[North_County]

Switched over to cold rain some time ago, but it's a nice bonus to get a legitimate dusting before the calendar switches over to December.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Goofus continues to be insanely snowy up my way. This map covers the storm on Tuesday and Wednesday. Modeled to be at/below freezing at the surface the entire time.

Euro is more conservative and says I should get about half as much, which still means about 8".

[bainbridgekid]

34 here with quite a bit of shower activity approaching from the NW.

 

[NWbyNW]

4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

People were walking in the hail.

It wasn't hailing when they started. 

[gusky]

40.5 in N SEA, was planning on staying up till ~3 to try and see snow but I don't really see any way this produces snow here. Last 3 HRRR runs all dropped any hope of snow anyway.

[NWbyNW]

12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

34 here with quite a bit of shower activity approaching from the NW.

 

Don't expect any snow.  It's just rain here.  36F here at sea level. 

[NWbyNW]

Puget Sound lowlands, don't expect snow.  Simple as that.  Never got on board with this excitement.  There is also once again somewhat of a rain shadow over Seattle, though not as strong as previous storms. But there is some snow falling on Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland!  Vancouver's metro is seeing some snow fall.  It's possible Whatcom County gets a dusting as well.  Otherwise just snow in the mountains. 

[NWbyNW]

Currently no snow falling at the Stevens Pass cam. As of 12:50am Nov 28, there is just under 7 inches.

 

[bainbridgekid]

4 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Currently no snow falling at the Stevens Pass cam. As of 12:50am Nov 28, there is just under 7 inches.

 

Mountains got a lot less snow than expected from this system so far. I was at Snoqualmie Pass this afternoon and they’d only gotten maybe 3” total and roads were fine. 

[gusky]

12 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Puget Sound lowlands, don't expect snow.  Simple as that.  Never got on board with this excitement.  There is also once again somewhat of a rain shadow over Seattle, though not as strong as previous storms. But there is some snow falling on Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland!  Vancouver's metro is seeing some snow fall.  It's possible Whatcom County gets a dusting as well.  Otherwise just snow in the mountains. 

Yeah this is almost certainly a total bust for tonight, especially in Seattle. Staying up a bit longer for that 1% chance tho

[Rubus Leucodermis]

26 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Puget Sound lowlands, don't expect snow.  Simple as that.  Never got on board with this excitement.  There is also once again somewhat of a rain shadow over Seattle, though not as strong as previous storms. But there is some snow falling on Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland!  Vancouver's metro is seeing some snow fall.  It's possible Whatcom County gets a dusting as well.  Otherwise just snow in the mountains. 

There was some hail in Abbotsford and Sumas earlier. The only sure snow I know about is atop Burnaby Mountain (aka the SFU campus), about 1200 feet elevation. There is exactly zero snow here (230' elevation) in East Van right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Do you want me to run the 6z? or nah?

[Dave]

Finally snowing here in Bend. Just a light snowfall but it is accumulating. A dusting on the roofs and cars so far. Hoping for an inch or two.

[Kolk1604]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Do you want me to run the 6z? or nah?

Is anyone up? It was pretty quiet during the 00z runs