November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Blizzard777]

Wet snow falling at Roche Harbor San Juan Islands 

https://islandcam.com/content/roche-harbor-san-juan-island-wa

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Woke up a bit ago to that ever lovely 32F rainfall . Currently back up to 33.5F with some stratiform rain. If these next few days are going to be one of those times where it refuses to snow until the temperatures are exactly 32.0F or below there's certainly not going to be a lot of snow.

It should not be. Dew points should be lower.

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not snowblower worthy...

Still pretty though 

[yellowstone]

Got some positive splats in N Seattle this morning. Honestly better than I would have expected for today. Still optimistic about seeing flakes and a bit of accumulation tomorrow before the changeover. 

[yellowstone]

Surprised not to be seeing 187 posts on here about how the Mauna Loa volcano will impact the upcoming storm…

[Chewbacca Defense]

Winter weather advisory cancelled up here under severe clear skies.  We still have the wind advisory though

[mtep]

10 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Got nothing up here....well... 0.04" of precip but no snow.  I woke up at 6 to take the dog out and the back deck was still just wet.   By 6:20, it was frozen solid.  Crazy how quickly it happened. 

D**n thats strange! Figured you would've gotten a little more than me being up the hill a bit. Moisture must've been pretty sparse overnight. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Looking at the 06Z Euro and the GFS, these amounts out of my Wunderground forecast are actually quite plausible.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just now, mtep said:

D**n thats strange! Figured you would've gotten a little more than me being up the hill a bit. Moisture must've been pretty sparse overnight. 

Yeah I was surprised when you said you had a dusting.  It's possible it fell as wet snow and melted I guess.  Looks like it hit about 2:20, and the temp was 34.5.

 

Sounds like the roads are a little slushy in Ferndale, and Kendall got a couple of inches. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

So then.....is it still really an upgrade? 

Sounds like the same as when Microsoft went from XP to Vista.....

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

Perfect... another upgrade that makes it worse! 

[Terreboner]

Heavy snow shower getting ready to move in, been watching Juniper Butte and Grey Butte slowly disappear and watching Crooked River Ranch get obscured right now.   Looks like a good one.  Will get some pics.

[ShawniganLake]

Clear skies 28F

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So then.....is it still really an upgrade? 

Sounds like the same as when Microsoft went from XP to Vista.....

You'd think that they would realize this, and not make it the new version.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

You'd think that they would realize this, and not make it the new version.   

It's the Federal government. Perhaps there is a clause in a funding appropriation specifying a deadline for putting in the new system.

[Terreboner]

Heavy snow squall moving through right now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Frosty and 28.6˚F. Lots of black ice on the streets.

[MossMan]

Had a nice dusting overnight. 
Currently 32.5

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS still dumps a foot of snow on downtown Seattle in a short time on Wednesday morning.    Its not going to change right up to the event.   So it will either be a huge win or massive bust.   

[RentonHill]

17 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

You'd think that they would realize this, and not make it the new version.   

Could have made a bunch of improvements to surface details? His just measures 500 heights. 

[Terreboner]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS still dumps a foot of snow on downtown Seattle in a short time on Wednesday morning.    Its not going to change right up to the event.   So it will either be a huge win or massive bust.   

I could see someone elevated away from the water getting 6-8 for sure.  Clearview, three lakes, Lake Stevens, etc...  But Seattle proper??  Going to be tough.

[Terreboner]

Currently dumping here.  May squeeze 2 inches out of this after all.

[jakerepp]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's the Federal government. Perhaps there is a clause in a funding appropriation specifying a deadline for putting in the new system.

Then they need to can their development team or whatever and find people that can actually make a positive impact. But, as you said, it is the Feds we're talking about.

[North_County]

State DOT had the snowplow out this morning,  which I thought was funny.

 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS still dumps a foot of snow on downtown Seattle in a short time on Wednesday morning.    Its not going to change right up to the event.   So it will either be a huge win or massive bust.   

It wont snow a foot but a few quick inches is possible. This system is packing a punch so the heavy precip rates might do the trick.

[Weiner Warrior]

54 hours and 0% chance this verifies but fun to think of the possibilities 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Then they need to can their development team or whatever and find people that can actually make a positive impact. But, as you said, it is the Feds we're talking about.

Or just a manager who can think creatively and brand the old version with some minor cosmetic improvements and tweaks to be the “new” one.

[Weiner Warrior]

Mixed rain and snow. Bellevue 515'

[Terreboner]

Absolutely dumping....unreal!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

54 hours and 0% chance this verifies but fun to think of the possibilities 

It's possible. I remember a storm back in the 90's that dumped 4-8 inches over the kitsap pen and out towards seatac that was all from evap cooling, no snow at all in the forecast.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Could have made a bunch of improvements to surface details? His just measures 500 heights. 

It is supposed to be better with snow.  Current GFS overestimates snow totals in marginal temps, and underestimates snow with very cold temps.  

But if you don't get the 500 heights correct, how can the snow forecasts be better?

[Weiner Warrior]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's possible. I remember a storm back in the 90's that dumped 4-8 inches over the kitsap pen and out towards seatac that was all from evap cooling, no snow at all in the forecast.

I'd love to see it verify!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It is supposed to be better with snow.  Current GFS overestimates snow totals in marginal temps, and underestimates snow with very cold temps.  

But if you don't get the 500 heights correct, how can the snow forecasts be better?

I guess if surface details are better the snow forecast could improve in the short term.

[Terreboner]

Good times!!!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It is supposed to be better with snow.  Current GFS overestimates snow totals in marginal temps, and underestimates snow with very cold temps.  

But if you don't get the 500 heights correct, how can the snow forecasts be better?

And GFS predicting a foot of snow for Seattle might be the textbook example of overforecasting snow in marginal temp situations.

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 minutes ago, North_County said:

State DOT had the snowplow out this morning,  which I thought was funny.

 

 

 

Hang in there, I'm busting out one of my kids old sleds and rigging a harness for my dog, we will be heading out shortly to bring you supplies in case WSDOT can't dig you guys out!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It's possible. I remember a storm back in the 90's that dumped 4-8 inches over the kitsap pen and out towards seatac that was all from evap cooling, no snow at all in the forecast.

I think I remember that storm. It was fun. It didn’t surprise me because temperatures were right on the edge so I knew it was a possibility.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

And GFS predicting a foot of snow for Seattle might be the textbook example of overforecasting snow in marginal temp situations.

Although there is this, the new GFS

[smerfylicious]

I asked Tim politely to spare a couple inches. Based on the exterior of my home and his, looks like he didn't have a couple to spare.