Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Maybe for 500mb to Day 4.5 or 5, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, joelgombiner said: Both western Washington radars appear to be down... They have until 7am Tuesday before anyone cares... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 DP down to 16 in Bellingham with a temp of 34. Tomorrow night’s forecast will be highly dependent on how much dry air is able to move into the area over the next 24 hours, so watching DP’s will be big. 5 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So they upgrade the GFS and its worse. Unbelievable. ECMWF far superior. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 I’ve been raging against the GFS for years. Now y’all see why. 5 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: That polar lobe looks like something thrown from Sub-Zero. Blows up when hitting the border and has a little friend coming for reinforcements. Geography of the Rockies forcing it to expand outward 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Cold, dry air must have just reached my location. Dew point is dropping like a rock with humidity down 10% in the last 10 minutes. 3 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: I’ve been raging against the GFS for years. Now y’all see why. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 59 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Euro Kuchera Holy Hood Canal. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Love PNW snow pics. Landscape up there is perfect for it. 7 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Here she comes. 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Holy Hood Canal. Going to be a big one! 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Skagit Weather Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Cold, dry air must have just reached my location. Dew point is dropping like a rock with humidity down 10% in the last 10 minutes. Update: You can see a pretty cool dividing line between dew points in the low to mid 30s and dew points in the 20s and 10s. You can also see how the cold air is blocked by the Chuckanut mountains from most of Skagit County (near Mt. Vernon and to the west), but it's also starting to flow down the south fork of the Nooksack River Valley which is why those 18F and 28F values are there. 7 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Weather app just bumped my snow amounts from 2” to 4” tomorrow for north seattle 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 The 12z EPS is colder for surface temps early next week but idk how much surface temps matter when looking at ensembles. 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Gfs is rock solid. 1 1 1 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post The Ms. Anthrop Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 hours ago, yellowstone said: Surprised not to be seeing 187 posts on here about how the Mauna Loa volcano will impact the upcoming storm… My dad retired in July and moved out to the Big Island. He sends me taunting pictures almost daily of the beaches and lovely island weather. I received something rather different this morning... I'm still waiting to hear how much ash is decorating his yard. Safe to say he got more ash than I got snow in south Seattle That all being said, the NOAA satellite pictures of the sulfur dioxide and heat release from last night are pretty neat, and I would be curious how much it could nudge or stir the upper atmosphere up. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 UW model. Parts of this may be overdone south of everett imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Started sprinkling at work with those marginal showers, so I quickly took an elevator up to the top floor around 500' up. Sure enough, it was snowing.. Camera does not pick up on the flakes at all. They were mostly melted anyways, and this was taken during a brief lull. Facing NW towards Queen Anne hill from Westlake. 18 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Cloud streets (blue) as cold continental air pours out over the Pacific, and a continental front in the northern Puget Sound (teal), confirmed by the dewpoint analysis posted by @Skagit Weather. The front looks a little stuck in place on the animated imagery. Edit: it looks like two convergence zones are forming stretching from the north-central Sound to the SE tip of Vancouver Island. Maybe someone will see some snow showers. 4 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: UW model. Parts of this may be overdone south of everett imo. IMO, overdone around N Seattle-Everett, and underdone south of there. I'd expect an even Tr-6", with a smooth N/S gradient, more as you go north. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Snowing at work in Port orchard 12 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 It's been a real hoot these last couple days watching the GFS and Euro absolutely bury my location despite less-than-ideal dynamics. Taken at face value, my house in north Seattle is at ground zero for an incredible snowstorm on every GFS run going back three days. Hilarious. Sad part is, I believe absolutely none of it 8 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, joelgombiner said: Cloud streets (blue) as cold continental air pours out over the Pacific, and an Arctic front (?) in the northern Puget Sound (teal), confirmed by the dewpoint analysis posted by @Skagit Weather. The front looks a little stuck in place on the animated imagery. Definitely slightly moving south though now. My humidity is now down from 90% to 60% in the last 40 minutes and dew point has dropped from 36F to 26F. So it's coming, but as usual it may take longer than expected to get there. 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 EPS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Light rain/snow mix here currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Sunbreaks here and 43 after a low of 36. Would be nice to get some clearing and a hard freeze tonight. Euro seems to think it’s possible. 4 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: It's been a real hoot these last couple days watching the GFS and Euro absolutely bury my location despite less-than-ideal dynamics. Taken at face value, my house in north Seattle is at ground zero for an incredible snowstorm on every GFS run going back three days. Hilarious. Sad part is, I believe absolutely none of it Can you remember an event where uncertainty was so high a day or two before? I just have no confidence that most places are going to get any snow, but I guess we'll see later tomorrow. 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 If it snows a foot at my place tomorrow into tomorrow night, I will walk around my block barefoot. 9 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 picked up about 1.5-2" so far this morning. now I'm trying to see if I can do my business meetings Wed/Thurs remote and postpone this onsite biz trip to until next quarter/spring lol have trips next week and the following, but the storm this midweek looks like an unmissable douzy, perhaps the biggest since I've lived here worth a try 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: EPS Definitely ends in a better spot than the 00z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Is it just me or is KATX down? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 12z EPS definitely looks better in the long range than it did last night. 2 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Definitely ends in a better spot than the 00z Blocking looks a little far west at face value but it’s an ensemble mean and like you said it improved from last night’s run. 3 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Euro Kuchera Ah yes, the Kelso to Medford snow hole... 1 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Finally snowing here. The sidewalk is turning white. We had light flurries all morning but more similar to mist or sprinkles. The sun even came out and the advisory was ended early. But nowthe road is filling up even since I started writing this message and trying to look busy since I'm on a webcam at work. 3 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said: Finally snowing here. The sidewalk is turning white. We had light flurries all morning but more similar to mist or sprinkles. The sun even came out and the advisory was ended early. But nowthe road is filling up even since I started writing this message and trying to look busy since I'm on a webcam at work. webcam all day? that blows. we only have to be on cam with our clients if they request so. A few internal meeting are on cam too, but most aren't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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