Guest administrator Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Something seems off about that, especially with the SE ridge displaced and a ridge starting to develop over the Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 18z NBM looks good for a few inches of snow Seattle north. 5 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, Cloud said: UW model. Parts of this may be overdone south of everett imo. Big hole over Bellingham proper with decent totals just east and south of town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, Cloud said: UW model. Parts of this may be overdone south of everett imo. Man I hate the WRF snow maps. Always wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Can you remember an event where uncertainty was so high a day or two before? I just have no confidence that most places are going to get any snow, but I guess we'll see later tomorrow. The end of the Jan 2020 'event' was absolute pandemonium. Suddenly the Euro chucked out a 6-8" thumping Oly-north, but hours after the run came out the incoming low was twice as strong as modeled, and it was already 40F and mixing with a strong south wind. We didn't see 30s for a while after that, maybe a week. The event was over an hour after a WSW was issued. 3 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, Cold Snap said: 18z NBM looks good for a few inches of snow Seattle north. Maybe we can see some flakes here in Portland going by this map 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The end of the Jan 2020 'event' was absolute pandemonium. Suddenly the Euro chucked out a 6-8" thumping Oly-north, but hours after the run came out the incoming low was twice as strong as modeled, and it was already 40F and mixing with a strong south wind. We didn't see 30s for a while after that, maybe a week. The event was over an hour after a WSW was issued. Same vibes from this. I think the GEM might be the closest to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Cloud said: Is it just me or is KATX down? Both are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Can you remember an event where uncertainty was so high a day or two before? I just have no confidence that most places are going to get any snow, but I guess we'll see later tomorrow. This is why I absolutely do not envy the folks at Sandpoint. Must be pulling hairs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Currently 40. Got down to 33 this morning. 0.06” precip for the day. Looks like the low for the day for me will occur just before midnight tonight. 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: Maybe we can see some flakes here in Portland going by this map Am skeptical but we'll see 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The end of the Jan 2020 'event' was absolute pandemonium. Suddenly the Euro chucked out a 6-8" thumping Oly-north, but hours after the run came out the incoming low was twice as strong as modeled, and it was already 40F and mixing with a strong south wind. We didn't see 30s for a while after that, maybe a week. The event was over an hour after a WSW was issued. Ahhh yes, makes sense why it didn't come to mind immediately because I had a significant amount of snow with the event so I wasn't such a weenie. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Rain or snow or snain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post LowerGarfield Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: webcam all day? that blows. we only have to be on cam with our clients if they request so. A few internal meeting are on cam too, but most aren't I recently started a new promotion with my current company but for the next month we are on camera during training. Otherwise only during meetings. I wouldn't want to work where I'm always on camera. I know a few companies that do that unfortunately. 13 Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Brennan said: Big hole over Bellingham proper with decent totals just east and south of town. I've experienced that before. Makes sense since Bellingham is right on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Looking likely we avoid any actual arctic air west of the cascades anytime soon. Kind of disappointing given the amount of blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Looking likely we avoid any actual arctic air west of the cascades anytime soon. Kind of disappointing given the amount of blocking. Yea, at least this is happening in late November and not the middle of January when the window is starting to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Looking likely we avoid any actual arctic air west of the cascades anytime soon. Kind of disappointing given the amount of blocking. 3 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Snow is very slow to melt today! Currently 36.0 with a DP of 33. Here is a live shot. Still a little bit on some of the trees. 9 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 There’s actually a decent amount of EPS members that want to get us cold around 12/7 5 1 Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Tuesday looks winD 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 40.6°F and there's some stuff falling from the sky. Not rain. Not snow. Not quite hail....Graupel? Maybe graupel. It's already stopped while I was typing this....lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 I can't remember ever seeing anything like this... the event is a day out. 1 DAY. And gfs *ENSEMBLE* means at near a foot. From an event in which temps, by its OWN PREDICTIONS, won't even be at freezing across the region. I genuinely cannot comprehend how such an output can still be possible. I want to believe this so bad, but I know it's just totally impossible. But please let this happen anyway! 6 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 A rain/snow mix starting to fall here in Covington at 500 ft. 5 Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, administrator said: Same vibes from this. I think the GEM might be the closest to reality. The GEM is probably way too aggressive with cold air scouring. Euro a little bit so, but not nearly as bad. GFS is simultaneously too aggressive with couring out the antecedent airmass south of Seattle, and too aggressive with Cascade gap outflow KSEA northward. My thoughts are Tr-4" across the Sound, more as you head north. 2-8" in the Hood Canal, Tr-12" in the foothills, the higher amounts around North Bend, and lower amounts in Enumclaw/Maple Valley type areas where east winds are ripping locally. 6 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, gusky said: I can't remember ever seeing anything like this... the event is a day out. 1 DAY. And gfs *ENSEMBLE* means at near a foot. From an event in which temps, by its OWN PREDICTIONS, won't even be at freezing across the region. I genuinely cannot comprehend how such an output can still be possible. I want to believe this so bad, but I know it's just totally impossible. But please let this happen anyway! The issue here is that this is a 10:1 ratio. This type of snow would be likely half that ratio at least, so you're looking more like 4-6 wet inches. And since there's likely to be some rain mixing in, this output is more like a few wet inches on the ground. Models are notoriously misleading with accumulation outputs. If you look at just the snow output, it'll seen like every flake will stick to groubd. Better to look at the QPF and apply the most likely ratio. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 18z NAM snow totals. 2 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just logging on for the first time today…only interesting weather I’ve seen today was a pretty intense graupel shower about 6am this morning. High temp of 40 so far at home 39 currently. Been getting sloppy rain on and off here in Kent this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Archon said: A rain/snow mix starting to fall here in Covington at 500 ft. I hope the east wind doesn’t kill my snow tommorow night. Been snowing off and on here in Ravensdale area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: The GEM is probably way too aggressive with cold air scouring. Euro a little bit so, but not nearly as bad. GFS is simultaneously too aggressive with couring out the antecedent airmass south of Seattle, and too aggressive with Cascade gap outflow KSEA northward. My thoughts are Tr-4" across the Sound, more as you head north. 2-8" in the Hood Canal, Tr-12" in the foothills, the higher amounts around North Bend, and lower amounts in Enumclaw/Maple Valley type areas where east winds are ripping locally. The GEM is also modeling some of the strongest southerly winds I've ever seen it spit out-- I have doubts the front is gonna be that intense. 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said: The issue here is that this is a 10:1 ratio. This type of snow would be likely half that ratio at least, so you're looking more like 4-6 wet inches. And since there's likely to be some rain mixing in, this output is more like a few wet inches on the ground. Models are notoriously misleading with accumulation outputs. If you look at just the snow output, it'll seen like every flake will stick to groubd. Better to look at the QPF and apply the most likely ratio. Good point. Even with all that I think it's quite overdone, but maybe a bit more accurate. Would kill for a Kuchera ensemble spread 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Light graupel shower 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Looks like the Radar is working again. 3 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) Edited November 28, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: Looks like the Radar is working again. Costal still seems to be down. *flails* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1597328431976370176?t=1EeQ9OX2riUSSKaXTq79Wg&s=19 This sounds like a non event based on everyones reaction to the update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 34.5 with some light flurries here. Chilly day for sure. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 49 minutes ago, administrator said: Something seems off about that, especially with the SE ridge displaced and a ridge starting to develop over the Baja. It looks odd because we haven’t seen a bonafide scand—>-NAO evolution in awhile. Feb/Mar 2018 comes to mind. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 GFS “upgrade” delayed a day. 1 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by smerfylicious,
Congrats!!!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
40 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by SouthHillJimmy,
Welcome Jimmy!
Recommended by Meatyorologist
21 reactions
Go to this post