November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Guest administrator]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Something seems off about that, especially with the SE ridge displaced and a ridge starting to develop over the Baja.

[Cold Snap]

18z NBM looks good for a few inches of snow Seattle north.

[Brennan]

23 minutes ago, Cloud said:

UW model. Parts of this may be overdone south of everett imo.

 

Big hole over Bellingham proper with decent totals just east and south of town. 

[SnowWillarrive]

23 minutes ago, Cloud said:

UW model. Parts of this may be overdone south of everett imo.

 

Man I hate the WRF snow maps. Always wrong. 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Can you remember an event where uncertainty was so high a day or two before? I just have no confidence that most places are going to get any snow, but I guess we'll see later tomorrow.

The end of the Jan 2020 'event' was absolute pandemonium. Suddenly the Euro chucked out a 6-8" thumping Oly-north, but hours after the run came out the incoming low was twice as strong as modeled, and it was already 40F and mixing with a strong south wind. We didn't see 30s for a while after that, maybe a week. The event was over an hour after a WSW was issued.

[Doinko]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

18z NBM looks good for a few inches of snow Seattle north.

Maybe we can see some flakes here in Portland going by this map

[Guest administrator]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The end of the Jan 2020 'event' was absolute pandemonium. Suddenly the Euro chucked out a 6-8" thumping Oly-north, but hours after the run came out the incoming low was twice as strong as modeled, and it was already 40F and mixing with a strong south wind. We didn't see 30s for a while after that, maybe a week. The event was over an hour after a WSW was issued.

Same vibes from this. I think the GEM might be the closest to reality.

[Jbolin]

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Is it just me or is KATX down?

Both are 

[Cloud]

18 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Can you remember an event where uncertainty was so high a day or two before? I just have no confidence that most places are going to get any snow, but I guess we'll see later tomorrow.

This is why I absolutely do not envy the folks at Sandpoint. Must be pulling hairs. 

[Cold Snap]

Currently 40. Got down to 33 this morning. 0.06” precip for the day. Looks like the low for the day for me will occur just before midnight tonight.

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Maybe we can see some flakes here in Portland going by this map

Am skeptical but we'll see 

[Skagit Weather]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The end of the Jan 2020 'event' was absolute pandemonium. Suddenly the Euro chucked out a 6-8" thumping Oly-north, but hours after the run came out the incoming low was twice as strong as modeled, and it was already 40F and mixing with a strong south wind. We didn't see 30s for a while after that, maybe a week. The event was over an hour after a WSW was issued.

Ahhh yes, makes sense why it didn't come to mind immediately because I had a significant amount of snow with the event so I wasn't such a weenie.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain or snow or snain?

[LowerGarfield]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

webcam all day?  that blows.  we only have to be on cam with our clients if they request so.  A few internal meeting are on cam too, but most aren't

I recently started a new promotion with my current company but for the next month we are on camera during training. Otherwise only during meetings. I wouldn't want to work where I'm always on camera. I know a few companies that do that unfortunately.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

13 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Big hole over Bellingham proper with decent totals just east and south of town. 

I've experienced that before.  Makes sense since Bellingham is right on the water.  

[ShawniganLake]

Looking likely we avoid any actual arctic air west of the cascades anytime soon.  Kind of disappointing given the amount of blocking. 

[Gummy]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looking likely we avoid any actual arctic air west of the cascades anytime soon.  Kind of disappointing given the amount of blocking. 

Yea, at least this is happening in late November and not the middle of January when the window is starting to close.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looking likely we avoid any actual arctic air west of the cascades anytime soon.  Kind of disappointing given the amount of blocking. 

[MossMan]

Snow is very slow to melt today! Currently 36.0 with a DP of 33. Here is a live shot. Still a little bit on some of the trees. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

There’s actually a decent amount of EPS members that want to get us cold around 12/7

[Requiem]

Tuesday looks winD 

[Everleigh]

40.6°F and there's some stuff falling from the sky. Not rain. Not snow. Not quite hail....Graupel? Maybe graupel. 

 

It's already stopped while I was typing this....lol 

[gusky]

I can't remember ever seeing anything like this... the event is a day out. 1 DAY. And gfs *ENSEMBLE* means at near a foot. From an event in which temps, by its OWN PREDICTIONS, won't even be at freezing across the region. I genuinely cannot comprehend how such an output can still be possible. I want to believe this so bad, but I know it's just totally impossible. But please let this happen anyway!

[The Winter Warlock]

A rain/snow mix starting to fall here in Covington at 500 ft. 

[Meatyorologist]

17 minutes ago, administrator said:

Same vibes from this. I think the GEM might be the closest to reality.

The GEM is probably way too aggressive with cold air scouring. Euro a little bit so, but not nearly as bad. GFS is simultaneously too aggressive with couring out the antecedent airmass south of Seattle, and too aggressive with Cascade gap outflow KSEA northward.

My thoughts are Tr-4" across the Sound, more as you head north. 2-8" in the Hood Canal, Tr-12" in the foothills, the higher amounts around North Bend, and lower amounts in Enumclaw/Maple Valley type areas where east winds are ripping locally.

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

I can't remember ever seeing anything like this... the event is a day out. 1 DAY. And gfs *ENSEMBLE* means at near a foot. From an event in which temps, by its OWN PREDICTIONS, won't even be at freezing across the region. I genuinely cannot comprehend how such an output can still be possible. I want to believe this so bad, but I know it's just totally impossible. But please let this happen anyway!

The issue here is that this is a 10:1 ratio. This type of snow would be likely half that ratio at least, so you're looking more like 4-6 wet inches. And since there's likely to be some rain mixing in, this output is more like a few wet inches on the ground.

Models are notoriously misleading with accumulation outputs. If you look at just the snow output, it'll seen like every flake will stick to groubd. Better to look at the QPF and apply the most likely ratio. 

[Cold Snap]

18z NAM snow totals.

[TacomaWx]

Just logging on for the first time today…only interesting weather I’ve seen today was a pretty intense graupel shower about 6am this morning. High temp of 40 so far at home 39 currently. Been getting sloppy rain on and off here in Kent this morning. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, Archon said:

A rain/snow mix starting to fall here in Covington at 500 ft. 

I hope the east wind doesn’t kill my snow tommorow night. Been snowing off and on here in Ravensdale area. 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The GEM is probably way too aggressive with cold air scouring. Euro a little bit so, but not nearly as bad. GFS is simultaneously too aggressive with couring out the antecedent airmass south of Seattle, and too aggressive with Cascade gap outflow KSEA northward.

My thoughts are Tr-4" across the Sound, more as you head north. 2-8" in the Hood Canal, Tr-12" in the foothills, the higher amounts around North Bend, and lower amounts in Enumclaw/Maple Valley type areas where east winds are ripping locally.

The GEM is also modeling some of the strongest southerly winds I've ever seen it spit out-- I have doubts the front is gonna be that intense. 

[gusky]

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

The issue here is that this is a 10:1 ratio. This type of snow would be likely half that ratio at least, so you're looking more like 4-6 wet inches. And since there's likely to be some rain mixing in, this output is more like a few wet inches on the ground.

Models are notoriously misleading with accumulation outputs. If you look at just the snow output, it'll seen like every flake will stick to groubd. Better to look at the QPF and apply the most likely ratio. 

Good point. Even with all that I think it's quite overdone, but maybe a bit more accurate. Would kill for a Kuchera ensemble spread

[SouthHillFrosty]

Light graupel shower 

[Cold Snap]

Looks like the Radar is working again.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Everleigh]

5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like the Radar is working again.

Costal still seems to be down. *flails* 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1597328431976370176?t=1EeQ9OX2riUSSKaXTq79Wg&s=19

This sounds like a non event based on everyones reaction to the update

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

[ShawniganLake]

34.5 with some light flurries here. Chilly day for sure. 

[Phil]

49 minutes ago, administrator said:

Something seems off about that, especially with the SE ridge displaced and a ridge starting to develop over the Baja.

It looks odd because we haven’t seen a bonafide scand—>-NAO evolution in awhile. Feb/Mar 2018 comes to mind.

[Phil]

GFS “upgrade” delayed a day.