November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Requiem]

Crossing my fingers for a few surprises region-wide the next week...

[Meatyorologist]

NAM has a straight up arctic snap beginning Thursday evening. Arctic front advancing into a frigid maritime airmass with a potent deformation band forming. Crazy development

[TacomaWx]

Nice to see the idea of some snow thursday gaining traction on the models. Even some places that hit hard with the first round will change over to rain briefly…so we’re gonna need some fresh snow afterwards! 

[Perturbed Member]

31.7F. Feels wintery out there. Real fitting with all the Christmas lights going up too. 

[LowerGarfield]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I sent that elevation link to my son in Pullman and it said 2,400 feet.   He was shocked!  He had no idea that Pullman was that high... almost the same elevation as Snoqualmie Pass.    I knew it was around there... but its so deceiving because it feels like its lower than it is at our house.    You go downhill for 40 miles after the pass heading east and I think people subconsciously assume you are at the same elevation as Seattle across all of central and eastern WA because its generally flat.  

Yeah, it really is. The rolling hills don't seem all that high either. I'm actually about 30-40 ft higher than I thought, so probably about 1880 or so per USGS, but even when you get about 150ft higher than my location, the snow really sticks quite a bit more. Ther's a small community 5 mins east of me, and when the snow is gone at my house, they still have snow at roughly 2,050 ft. 

Pullman really does not feel all that high with the exception of those places near Stadium Way or Sunnyside Park.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I know that.  I will not do it being affiliated with the Oregon Lottery.  Once they took over Draftkings I checked out on it.  Greedy government and politicians were upset they weren't getting their cut.  Sports betting should be a private enteprise, just like Marijuana should've stayed.  It's a topic for the other forums so I will stop there.

Before that it was hooked up to slow-ass Atlantic City books and they were so soft. It just takes such a huge bankroll for it to be viable so a lot of work but a lot of long-term reward over many years.

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Curiousity, why does it seem like the dew point goes down slower closer to the mountains?  North Bend and Enumclaw are nearly 30 for dew point still.

Because the cold/dry air is advecting from the north this time.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just finished a conference call with Cliff Mass,, JAYA, Jim, Tim, Jesse, Rich Marriott, Tim’s crappy shed, Kevin Martin, CliffMassYelledAtMe, Russell Wilson, and DomeBuster. 

That was sure awkward. 
 

However everyone is now onboard except for Cliff Mass and Tim’s shed. 
 

It’s coming. 

Rich Marriott was on board? I must have missed that when I stepped out to get a drink. Oops!

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Nice to see the idea of some snow thursday gaining traction on the models. Even some places that hit hard with the first round will change over to rain briefly…so we’re gonna need some fresh snow afterwards! 

Hilarious how those precip models show a big hole over Central OR due to no radar.  Just ridiculous that you can't see it in 2022.  I will grab my blue sharpie and fill it in.

[Meatyorologist]

Christmas tree up. It is allowed to snow now.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 33 here already.  Looks like I will be at freezing minimum number 20 at midnight tonight.  20 or more in November is no easy trick.

[MossMan]

Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Rich Marriott was on board? I must have missed that when I stepped out to get a drink. Oops!

Yeah he just didn’t want to side with Tim’s crappy shed. I don’t believe he is truly onboard though. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Christmas tree up. It is allowed to snow now.

And The Office playing in the the background? Perfection! 

[snow_wizard]

I'm prepared to be surprised here tomorrow.  It could work out here, but I'm concerned the precip rates will be low here.  That won't be a problem for Seattle northward though.

[Ellsworb]

Currently 31 with a DP of 29 here on the east shore of lake tapps!  Feels right outside. 

[RentonHill]

[Poulsbo Snowman]

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G17&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

 

A beautiful earth.  Oh--and it's coming.

[Nov1985]

7pm model forecast (latest runs) Temp/Dew for my coordinates

ECMWF: 29/28, GFS: 30/26, NAM (00Z): 35/25, HRRR: 32/23

Actual (6:30pm): 28.5/26.7

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

39/37 here. Good luck, Washingtonians.

[Seattle]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Jan 2017 and Feb 2014 came during a time when I was living in the Puget Sound area and getting skunked by big snowfalls to my north and south. For a number of years I never got more than an inch or two at any one time. Got quite frustrating.

Between Jan 2012 and Feb 2019, I never had more than 2-3” of snow that lasted longer than 24 hours in Seattle proper. Things really flipped in 2019 and we’ve had 3/4 past winters with exceptional events (hopefully 4/5 soon!). It’s easy to forget how long we can go with just scraps, so I do really feel for our Oregonian friends.

[High Desert Mat?]

16 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

I know that.  I will not do it being affiliated with the Oregon Lottery.  Once they took over Draftkings I checked out on it.  Greedy government and politicians were upset they weren't getting their cut.  Sports betting should be a private enteprise, just like Marijuana should've stayed.  It's a topic for the other forums so I will stop there.

Right, but don’t you play video poker on a regular basis the last few years? 

[Terreboner]

EPIC ROB NIGHT SHIFT FORTHCOMING NOV 28TH/29TH 2022!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Terreboner]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Right, but don’t you play video poker on a regular basis the last few years? 

Ya, I probably shouldn't and rarely do now.

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, Seattle said:

Between Jan 2012 and Feb 2019, I never had more than 2-3” of snow that lasted longer than 24 hours in Seattle proper. Things really flipped in 2019 and we’ve had 3/4 past winters with exceptional events (hopefully 4/5 soon!). It’s easy to forget how long we can go with just scraps, so I do really feel for our Oregonian friends.

No worries from me. November goods pretty much don't happen down here. It takes something really special like 1985 to make it happen. In general, we really need it to be 12/5 or later.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

NAM has a straight up arctic snap beginning Thursday evening. Arctic front advancing into a frigid maritime airmass with a potent deformation band forming. Crazy development

I think late Wednesday night and Thursday might well become the big show in the Seattle area.    That scenario has really taken off today in the models. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I know my elevation is 70 m (230') because that contour line on the topo map covering my area passes right through my home.

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I think late Wednesday night and Thursday might well become the big show in the Seattle area.    That scenario has really taken off today in the models. 

The NAM has a few inches for that event now

[Nov1985]

00Z NAM a bit warmer with a touch less snow depth Tue night, but makes up for it by coming around with a Wednesday night inch or two and colder. 

[The Winter Warlock]

IT BEGINS… SOON

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Purple is so close but just not able to get across the border. (Except for that bit in Montana, of course!)

[Dave]

Getting some unexpected snow flurries here. In yo face Warshington. 

[Cloud]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just finished a conference call with Cliff Mass,, JAYA, Jim, Tim, Jesse, Rich Marriott, Tim’s crappy shed, Kevin Martin, CliffMassYelledAtMe, Russell Wilson, and DomeBuster. 

That was sure awkward. 
 

However everyone is now onboard except for Cliff Mass and Tim’s shed. 
 

It’s coming. 

 

[RentonHill]

Pop quiz - me looking for any significant differences in the 00z model runs...OR...

Tim on the DOT cam sites this week ready to call BS on anybody and everybody on their snow level or elevation

[Meatyorologist]

ICON coming in flatter and weaker with the incoming trough, much like other guidance

[Nov1985]

33 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just finished a conference call with Cliff Mass,, JAYA, Jim, Tim, Jesse, Rich Marriott, Tim’s crappy shed, Kevin Martin, CliffMassYelledAtMe, Russell Wilson, and DomeBuster. 

That was sure awkward. 
 

However everyone is now onboard except for Cliff Mass and Tim’s shed. 
 

It’s coming. 

Let's ride!

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

ICON coming in flatter and weaker with the incoming trough, much like other guidance

you are so fast!!

[Nov1985]

00Z NAM actually looks like fun. Weeeee!

 

[Meatyorologist]

Pretty clear trend to weaken the low and upstream cold air dumping.

[Iceresistance]

I may get an insane rollercoaster ride myself! 70s tomorrow and 40s Wednesday!

[jakerepp]

Ugh, hope everyone enjoys this week! I'll be living vicariously through this forum while sipping a gin and tonic on the back patio in shorts and a t shirt...but you know I'd rather be trapsing through the snow