November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[lowlandsnow]

Looks like less snowfall so far

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Current 30F here in Victoria with outflow modest outflow winds and a 19F dewpoint. That's actually pretty remarkable for early evening with a mixed atmosphere when most of the outflow zones were barely at freezing yesterday evening, even as far as Lytton. This setup isn't as nice, but it reminds me a bit of last Jan 5th earlier this year when the outflow arrived just as the system was coming ashore. Many models showed a changeover to rain, but it never quite happened and we ended up with 8" of snow. Could easily stay as snow to the north of here, I just hope we don't get shadowed.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 3:

4 Run Trend:

[SnarkyGoblin]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Looks like less snowfall so far

 

lol.  not by much and still very unrealistic totals in the Central Sound, at least.

[Nov1985]

What's the record?

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 4:

4 Run Trend:

[Hawksfan2008]

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

lol.  not by much and still very unrealistic totals in the Central Sound, at least.

If there isn't at least 40 inches it's a bad GFS run

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Nov1985 said:

00Z NAM actually looks like fun. Weeeee!

 

I love that little low that hooks around the south end of the Olympics.  With any bit of luck OLM to SW King County could do well with the event later in the week.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Ground zero again. That is not going to change at all I think!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Devastating trends

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

If there isn't at least 40 inches it's a bad GFS run

True.  We need a lot of extra cushion with that model.

[Snownerd3000]

This is looking a little bit colder. Barely above freezing in Central sound Wed in our warmup. Temps plummet Wed night. Thursday is going to be an icy mess if this verifies 

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

If there isn't at least 40 inches it's a bad GFS run

You are wise!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ground zero again. That is not going to change at all I think!

GFS went from about 24 inches in Seattle through Friday on the 12Z run down to 15 inches on the 00Z run.   

[Nov1985]

Portland! 

Sorry I can't post GFS 10:1 snowfall total maps, my router filters porn and other obscenities. 

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS doesn't have as good of a track with the Friday-Saturday system compared to the 18z but it is still a good improvement over the 12z. Approaches us further north than the 18z but it is still acceptable for PDX at least. Rain to snow situation as the low sinks south and offshore flow increases. 

 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 5:

4 Run Trend

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS went from about 24 inches in Seattle through Friday on the 12Z run down to 15 inches on the 00Z run.   

Good sign, he's sobered up and gave is our real totals 

[Doinko]

Just now, Perturbed Member said:

00z GFS doesn't have as good of a track with the Friday-Saturday system compared to the 18z but it is still a good improvement over the 12z. Approaches us further north than the 18z but it is still acceptable for PDX at least. Rain to snow situation as the low sinks south and offshore flow increases. 

 

 

Keeps temps pretty cool throughout the day as well

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

True.  We need a lot of extra cushion with that model.

What time do you good folks think it will start snowing on Tuesday? 

[Snownerd3000]

Thurs high temps 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Good sign, he's sobered up and gave is our real totals 

If this pattern delivers almost a foot and half of snow to downtown Seattle in 4 days it will still be truly amazing.    It doesn't look wet enough overall.    I imagine a massive overrunning AR event to achieve that kind of snow to Seattle.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS went from about 24 inches in Seattle through Friday on the 12Z run down to 15 inches on the 00Z run.   

Devastating developmentz.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

What time do you good folks think it will start snowing on Tuesday? 

Seems earlier with every run.    Late morning now.

[Hawksfan2008]

GFS keeps offshore flow much longer than the mesoscale models. EURO in between. That will make all the difference. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If this pattern delivers almost a foot and half of snow to downtown Seattle in 4 days it will still be truly amazing.    It doesn't look wet enough overall.    I imagine a massive overrunning AR event to achieve that kind of snow to Seattle.

Each flake is as big as a snowman’s head of course. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

God this will be close for Portland… less snow then the 18z

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

What time do you good folks think it will start snowing on Tuesday? 

Around 10 am

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 6:

4 Run Trend:

[TacomaWx]

This is gonna be a sleepless week. Not the arctic event we thought we would see when we were watching the models a few days back…but doesn’t necessarily have to be that for some good stuff to happen. Looks like it might snow while I’m at work tomorrow. Unfortunately won’t be in the best location about 140’ of elevation in Kent. 

[snow_wizard]

The second act is looking for the Tacoma area.  Tomorrow night could be huge for some places in the Central Sound.

[SnowPlz]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The second act is looking for the Tacoma area.  Tomorrow night could be huge for some places in the Central Sound.

What time would it switch back to snow? 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

GFS keeps offshore flow much longer than the mesoscale models. EURO in between. That will make all the difference. 

I truly have no idea what will happen with that detail out here.    I have noticed that the models are showing more of a SE flow tomorrow night rather than straight easterly.   I remember some our biggest snowstorms (when it never really scours out) is when the flow is straight easterly through the pass.    Really tough to forecast... not sure how it will play out.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS Day 6:

4 Run Trend:

I am very interested to see how that plays out.  Our best shot for some real cold out of this.

[FroYoBro]

It would be fun to get a little snow Friday night/Saturday morning since I don’t work Saturdays. 

Looks very borderline at this point though. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

And I cannot repeat the word exchange between Jesse and Cliff Mass…Those two really do not like each other! 
In other news… Down to 26.2 degrees! 

Is there anyone Professor Mass does like?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The GFS keeps 850mb temperatures below freezing right through to the blast early next week. Good thing to have if the lower atmosphere cooperates. Still shows a second more Arctic-influenced blast Sunday night -

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnowPlz said:

What time would it switch back to snow? 

Late evening Wednesday night it appears.  That's when 925mb temps get to the no doubt about it stage.