November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 7:

4 Run Trend:

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

What time do you good folks think it will start snowing on Tuesday? 

They all seem to point to 10am to 1pm to pick up in central Sound. However mostly it looks like the heavy stuff won't hit until evening rush hour or later. My teen has orders to bolt home as soon as school is out, or I pick up if the roads are white.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS Day 7:

4 Run Trend:

Good trend east on the ridge.

[Perturbed Member]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

God this will be close for Portland… less snow then the 18z

There are going to be massive differences in outcomes based on how far north/south that low approaches. The 12z came in a bit north and that resulted in basically 0 snow for PDX. Overall the trend today has been south on the GFS and Euro. Hopefully that continues. 

[Gradient Keeper]

OH !!! I sooo wish the GFS was correct.

[Gradient Keeper]

Darn ridge support didn't hold.

[bainbridgekid]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS went from about 24 inches in Seattle through Friday on the 12Z run down to 15 inches on the 00Z run.   

00z still shows 19" for Seattle on the Kuchera map. Crazy consistent in its absurdity.

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GFS Day 7:

4 Run Trend:

That ridge bridge looks impressive 

[snow_wizard]

The third act gets pretty cold on this run, but with a bit of back digging it could get really cold.

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Darn ridge support didn't hold.

The darn Greenland ridge is hogging it all! Share the ridge bridge! 

[TacomaWx]

Nice little cold shot at the beginning of next week. I’m not even worried about next week right now though this weeks gonna be good.
 I’m still just baffled at the turnaround on the models. This was in serious bust territory then it all changed. Don’t think I can recall a time where we went from excellent runs, to terrible runs then back to some really good stuff very close to an event. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Darn ridge support didn't hold.

There is no way it would with that strong trough cutting its head off.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 8:

[TT-SEA]

Recommendation... get lots of sleep tonight.    You will thank yourself the next 2 nights.   

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Darn ridge support didn't hold.

Lots of time for that to change.  We just need the back dig.

[MikeInEverett]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Nice little cold shot at the beginning of next week. I’m not even worried about next week right now though this weeks gonna be good.
 I’m still just baffled at the turnaround on the models. This was in serious bust territory then it all changed. Don’t think I can recall a time where we went from excellent runs, to terrible runs then back to some really good stuff very close to an event. 

February 2019!

[Deweydog]

Grappled with the graupel on our way home this evening!

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

42 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Remember, whoever posts the thread title should include something mundane or boring.

edited for grammar.

December 2022 PNW Weather Discussion #YaddaYaddaYadda

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Nice little cold shot at the beginning of next week. I’m not even worried about next week right now though this weeks gonna be good.
 I’m still just baffled at the turnaround on the models. This was in serious bust territory then it all changed. Don’t think I can recall a time where we went from excellent runs, to terrible runs then back to some really good stuff very close to an event. 

Randy pointed out the other day that we went through the same thing leading up to early February 2019.    

[FroYoBro]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Recommendation... get lots of sleep tonight.    You will thank yourself the next 2 nights.   

Two night forum orgy at your place?

[snow_wizard]

The cold just keeps on giving.  We are on a roll right now.  Coldest November in almost 30 years a lock now.

[Gradient Keeper]

500mb pattern though is very plausible any lows diving to our south would pull in a colder east wind.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Randy pointed out the other day that we went through the same thing leading up to early February 2019.    

I don’t remember 2019 changing so drastically within 36-48 hours of an event. This was pretty much dead in the water then it turned around completely. Then again it has been almost 4 years since 2019. Time flys. 

[bainbridgekid]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Recommendation... get lots of sleep tonight.    You will thank yourself the next 2 nights.   

I've been pretty exhausted for nearly every snowstorm I've ever experienced. But the leadup of analysis is just as fun as the actual storm for me, and adrenaline kicks in once flakes start flying. The crash always comes after though and I pay for it then.

[Gradient Keeper]

Root for jet suppression!!!!

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 9:

[SouthHillFrosty]

Very nervous rn….. South king is right on the line…….. sleepless nights ahead

[bainbridgekid]

00z WRF hot off the presses.

 

[SnowWillarrive]

Despite all the watches and advisories the NWS seems pretty hesitant to pull the trigger in their discussion. 

[Cloud]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

00z WRF hot off the presses.

 

Look like a good 2” for Seattle. 1-3” is a decent bet. 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Despite all the watches and advisories the NWS seems pretty hesitant to pull the trigger in their discussion. 

We'll see what happens with King tonight. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

23 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Each flake is as big as a snowman’s head of course. 

Snowman yes, but not a snowmonster head. Those are rare indeed.

[TT-SEA]

Just to contrast the GFS... here is the 00Z GEM through Thursday evening.     Throw us a bone Canada!    Portland does better than Seattle.   

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GFS keeps 925mb temperatures in the Salish Sea below freezing right through tomorrow evening. In many places it never goes above freezing. 

the warm sector collapses by Wednesday afternoon, and there's nothing to drive a warmup from there on - 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS Day 10:

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS 10 Day Precip:

Snowfall:

[bainbridgekid]

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Rich Marriott wrote that. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

Yeah, the AFD doesn't really line up with their watches/warnings

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

yeesh