Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 High clouds already starting to reach the NW Tip of Washington. I can't believe how fast this system is moving. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1.33km WRF. Around an inch by 7pm tomorrow. But remember guys, this is NOT a snow depth map!!! 2 2 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Quick and dirty map of what I'm expecting. With the caveat that there's about a 10-15% chance of busting on both the high and low side of these totals IMO. 4 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Arctic blasts. Epic snowstorms. Ski resort wet (white) dreams. Inversions. Literally a perfect run, no complaints. Starting to flurry again outside. 28F. The vibes are good. Interesting, no flakes in Ravenna. 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Quick and dirty map of what I'm expecting. With the caveat that there's about a 10-15% chance of busting on both the high and low side of these totals IMO. How dare you put me in the purple circle lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Wasn't a great EURO run down this way, but I can definitely give it credit for keeping the hope alive. I'd bet some small tweaks would keep some from completely losing out. 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Quick and dirty map of what I'm expecting. With the caveat that there's about a 10-15% chance of busting on both the high and low side of these totals IMO. Add 3 inches for all of eastern King County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 31.3 near West Gresham! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 31 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The low track isn’t all that critical. The air mass just isn’t particularly cold. The airmass is decent the morning before that low arrives. Mid to upper 20s at the surface and -7c 850mb. We get a southerly breeze as the low approaches though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1.33km WRF 10pm tmrw. 2+ inches total snowfall anywhere north of Lake Union. 3 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 32F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 What's the record number of pages in a month on TWFs? 1 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: 25.2F here already the coldest night of the season. My low temp for 2022 so far occurred at 12:14 am on January 1st. Wonder if we'll break it before the year ends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Down to 24 with the DP sitting at 12. Hating to see the donut hole for Bellingham/Whatcom County on the model run, and I am guessing it will pan out that way. I'm thinking we will see something up here, but not sure it will be worth writing home about. 1 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, gusky said: What's the record number of pages in a month on TWFs? Feb 2019, we had enough for two different threads it got so long lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, gusky said: What's the record number of pages in a month on TWFs? Feb 2019 threatened 500+ but it was split into three threads. 7 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Feb 2019 threatened 500+ but it was split into three threads. Jeez, and here I thought 258 was a lot. 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 C'mon EPS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, gusky said: Jeez, and here I thought 258 was a lot. That'll happen when it's epic and snowy for everyone here for a month straight! 4 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: Down to 24 with the DP sitting at 12. Hating to see the donut hole for Bellingham/Whatcom County on the model run, and I am guessing it will pan out that way. I'm thinking we will see something up here, but not sure it will be worth writing home about. That is seriously impressive cold for late November! 6z NAM in 10 minutes 6z GFS in 2 hours 10 minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Here's the NWS graphical forecast for new snow Wednesday by 10 a.m. The low snow total colors aren't super distinguishable from each other, but it looks like most places north of Tacoma pick up around an inch. The big winner is western Snohomish county with 2-4". 3 3 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said: Here's the NWS graphical forecast for new snow Wednesday by 10 a.m. The low snow total colors aren't super distinguishable from each other, but it looks like most places north of Tacoma pick up around an inch. The big winner is western Snohomish county with 2-4". Looks like we're going to need spotters in Aberdeen, Shelton, Olympia tomorrow morning to play radar. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said: The airmass is decent the morning before that low arrives. Mid to upper 20s at the surface and -7c 850mb. We get a southerly breeze as the low approaches though. Those surface temps seem pretty ambitious, likely needing a clear sky and full decoupling. The southerly flow seems like an inevitability based on the nature of the system. It’s basically a closed low that’s vertically-stacked. If it were an open wave the track would be a lot more crucial. If we had more of a formidable seed air mass, this might be the type of system where you could see significant snow despite the weak southerlies thanks to the fact there isn’t a ton of WAA associated with them. 6 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 33 in SE PDX 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Day 7 850s are warmer on the EPS. 1 1 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Looks like the 850s Days 7-10 have gotten warmer on the EPS. 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Cold Snap said: Day 7 850s are warmer on the EPS. How did Day 2-5 850s look? Colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 This looks pretty good. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Day 11 looks good on the EPS Control 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: This looks pretty good. Yeah for continued NWLY flow, La Nina conditions, but the ridge is too far west for any appreciable cold. I'll take it over split flow or mild SWLY/Pineapples though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: How did Day 2-5 850s look? Colder? A tad colder for days 2-3 but about the same maybe a tad warmer for days 4-5. This is day 2. 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 48 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Through Day 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 06z NAM showing some snow showers potentially making their way into Seattle tonight. 4 2 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Unless it warms up in the next hour, 6Z NAM is 8° / 3° too warm for my coordinates right out of the gate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 This escalates quickly. 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: This escalates quickly. Now THAT'S what I like to see! 1 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 It's not a great setup but I do hope at the very least those southerly winds will be a bit exciting as the front comes on shore. I have to imagine stratiform light rain as the most boring thing imaginable... 1 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 NAM starts way warm vs actual on temps but, here's last 4 for 4pm Tue 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 hrs later 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 29, 2022 Report Share Posted November 29, 2022 Small flakes falling here in north seattle with a temp of 30deg. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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