November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[The Winter Warlock]

6 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Record your barefoot walk in the snow

That’ll be $50. Or subscribe to my Onlyfans.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, gusky said:

Colder than most models, even the GFS..

Yup.. even latest 6z Euro said 35 at 10am at Seattle . only 5 degrees colder. 

[joelgombiner]

Tahola (coast) changed over from rain to snow in the last hour. Temp ticked down from 34 to 33. 

[MossMan]

Flakes starting to fall at work. (Right at I-5 east side at the Snohomish side of the Snohomish/Skagit border) 

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Wind advisory!

Here too. SE gusting to 55 turning SW gusting to 50.   Shawnigan Lake is protected from SE winds in our Valley which helps with our snow prospects but the SW winds usually hit us hard. 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like the radar kinda backfilled to the SW of Tacoma keeping the snow going longer before the main band starts up. 

[OysterPrintout]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That’s from the stratosphere. Doesn’t always translate to the surface.  Vortex looks weak

frankly i'm as concerned as you are about the gfs day 16 500mb pattern but I thought I'd look for some large scale features to help me sleep at night

[smerfylicious]

So are we crowning a new king?

King Euro is dead (for now), long live king Goofus!

[HuskyMaestro]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Yup.. even latest 6z Euro said 35 at 10am at Seattle . only 5 degrees colder. 

I wonder if the switch to rain will be much brief than modelled and we go back to snow later tonight? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Over the inch mark! Snow is winding down 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I am still concerned about the marine forecast you posted lastnight.

Small crafts should be advised.

[joelgombiner]

Meanwhile the University of Washington temperature sensor looks totally broken. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty hard to imagine PDX not hitting 50 degrees with the south wind blast later this evening and overnight. Timing should work out well where the warm spike messes up the highs for both today and tomorrow too.

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Small crafts should be advised.

Is it bad that I read this in Al Gore's voice?

[Slushy Inch]

50 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This sucker will really ramp up in a couple hrs when the good stuff rolls in. Coast radar is looking good.

Coastal radar is down though?

[yellowstone]

Just drove from Seattle to Bellevue. About a half inch so far. Pavement mostly wet except right at 520 and 405 snow on road including traffic lanes on bridges. Nice start to this!

[Deweydog]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Is it bad that I read this in Al Gore's voice?

It’s strongly encouraged.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Is it bad that I read this in Al Gore's voice?

According to him, snow should have been a thing of the past by now.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Latest HRRR has Seattle switching over to rain at 1PM and staying rain for the rest of the 18h run.  

It'll be interesting to see just how bad the HRRR can be.

[Brennan]

My assumption is that once the main band of precip arrives, so do the SE winds along with a spike in temps (at least up here in BLI). A little more optimistic for eastern portions of Whatcom County from Acme/Deming and out to Maple Falls. Expecting a lot of 37* rain. Currently 28* with a light NE breeze in town here. Feels like snow. 

[Slushy Inch]

Even higher snow amounts on new EURO for Bothell, approaching 9 inches. Less will accumulate obviously.

[The Ms. Anthrop]

2 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Meanwhile the University of Washington temperature sensor looks totally broken. 

I’m guessing that all the hot air from Professor Mass is throwing it off.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

According to him, snow should have been a thing of the past by now.

He's stored it in a lock box for safe keeping.

[fubario]

Buddy sitting on tarmac at Seatac for 2+ hours waiting for de-icing. Guess Seatac still has only one de-icer for the whole airport, huh?

[RentonHill]

Mind the Gap Winds

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Latest HRRR has Seattle switching over to rain at 1PM and staying rain for the rest of the 18h run.  

It'll be interesting to see just how bad it can be.

It's truly an awful model for anything cold or wind related.

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

I’m guessing that all the hot air from Professor Mass is throwing it off.

Either that or the roads are emitting a lot of heat. 

[Cold Snap]

Half an inch so far IMBY.

[TacomaWx]

Stop guys you’re making cliff mass angry

[Everleigh]

Up to 34.9° here.

Hopefully tomorrow brings more snow down here! 

[gusky]

12 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yup.. even latest 6z Euro said 35 at 10am at Seattle . only 5 degrees colder. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Stop guys your making cliff mass angry

Felt like going hard this morning. Especially considering he is probably reading

[Randyc321]

55 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This sucker will really ramp up in a couple hrs when the good stuff rolls in. Coast radar is looking good.

Yeah.  It looks like bulk of the precip is moving in about the time modeled.  You think the stuff this morning was just a little early bonus?

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

So are we crowning a new king?

King Euro is dead (for now), long live king Goofus!

don't get ahead of yourself, report back in 48 hours

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

According to him, snow should have been a thing of the past by now.

It's tough to tell what's going on down there from the inside of a private jet at 40,000 feet. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I wonder if the switch to rain will be much brief than modelled and we go back to snow later tonight? 

Worth keeping an eye on the DP... the air is saturated enough now where any heavy precips will bring the temps down to that level. Most areas are still below freezing for the DP. But I think once the precip rates let up, that's when we'll see the temps rise. 

SEA briefly jumped to 34 where rates let up but DP is still at 30. Latest Euro is calling for the DP to stay below freezing until 4pm today. So I guess we'll see. European may be a tad too warm. 

[Slushy Inch]

Can we acknowledge that Euro caved to GFS for north of Seattle getting big totals?

[gusky]

AFD update for this morning. Not super promising, not super discouraging. With the line near SEA metro, a couple degrees could mean snow in Seattle. Will just have to see.

[Seattle]

Realistically, how long do we hold onto the snow at let's say each of the following points Olympia/Tacoma/Seattle/Everett? 

[gusky]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Can we acknowledge that Euro caved to GFS for north of Seattle getting big totals?

It's somewhat caved for other areas too. Look at that upward trend!