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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

33˚F rain is just about the worst. So close, yet so far.

I'm genuinely curious how many major metropolitan areas have both 1) a higher number of 33/34 degree rain days, and 2) less average annual snowfall, than PDX. 

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1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A frontal system continues
to move through the area today. Southerly winds have been picking
up through the afternoon and temperatures have warmed up to the
mid 30s for the lowland interior region. Heavier precipitation
associated with the warm front has been enough to switch
precipitation type over to snow/wintery mix for areas below 1000
feet. Winter weather products have been updated to be for areas
above 1000 feet.

For areas that had winter weather products cancelled (Seattle
metro, Hood Canal, Lower Chehalis, and all areas below 1000 feet)
there remains the chance of wintery precipitation but it should be
minimal and short lived.

That's just not true. I'm at 50 feet in Bothell, it's 32 degrees, all the stations around me show 32 and it is snowing lightly.

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Currently 32 with a DP of 29 Just measures 1.5” of snow. Lightly snowing right now. It seems like the east winds are really doing their job right now but it’s looking great for me temp wise for when the main moisture arrives.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

That's just not true. I'm at 50 feet in Bothell, it's 32 degrees, all the stations around me show 32 and it is snowing lightly.

What's funny is the AFD says snow for areas 1000ft+ but the updated WWA says 4-6" above 500ft. NWS can't figure this out either. 

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Just now, KingstonWX said:

What's funny is the AFD says snow for areas 1000ft+ but the updated WWA says 4-6" above 500ft. NWS can't figure this out either. 

Why has NWS Seattle been so inconsistent with their AFDs and warnings/advisories? Hard to tell what they are communicating

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3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Why has NWS Seattle been so inconsistent with their AFDs and warnings/advisories? Hard to tell what they are communicating

I like to imagine them as a bizarro version of this forum. A bunch of people debating how they can avoid forecasting snow. 

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Either NWS Seattle is seeing something we aren't to bet against even the short-term EURO or is gonna end up with egg on their face. I could imagine them downgrading, but *dropping* the advisories altogether could be really bad as far as the public messaging side of things. But... they are the experts.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Just now, Requiem said:

Either NWS Seattle is seeing something we aren't to bet against even the short-term EURO or is gonna end up with egg on their face. 

I'm not able to at the moment, but has anyone checked current placement and track of the low? That could be it. 

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Listen the NWS is probably right to be skeptical and conservative with the snow totals. They aren't just making this stuff up and we tend to bust more than we perform when it comes to snow.

BUT, this wishy washy inconsistent AFD and Warning/Watches is really odd. It is like, if you see this thing busting, then say it clearly and have your watches/warnings match your clear statement. If you think the models are on to something, then say that and have the watches/warnings reflect that.

But they seem to be hedging more than usual. Like yesterday's watch/warning then that weird AFD. Leave the hedging to us amateurs who hedge with our friends and family so that we look right no matter what happens. lol. But take a position, support it with a reason, and have it be consistent with your watches/warnings.

This seems new. The NWS has done some weird stuff in the past, but the weird communication the last day or two has been disconcerting.

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13 minutes ago, thickhog said:

I'm genuinely curious how many major metropolitan areas have both 1) a higher number of 33/34 degree rain days, and 2) less average annual snowfall, than PDX. 

Charlotte and Raleigh would probably at least be close. They're often just barely on the wrong side of the R/S line.

Edited by BLI snowman
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1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

Listen the NWS is probably right to be skeptical and conservative with the snow totals. They aren't just making this stuff up and we tend to bust more than we perform when it comes to snow.

BUT, this wishy washy inconsistent AFD and Warning/Watches is really odd. It is like, if you see this thing busting, then say it clearly and have your watches/warnings match your clear statement. If you think the models are on to something, then say that and have the watches/warnings reflect that.

But they seem to be hedging more than usual. Like yesterday's watch/warning then that weird AFD. Leave the hedging to us amateurs who hedge with our friends and family so that we look right no matter what happens. lol. But take a position, support it with a reason, and have it be consistent with your watches/warnings.

This seems new. The NWS has done some weird stuff in the past, but the weird communication the last day or two has been disconcerting.

It’s like their different shifts each have their own opinions and whenever the morning shift or the evening shift comes on they change it back to what they want to forecast.. like what is going on lol

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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