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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember


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6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

To my untrained eye, the center of cyclonic circulation looks to be offshore the middle of Vancouver Island. image.thumb.png.5b95574e4bda2686832e7f6443ac4072.png

Both GFS and ECMWF had it on top of Vancouver Island. Then they diverge in direction, especially from the 12Z ECMWF today. It is almost on the island here.  The lowest SLP observation still says 989.

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Snowing hard at work again and definitely sticking. My work is not at 1000ft NWS Seattle. current work van view. (Just moving it in the parking lot) 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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So much snow in everyone's photos!  Very cool.  Sadly everywhere I drove was just wet roads.  Nothing exciting, but it was fun to watch the snow on the radar and see the cold temps!  I tried to drive to bigger snow bands when I could, lol.  It has snowed here all day though, from when I woke up to now.  But it's small little flakes blowing around in the wind.  Nonetheless, there are Everett city street plows on practically every block, lol. 

Also got a high wind warning while I was driving which was cool. Look forward to that... I guess?  Winds coming from the south.

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I have to say I'm pleasantly surprised by the inch or so I got today.  Not off to a bad start.  Interestingly the current temp is smack dab on 32.0 with a mix falling here.  Of course a lot of places that are warmer are getting straight snow.  Seen this so many times here.  The models indicate 925mb temps will fall a tad with the heavier precip arrives.  Could get interesting.

Doesn’t look likely here at 38 degrees but tomorrow night looks pretty good! Picked up 0.7” of snow today. 

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Hour 90 on the 18z Euro has a surface temp of 36F and a DP of 24F at PDX with an east wind at the surface as precip is arriving early Saturday AM from the approaching low. Almost looks like the low might be staying too far offshore to get all that much precip though but hard to tell without seeing what happens after. Hopefully this works out on the 00z Euro. 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Snowing hard at work again and definitely sticking. My work is not at 1000ft NWS Seattle. current work van view. (Just moving it in the parking lot) 

D9903B2D-0CB5-4B30-B2B8-764B14526E29.jpeg

The 15 miles between us makes quite a difference.  Raining and 35.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Doesn’t look likely here at 38 degrees but tomorrow night looks pretty good! Picked up 0.7” of snow today. 

Tomorrow night looks great.  the models have actually sped up the arrival of the colder air aloft by a few hours.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

why are you guys using global models for short term/nowcasting?  I'm sure the NWS is doing such and cancelling as appropriate.  (I haven't looked at any models recently, just a hunch)

Because none of the mesoscale models are at all competent. If I was looking 1 hour in the future, the HRRR, 3km NAM, RAP, and whatever other model you want to consider would be at the bottom of my list. They frequently can't even initialize correctly and have extreme changes from run to run. I wouldn't trust one to tell me if it was going to rain an hour from now let alone tell me how much snow I'm going to get.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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8 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

why are you guys using global models for short term/nowcasting?  I'm sure the NWS is not doing such and cancelling as appropriate.  (I haven't looked at any models recently, just a hunch)

HRRR shows a good amount of snow north of Seattle
snku_acc.us_nw.png

NAM
snku_acc.us_nw.png

 

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Yeah today has panned out a little bit on the disappointment side for me. Was snowing for a good chunk of the day in Maple Valley before finally switching over to rain at 2. Pretty much no accumulation on the road after this morning's burst. Which was great for driving home in, but not so great for the snow lover in me.

The little accumulation I got this morning at home melted off this afternoon, so now it's just 35 degrees and a cold, cold rain.

Shred it!

Greater Maple Valley area @ ~550' AGL

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Looks like the flurry storm may be done here. 37/33F spread and sprinkles. I guess we'll see if heavy precip rates can bring snow, but I don't think I'll end up seeing any accumulating snow today.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Shame that the southerly winds will probably warm us into the low 40s before midnight…could’ve had our first sub 40 high this season today and yesterday too but it briefly hit 40 yesterday afternoon. 
 Speaking of southerlies…could be a decent punch of wind tonight and some rain. Weather is staying pretty active inbetween snowfalls. 

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4 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Because none of the mesoscale models are at all competent. If I was looking 1 hour in the future, the HRRR, 3km NAM, RAP, and whatever other model you want to consider would be at the bottom of my list. They frequently can't even initialize correctly and have extreme changes from run to run. I wouldn't trust one to tell me if it was going to rain an hour from now let alone tell me how much snow I'm going to get.

and the globals don't have the resolution so I guess there is good and bad going either way.   Does the NBM blend it all?  I honestly don't know but curious.

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Radar really filling in over Kitsap now. Looks like the main event (precip intensity wise) is taking shape now and rates should really pick up around 6-10PM. Question is how much if that falls as snow.

 

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Shame that the southerly winds will probably warm us into the low 40s before midnight…could’ve had our first sub 40 high this season today and yesterday too but it briefly hit 40 yesterday afternoon. 
 Speaking of southerlies…could be a decent punch of wind tonight and some rain. Weather is staying pretty active inbetween snowfalls. 

Thursday looks borderline. I never trust gray snow 

06817B84-31DE-4885-88B9-30C2AE00F931.jpeg

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13 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I look forward to the panic advisories.

This is one of those situations that no doubt keeps mets up at night.

The margin for error is very slim but has huge implications for the public. And they're destined to almost certainly be very wrong some places, regardless of which model they favor or how experienced they are.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Thursday looks borderline. I never trust gray snow 

06817B84-31DE-4885-88B9-30C2AE00F931.jpeg

Temps won’t be as much of an issue tomorrow night. Todays set up has bust potential up north because it’s very precip dependent. (Still might work out up there) temps and DPs are pretty realistic for some snowfall tomorrow night. 

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

and the globals don't have the resolution so I guess there is good and bad going either way.   Does the NBM blend it all?  I honestly don't know but curious.

Yeah, the lack of resolution is problematic but at least you only have to look at bad forecasts every 12 or maybe 6 hours instead of every hour 🤣

The NBM is a crazy blend of models. I don't know if it's a constant blend or uses some sort of dynamic blending algorithm that forecasts based on the conditions/strengths and weaknesses of each model. Here are all the models included:

1093230007_ScreenShot2022-11-29at4_53_30PM.thumb.png.b8003ebd2de808ce75f3c458f817e2c9.png

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Yeah, the lack of resolution is problematic but at least you only have to look at bad forecasts every 12 or maybe 6 hours instead of every hour 🤣

The NBM is a crazy blend of models. I don't know if it's a constant blend or uses some sort of dynamic blending algorithm that forecasts based on the conditions/strengths and weaknesses of each model. Here are all the models included:

1093230007_ScreenShot2022-11-29at4_53_30PM.thumb.png.b8003ebd2de808ce75f3c458f817e2c9.png

Just about to post something similar.   Here is what I found:

NBM Background:
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is a complicated process with millions of observations and calculations needed to create a single forecast. At the top of each hour of the day, the NBM processes NWP output from both the National Center of Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) operational job stream and several non-American NWP weather sources. The NBM ingests and bias corrects a host of weather elements and determines the optimum weights to be assigned to each model when generating a final blended forecast. Simply put, the NBM takes whatever models are available from 31 different model systems (for rainfall forecasts a total of 171 inputs) and combines the information into a single forecast. Intense research into model performance over time has given today’s meteorologists a baseline of known model biases.  Verification of the NBM output has shown that this methodology consistently outperforms individual model runs over time leading to a more accurate and consistent dataset of available guidance.

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