November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[mtep]

Almost up to 36 and raining here in Happy Valley/S Bham. It transitioned so fast this time.  I had some positive splats/bursts of snow on the drive home from work on the northwest end of town. Maybe we'll get hit with a nice chunk of moisture to bring the snow level back down at some point tonight, but I dont think any accumulation will last until the morning based on the way things are going. This event has me in full weiner mode rn. Hopefully the GFS is right (lol) and we get another shot at greatness sometime over the next week. 

[Art_Digbee]

From the far east side of Orcas Island: the wind is switching over to southerly just now and the temp has risen from 33 to 36 in the last hour. We had a solid dusting of snow earlier which has melted off now. The wind is really starting to pick up...

All told, I got some big fat flakes and some good wind, so I'm happy.

[Guest administrator]

Still 32º and snowing in Everett. Looking over the NWS actions, I am leaning with their calls for this to be a non event outside of some mood setting snow today. On to the next reset.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Katzen said:

Drove home through rain til I got home and was greeted with beautiful snow. It is still snowing and sticking, but very windy.

A little South of Squak Mt just under 500 ft

I don't know if it is the lighting or a good mix of things to look at, but this pix is asthetically pleasing.

[joelgombiner]

South winds are winning! Might be snowier if the Cascades didn't exist. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

1 hour ago, SeanNyberg said:

Listen the NWS is probably right to be skeptical and conservative with the snow totals. They aren't just making this stuff up and we tend to bust more than we perform when it comes to snow.

BUT, this wishy washy inconsistent AFD and Warning/Watches is really odd. It is like, if you see this thing busting, then say it clearly and have your watches/warnings match your clear statement. If you think the models are on to something, then say that and have the watches/warnings reflect that.

But they seem to be hedging more than usual. Like yesterday's watch/warning then that weird AFD. Leave the hedging to us amateurs who hedge with our friends and family so that we look right no matter what happens. lol. But take a position, support it with a reason, and have it be consistent with your watches/warnings.

This seems new. The NWS has done some weird stuff in the past, but the weird communication the last day or two has been disconcerting.

Looks like Cliff Mass got it right.  He was skewered here last night for saying this will be mostly a non-event.  As much as I think he's a bit arrogant, I've got to give him his props on this one.

[MossMan]

Snow picking up again. 

[gusky]

4 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Looks like Cliff Mass got it right.  He was skewered here last night for saying this will be mostly a non-event.  As much as I think he's a bit arrogant, I've got to give him his props on this one.

I've got to admit that even I have participated in the somewhat irrational hype around the snow. I just want to believe whatever is telling me there will be more snow, but all signs (NWS, Cliff, etc.) were pointing to a bust. Gotta work on being more rational in the future.

[gusky]

Here in North Seattle, best I've had since the morning dusting is a couple snowflakes mixed in with the rain. Absolutely gutted that we couldn't get anything this evening. On to model watching for Wed/Thurs!

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Snow picking up again. 

Crazy, nothin but rain here and almost 36 degrees

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

I've got to admit that even I have participated in the somewhat irrational hype around the snow. I just want to believe whatever is telling me there will be more snow, but all signs (NWS, Cliff, etc.) were pointing to a bust. Gotta work on being more rational in the future.

To be fair, even NWS was semi on board yesterday when they issued the advisories and the warnings. That’s when I thought this had the possibility of actually happening.

[snow maniac]

Crazy its snowing hard just 3 miles west of me. And just slushy rain here

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Looks like Cliff Mass got it right.  He was skewered here last night for saying this will be mostly a non-event.  As much as I think he's a bit arrogant, I've got to give him his props on this one.

Cliff is celebrating tonight. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I don't think I've ever seen an event where almost everyone was on the snowline.  RMAOFL.

[Skagit Weather]

No idea what the 00z NAM is thinking, but it actually models current temps (and dew points) pretty well and then drops temperatures by 10 degrees into the mid 20s by 10 p.m. I can't see any mechanism for this, but I'd be all for it happening.

[MikeInEverett]

Moderate snow still falling and blowing around, also starting to stick to some side streets again.

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I don't think I've ever seen an event where almost everyone was on the snowline.  RMAOFL.

Being just below the snow line is one of the most infuriating things I've experienced. 

 

I guess you could say I've become Comfortably Numb.

[TacomaWx]

39 here and moderate rain with breezy S winds. Pretty disappointing stuff for up north…atleast some snow fell up there. Can’t see things cooling off dramatically enough for many people overnight although I think some very favored locations will still do well. 

[Terreboner]

If it makes you guys feel any better, I'm sitting at close to 3000' ASL and will get just a rain/snow mix.  Currently 34.6 deg.

[Gummy]

11 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

Looks like Cliff Mass got it right.  He was skewered here last night for saying this will be mostly a non-event.  As much as I think he's a bit arrogant, I've got to give him his props on this one.

I guess, it wasn't the toughest call though. The low placement was poor and the small cold pool that filtered in yesterday was rather pedestrian.

[Katzen]

BIG flakes blowing every which way

[Poulsbo Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

If it makes you guys feel any better, I'm sitting at close to 3000' ASL and will get just a rain/snow mix.  Currently 34.6 deg.

You would think that would help, but it doesn't.

[Skagit Weather]

Wow! All the way up to 40F here! Wasn't expecting it to get that warm tonight!

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

You would think that would help, but it doesn't.

Not when you are this far south of the low.  Will switch over tomorrow night for a bit once the low drops down and eventually almost over us.

[GHweatherChris]

What did the 18Z Euro show for tomorrow night/Thursday morning, similar to the GFS?

 

[Phishy Wx]

45 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Almost time to let this eat

I have the same machine.  it's about to get a big workout

[SouthHillFrosty]

What are we thinking about tomorrow tonight? Also bust?

[gusky]

Nanaimo, BC right now. The big winners from this storm.

 

[Terreboner]

It did just drop to 33.1 since I typed that post though.  Never know around here...the winds are from the E/SE so I'm not very optimistic.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

What did the 18Z Euro show for tomorrow night/Thursday morning, similar to the GFS?

 

Wednesday evening through Thursday evening...

 

[Guest administrator]

Just now, gusky said:

Nanaimo, BC right now. The big winners from this storm.

 

3 inches =/= "Snowmegeddon"

[HoodCanalBridge]

Still big, wet flakes falling.   Accumulating on road and grass is pretty much covered.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wednesday evening through Thursday evening...

 

Based on how close we are to this event and model consensus…I feel pretty good about a lot of places south of Seattle getting 1-2” inches tomorrow night…maybe some locally higher amounts. This isn’t the same situation as today that was always very tenuous. 

[gusky]

4 minutes ago, administrator said:

3 inches =/= "Snowmegeddon"

For November, I'm ok with that terminology.

[selkirks]

Heavy (for us) rain right now near U-Village.

[Snownerd3000]

Snow has picked up in Woodinville. Starting to accumulate on the roads and feels like an east wind. Out walking the pup and it is cold! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, gusky said:

Nanaimo, BC right now. The big winners from this storm.

 

Nanaimo is one of the best areas for lowland snow. They had  over 50 cm on the ground last New Years Day.

[MikeInEverett]

Snohomish county still might do pretty good with this

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Honestly, none of this should be a big surprise. With the exception of the GooFuS, none of the models were all that snowy. Sure, there were lots of pretty colors on the snowfall maps, but a quick sanity-check of temperatures and dew points showed lots of phantom snow.

Even the quick transition to rain at BLI is not a surprise; last night when I checked the ECMWF and the HRRR, both were calling for it.

[bainbridgekid]

Still all snow here in South Everett. 32.7 degrees. Side roads starting to slush up pretty good with an inch on non paved surfaces. Radar certainly looks good if we can hold on as snow.