November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tomorrow night could be good one.

It doesn't look very impressive on the meso models for some reason. But a low approaching like that is the sweet spot for the Puget Sound and south.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[TT-SEA]

Not sure what it means for out here... but it looks like its turned to rain now at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit on I-90 at about 900 feet.

[Doinko]

Mark Nelsen is not as negative about our chances anymore!
 

Another cold upper trough drops down offshore Friday and spins up another wet frontal system. Models are all over the place on this one. The normally cold GFS thinks we’ve got a snow and then ice storm Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECMWF is much drier and has the system farther offshore. But it IS cold enough with a strong easterly Gorge wind that moisture would be in the form of snow/ice. So Friday evening/night is another possible “event” I’m watching closely. There is also plenty of cold/dry arctic air lingering just north of us through early next week. That means at any time some of that could get pulled south and interact with Pacific moisture as we’re seeing this evening. Winter is here for the forecasters and it’s busy!

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I trust the GFS for the Seattle/Tacoma area much more tomorrow night since the air mass will be colder and all the models agree on that.  

Definitely not the same situation as today at all. Gotta get some more agreement on how much precip we’re working with though. The euro doesn’t show as much precip as some other models do. FWIW the cmc stepped up their total snowfall but there’s a sharp cutoff south of king county unlike the gfs. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I trust the GFS for the Seattle/Tacoma area much more tomorrow night since the air mass will be colder and all the models agree on that.  

It’s putting out these temps…. This won’t happen 

[thickhog]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Would be nice to get the euro on board for this.

Super marginal. I’m guessing that PDX metro gets shut out while the west hills and maybe the eastside get a couple inches. Forest Grove could do well. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This Would be really nice

Gorge wind starts blowing keeping us cool enough for snow. Starts out marginal, I hope we don't have something like a repeat of 2/9/2019

Just feels like we will be too warm, especially west metro. Not feeling this one...

[North_County]

5 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

This bust was bigger than most but I can't help but feel like there's always a bust (just not this big) to start the season, then everyone downplays the models when they predict snow afterwards, only to see some of us get shocked when something verifies and people get surprised in the middle of a commute or workday. It's fascinating how finicky our microclimates are here in the PNW and how difficult this can be, but I'm excited to see what's next. 

It doesn't help that our snow events almost always seem to be incredibly borderline. The bust potential is crazy high.

[Snownerd3000]

JFC, just was issued another winter weather advisory. Dropped ot down to 2 additional inches by tomorrow 4pm

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not sure what it means out here... but it looks like its turned to rain now at the Snoqualmie Ridge exit on I-90 at about 900 feet.

What a weird event. I went up to 30 briefly and just dropped back down to 29. Blowing snow. Might be right on the edge. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen is not as negative about our chances anymore!
 

Another cold upper trough drops down offshore Friday and spins up another wet frontal system. Models are all over the place on this one. The normally cold GFS thinks we’ve got a snow and then ice storm Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECMWF is much drier and has the system farther offshore. But it IS cold enough with a strong easterly Gorge wind that moisture would be in the form of snow/ice. So Friday evening/night is another possible “event” I’m watching closely. There is also plenty of cold/dry arctic air lingering just north of us through early next week. That means at any time some of that could get pulled south and interact with Pacific moisture as we’re seeing this evening. Winter is here for the forecasters and it’s busy!

This makes me feel better. I put a lot of stock in Mark's analysis. Really need euro to get on board tho.

[Cloud]

Uh huh….

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This was also our biggest November snowfall since 2010 as well. 2017 and 2014 only had 1/2” an inch. Big November snow just isn’t very common and even modest events only come around every 5 years or so it seems. 

That has always been the case.  Even way back it was erratic in November.  Sometimes we get a really big one though.

[Nov1985]

'bout 3 1/4", was 1.75" sometime around 5pm. Snow is lighter for the moment. 31.6°/31.1°

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

What a weird event. I went up to 30 briefly and just dropped back down to 29. Blowing snow. Might be right on the edge. 

On the night of 2/11/19 it turned to rain at Snoqualmie Ridge and took another 12 hours before it stopped snowing in North Bend just 6 miles away.    There ended up being much more snow 500 feet lower in North Bend.

[SouthHillJimmy]

Only got a dusting here this morning, changed to rain quickly. Excited to see what tomorrow night brings! Hopefully will see a couple inches 

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Mark Nelsen is not as negative about our chances anymore!
 

Another cold upper trough drops down offshore Friday and spins up another wet frontal system. Models are all over the place on this one. The normally cold GFS thinks we’ve got a snow and then ice storm Friday night into Saturday morning. The ECMWF is much drier and has the system farther offshore. But it IS cold enough with a strong easterly Gorge wind that moisture would be in the form of snow/ice. So Friday evening/night is another possible “event” I’m watching closely. There is also plenty of cold/dry arctic air lingering just north of us through early next week. That means at any time some of that could get pulled south and interact with Pacific moisture as we’re seeing this evening. Winter is here for the forecasters and it’s busy!

Sounds really interesting now. The other day I believe he said there would be no cold east wind for the week ahead. I'm glad that changed!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It’s putting out these temps…. This won’t happen 

This thing is really messed up. Add 10 degrees to those.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Is that Santa or the 18z GFS? 

Would explain why an inch or 2 of snow seems like it is 20 when it's up to his nose (but his nose is in the ground).

 

[bainbridgekid]

I-5 looks insane in Shoreline. So close yet so far for Seattle tonight.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This thing is really messed up. Add 10 degrees to those.

How many more degrees should we add to Friday morning with the single digits readings? 20? 🫣

[Winterdog]

10 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

It is seriously a worthless model....

It still makes the hairs on my legs stand up though

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

I-5 looks insane in Shoreline. So close yet so far for Seattle tonight.

Wow!   

[MossMan]

And the rain just turned to puking snow. 
33.2

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Uh huh….

Cool so in agreement with the 12z Thanksgiving Euro. 

November 2006, I worked in those conditions so it is possible 

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Uh huh….

850s at -8 -9

[Slushy Inch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022

WAZ556-301200-
/O.EXA.KSEW.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-221201T0000Z/
Bellevue and Vicinity-
including Bellevue, Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview,
Kirkland, Newcastle, Redmond, Sammamish, and Issaquah
800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one
  inch.

* WHERE...Bellevue and vicinity, including Mill Creek, Kenmore,
  Kirkland, and Issaquah.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions in Washington state, call 5 1 1.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Uh huh….

If there is snow on the ground and it's clear I could see the upper teens being possible.  No matter what we have several days of cold weather coming up.  We are on a roll right now.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Seattle WA
800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022

WAZ556-301200-
/O.EXA.KSEW.WW.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-221201T0000Z/
Bellevue and Vicinity-
including Bellevue, Bothell, Kenmore, Mill Creek, Clearview,
Kirkland, Newcastle, Redmond, Sammamish, and Issaquah
800 PM PST Tue Nov 29 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one
  inch.

* WHERE...Bellevue and vicinity, including Mill Creek, Kenmore,
  Kirkland, and Issaquah.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions in Washington state, call 5 1 1.

URGENT! 

1" of snow

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

On the night of 2/11/19 it turned to rain at Snoqualmie Ridge and took another 12 hours before it stopped snowing in North Bend.    There ended up being much more snow 500 feet lower in North Bend.

The beauty of microclimates. Washington is dull 90+% of the time but pretty cool when we get these dynamic events. Thanks for sharing! 

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

And the rain just turned to puking snow. 
33.2

How was Randy getting rain when it's snowing in south SnoCo? Crazy stuff going on.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Cool so in agreement with the 12z Thanksgiving Euro. 

November 2006, I worked in those conditions so it is possible 

Next frame at 4am actually shows it down to 6.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

URGENT! 

1" of snow

It might be more! NWS has been indecisive with this event. Heaviest banding is just beginning.

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Would be nice to get the euro on board for this.

Low is in as good of a spot as we could ask for, at least.

[Skagit Weather]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If there is snow on the ground and it's clear I could see the upper teens being possible.  No matter what we have several days of cold weather coming up.  We are on a roll right now.

The problem is that the GFS (and the Euro to some extent) seems to really be overdoing the surface cooling from snow. Recently if the model thinks there's snow on the ground the temperatures are 10-15 degrees cooler than other locations. I've been noticing it on the models for the last couple weeks. So the GFS assumes there will be snow on the ground and automatically drops the temperatures to the single digits or low teens.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Low is in as good of a spot as we could ask for, at least.

Ideally it would move toward shore a bit and then stall.

[bainbridgekid]

This looks like it means business. Shoreline to Stanwood looks to continue to get nailed as long as this stays snow.